Today (February 9), the pork sector strengthened significantly. As of the closing, the sector index rose by more than 3%. In terms of individual stocks, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , xinjinnong rose by the limit, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) , Hunan Zhenghong Science And Technology Develop Co.Ltd(000702) and other stocks led the rise. Although the pork price continues to be depressed and the performance forecast of listed pig enterprises generally shows losses, the pork sector has continued to strengthen recently. As of today's closing, the sector index has risen nearly 5% in the three trading days since this week.
pig prices remained depressed, and listed pig enterprises generally lost
According to the news, according to the monitoring of the national development and Reform Commission, the national average pig grain price ratio was 5.57:1 in the week from January 24 to 28, which was between 5:1 and 6:1 for three consecutive weeks, entering the level II early warning range of excessive decline set in the plan for improving the regulation mechanism of government pork reserves and ensuring the supply and price stability of the pork market. The national development and Reform Commission will work with relevant departments to start the collection and storage of pork reserves as appropriate, and guide local governments to carry out the collection and storage according to regulations.
At present, pork prices continue to weaken. According to the data of China pig breeding network, as of February 9, the price of live pigs (foreign three yuan) was only 13.57 yuan / kg. Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that from the current market pattern, the support of goods preparation demand for the Spring Festival is less than expected, and it is expected that China's demand may fall significantly after the Spring Festival, while the slaughter volume of farms does not decrease, and the supply and demand pattern may still show a trend of strong supply and weak demand. At the same time, the market is generally pessimistic about the pig price after the year, and the phenomenon of trampling on the pig price cannot be ruled out.
Note: price of live pigs (foreign three yuan) (as of February 9)
Pork prices are depressed, and enterprises generally suffer serious losses. According to the recently released performance forecast for 2021, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) and Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) net profit losses attributable to their parents exceed 10 billion yuan, and New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) and Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) also rank first in terms of performance losses. Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) is the only major pig farmers with high production capacity, but it still has a year-on-year decrease of more than 70%. In terms of the reasons for the loss, the price of live pigs fell sharply. At the same time, due to the continuous rise in the price of feed raw materials, the outsourcing of some pig seedlings for fattening and the continuous promotion of pig breeding optimization, the cost of raising pigs was pushed up, and the profit of pig breeding business of pig enterprises decreased significantly year-on-year, resulting in deep losses.
the market is waiting for the inflection point of the industry cycle, and brokers intensively recommend the current configuration
After the festival, pork stocks rose day after day. As of today's closing (February 9), Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) rose more than 15%, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) rose more than 9%, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) rose more than 7%, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) rose more than 6%. The strength of pork stocks, on the one hand, benefited from the fact that the price ratio of pig grain entered the secondary warning range of excessive decline, and the pork collection and storage work is expected to start. On the other hand, the market is expected to accelerate the clearing of production capacity under the continuous loss of the industry, so as to seek the opportunity and layout of the overall reversal of the pork sector.
Note: performance of pork stocks since this month (closing on February 9)
AVIC Securities pointed out that the game of the pig sector has entered the 3.0 stage. In the transaction, considering that the capital market has reflected the expectation of a certain pig cycle reversal, it is suggested to pay attention to the fluctuation caused by the short-term price reduction and production reduction. However, on the whole, the low pig price in the third quarter and the extreme value of the sector breeding loss also mean that the most pessimistic expectation of the sector has been released, and there is a safety margin down the sector. From the recent breeding profits, the self breeding and outsourcing piglet breeding profits have entered the loss range one after another, and the capacity removal will be accelerated. Bargain hunting intervention is a more appropriate strategy. However, this round of pig cycle will return to the Epic Cycle of 19 years, which does not have the external environment of environmental protection and non plague impact on production capacity. It is suggested to maintain rational expectations.
For the current pork sector, securities companies have collectively expressed optimism in the near future. China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities believes that the deep loss mode of pig breeding also means that the upward trend of the pig cycle in the future is more certain. The cycle goes back and forth. The loss period of the pig cycle is the risk release period, which brings a higher safety margin to the investment. It is the best layout point for long-term funds to intervene in breeding stocks in the loss season. Of course, there must be fluctuations during the period. The suboptimal time point is that before the second bottom of the pig price, it will be a better time point for configuration, that is, what we call the present. Both the logical level and the data backtracking level point to grasp the current configuration opportunity of the pig cycle.
Kaiyuan securities also pointed out that the off-season of pig consumption has come, in the first half of 2022, we need to continue to pay attention to three aspects to verify the rhythm of pig cycle reversal: (1) changes in feed prices; (2) Changes of slaughter average weight of pigs; (3) Price changes of piglets and breeding pigs. Key aspects of breeding {123567} specific {123567} recommended {123567}; The recovery of production indicators is accelerated, and the cost is reduced by Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) ; Cycle reversal drives Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) with excellent performance elasticity; Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) with both breeding cost and capital advantages; Relevant beneficial objects Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) .
