Cast base Z generation, Z brother is the most realistic.
It was almost destroyed by the regiment yesterday. Today it’s finally back to blood.
In fact, the Shanghai stock index has been positive for three consecutive years since the year of the tiger. The key is that the gem index also rebounded today, with a good strength, up 1.3%. Today, more than 3000 stocks in the two cities rose, and more than 100 stocks rose by more than 10%. I believe that this evening, the net value of the fund should also be a general rise. You can get some blood back.
After the closing, a friend said that today’s stock market is finally “dilemma reversal”. I don’t know how long it can last?
In fact, “dilemma reversal” is an important main line of the current market, and may even be an important main line of this year’s market. Since this year, the index has fallen sharply, but the theme of “dilemma reversal” is the most sustainable opportunity.
When it comes to “dilemma reversal”, the first thing I think of is the aviation, tourism, hotels and other sectors that have encountered difficulties due to the epidemic.
Today, Air China Limited(601111) hit a new high in this round of market. The plight of aviation stocks is easy to understand. Due to the epidemic, the global aviation demand has fallen sharply, and the flights of Chinese airlines have also decreased significantly. It is inevitable that the performance of aviation stocks is poor. Last August, Air China’s share price bottomed out. At that time, we didn’t react to the logic of hyping aviation stocks. Now, the cumulative increase has exceeded 70%. At the same time, China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) are out of the strong trend market.
Let’s look at tourist hotels. The downturn in the tourism market has lasted for more than two years because of the epidemic, and it has only recovered to 70% in 2019 by the Spring Festival this year. However, both listed companies in scenic spots and hotel stocks have gone out of their own market.
In addition to aviation, tourism and hotels, there is another important sector, which also began to appear the market of “dilemma reversal”, which is the pork sector. Today, Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , and the heavyweight Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) on the gem have all performed very well. Especially Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , it is the only one of the heavyweights on the gem to hit a new high recently.
So how to grasp the opportunity in the dilemma reversal?
Brother Z thinks that first of all, we should make sure that the difficulties faced by industries in trouble must be temporary and will not be difficult forever. If we make sure of this, their reversal is inevitable.
For example, aviation, tourism and hotels, their plight is caused by the epidemic. However, the epidemic cannot last forever. With the significant increase of vaccination penetration, this dilemma is bound to pass gradually. Therefore, the future opportunities of such companies are inevitable.
Pork concept stocks, previously because of the sharp decline in pork prices, led to difficulties in the industry. However, the demand for pork is rigid, and the pork price is cyclical, so the reversal of the industry dilemma is also expected.
Earlier, brother Z introduced the value of GF managed by Lin Yingrui of GF fund, leading the aviation stocks with heavy positions, and the performance was very good. GF also has another fund manager, Wang Mingxu, who manages the balanced and preferred mix of GF, the value advantage mix of GF, and the steady and preferred six-month holding mix of GF, which are also the aviation stocks that focus on “dilemma reversal”.
The theme of dilemma reversal has actually risen a lot up to now. So, what areas are there in the future where there is the possibility of dilemma reversal?
In the view of brother Z, not all industries or companies facing difficulties have clear expectations of dilemma reversal. Some companies need to be restructured if they want to realize the reversal of fundamentals. Just like Wang Yawei, the top public offering in those years, betting on many ST shares, these companies have realized the reversal of difficulties after restructuring. However, such companies are not something that ordinary investors can grasp. It is difficult for ordinary people to grasp the basic changes of the company and the professional fields.
However, in some areas, brother Z thinks he can still pay attention to. For example, the Internet giant represented by Tencent. Over the past year, Tencent and meituan have encountered difficulties in almost the whole industry due to Internet antitrust, double reduction and other policy factors. However, brother Z believes that this dilemma should only be temporary and will not be difficult forever. When the industry warms up, they may also be the fastest to reverse. Therefore, there may be opportunities for China concept Internet funds, which fell sharply last year.
In addition to the Internet, many fields are now in trouble, such as real estate, furniture, home appliances and other real estate chains. The plight of the real estate sector is actually caused by external policy factors. But I think there is still uncertainty about whether this sector can reverse, because it depends too much on policy.
There is another question worth discussing. If the stocks involved in the dilemma reversal, when should they be sold?
The answer of Peter Lynch, the investment master, is that all the difficulties have been solved after the company has successfully turned the corner, and every investor knows that the company has made a comeback.
