Market performance: last week, Shenwan real estate closed at 3328.14 points, with a cumulative decline of 4.20%. Over the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 5.38%, the Shenzhen composite index fell by 5.00%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell by 4.51%; Horizontal comparison shows that the sector is located in the upstream.
Company dynamics: Yajule group sold four real estate equity to China overseas development, with a total consideration of 2.843 billion yuan; Shimao Group plans to sell Shanghai Bund maoyue hotel for 4.5 billion yuan.
Industry news: the central bank: support the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises and increase financial support for Housing leasing; 2022 CBRC working meeting: adhere to the positioning of housing, housing and non speculation, and implement policies for the city to promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
Land market: from January 24 to January 30, a total of 9.03 million square meters of land were sold in 100 cities across the country, with a month on month ratio of – 16.7% and a year-on-year ratio of – 57.4%; The floor price was 1254 yuan / square meter, a month on month increase of + 37.3%, a year-on-year increase of – 70.7%; The premium rate was 0.6%, 0.4% wider than last week and 13.4% narrower year-on-year.
Transaction market: from January 28 to February 3, the transaction area of new houses was 1.12 million square meters, with a month on month ratio of – 64.2% and a year-on-year ratio of – 74.6%. The cumulative transaction area since the beginning of the year was 12.39 million square meters, with a year-on-year ratio of – 35.5%. The transaction area of first tier cities last week was 390000 square meters, with a month on month ratio of – 52.9% and a year-on-year ratio of – 70.3%.
Promotion and deconvolution: from January 28 to February 3, the promotion area of commercial housing in 15 cities was 1.49 million square meters, with a month on month ratio of – 55.4% and a year-on-year ratio of – 43.5%; The decontamination cycle was 21.7 months, compared with last week + 0.6; The wholesale sales ratio (moving average in March) was 1.26, compared with -0.02 last week and -0.03 last year.
Comments on key events: Xiamen has issued new regulations on the management of commercial housing pre-sale, which has been revised from “use before retention” to “retention before use”, making it clear that all the house purchase funds paid by the pre purchaser are pre-sale funds and should be deposited into the special account for the supervision of pre-sale funds for supervision; Make it clear that the pre-sale funds shall give priority to the payment of the necessary expenses for the construction of the project before the completion of the project; Specifically, the competent department of pre-sale authorized by the new regulations can make a greater adjustment to the image progress of the project as one of the pre-sale conditions according to the needs of the development of prefabricated construction industry, the construction of resettlement commercial housing and the adjustment of pre-sale policies in special periods. The new regulations greatly enhance the flexibility of pre-sale supervision policies, and there are opportunities for real estate enterprises to improve their cash flow; Combined with the previous relaxation policies of pre-sale funds in Chengdu, Yantai and other places, the main tone of the current regulation policy is still based on “ensuring the delivery of buildings and safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers”, and the relaxation policy is relatively mild, mostly based on the refinement and flexibility of regulation rules on the basis of “ensuring the delivery of buildings”. The monthly equity sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises in January was 410.64 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 46.65% and a year-on-year ratio of – 42.25%. The growth rate narrowed by 3.88 PCT compared with the previous month. The sales market boom in January was still at the bottom.
Investment suggestion: this week, Kerui data showed that in January this year, the equity sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 42.92% year-on-year, the sales area decreased by 45.14% year-on-year, and the prosperity of the sales market is still at the bottom; It is rumored that the financial management department convened several AMCs to study the participation of asset management companies in asset disposal, Project M & A and related financial intermediary services of venture real estate enterprises, which is expected to accelerate the progress of asset disposal of venture real estate enterprises; Xiamen issued new regulations on the pre-sale management of commercial housing, and authorized the competent department to adjust the image and progress of the project, one of the pre-sale conditions, according to the market situation, so as to improve the flexibility of the pre-sale policy; Anhui issued a document to guide the reduction of the down payment proportion of real estate; Zigong relaxed provident fund loans and implemented the recognition standard of “only recognizing loans but not houses”; Nanning raised the maximum amount of provident fund loans for first and second homes to 700000 yuan and 600000 yuan, and the housing loan policy continued to be relaxed. We believe that under the main line of “stable growth”, the counter cyclical adjustment is expected to continue to increase. It is expected that more vigorous adjustment policies will be introduced at the debt repayment peak of real estate enterprises from January to March, the upward trend of the industry beta trend will remain unchanged, and the steady Green Housing enterprises will accelerate the concentration. We recommend the head Green Housing enterprises with advantages in investment and financing. A shares recommend China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) 、 Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ； H shares recommend Longhu group, China Resources Land, China Overseas Development and Xuhui holding group.
Risk tip: the industry’s capital has tightened more than expected; The market performance was lower than expected
