Yesterday, a so-called "rescue" news from foreign media was falsified by Chinese media. According to the financial Associated Press, people close to the regulatory authorities said the news was untrue.
DAGO looked at the name of the foreign media and remembered that the rumor of "Russia's invasion of Ukraine" was also exposed there a few days ago. He seemed to understand something.
During the long Spring Festival holiday, I read an international situation review article, which put forward a new term - "virtual international crisis". At present, the economies of some developed countries have been "de reality to emptiness". They use the media to easily manipulate the guidance of public opinion and create a tense crisis atmosphere, so as to achieve the purpose of operating the international financial market in a disguised form and plundering wealth through market fluctuations.
If you think about it, you can get huge excess returns by casually hyping a new concept in the capital market. Isn't it terrible if even the so-called international crisis can be reduced to the object of operation?
Therefore, when we look at foreign media news, we should think more and screen it.
Today, after the limit rise of China Mobile, there are many similar voices of "rescuing the market". In fact, such rumors have loopholes. The Shanghai Stock Exchange stipulates that new shares will be included in the index one year after listing; If the total market value can be ranked in the top 10 of the Shanghai stock market, it should be included after listing for 3 months. According to the regulations, China Mobile has been listed on the A-share market for only one month and has not been qualified to be included in the index. Therefore, the rumor of "pulling weight to save the market" is not tenable.
Of course, China Mobile has no explicit impact on the index, and there are still some positive implicit effects. China Mobile belongs to the category of new infrastructure. In addition, it is blue chips and secondary new shares. If it can go out of the trend, it can generate positive stimulation for the digital economy, large blue chips and secondary new shares, which is conducive to the recovery of market sentiment. Today, the driving effect of China Mobile can explain the problem.
The price limit of China Mobile blinded many investors. There are many reasons for the price limit in market analysis, such as the policy expectation of digital economy, the impact of Hong Kong stocks, the ticket blowing of securities companies, the stimulation of the Winter Olympic Games, etc. For DAGO, the policy expectation of affirming the digital economy is more reliable.
Of course, no matter what reason, the most important thing is that the main force has money and wants to pull. Can we control it? What if the organization doesn't think so much at all? Instead of speculating on the thoughts of institutions, it is easier to look at the flow of funds on the disk. The sectors with the highest increase are obviously the direction of capital attack.
The digital economy sector was restless as scheduled. Stimulated by the favorable conditions, the digital currency basically "got off work" within half an hour of opening. As soon as I saw the capital, it didn't work. Before I got on the bus, I found China Mobile. The communication sector rose, and the whole digital economy sector was ignited in an instant. Can the digital economy go out of the trend? China Mobile may be used as an indicator for observation temporarily.
It was mentioned yesterday that each of us is a "referee". Today, in addition to the digital economy, there are also big consumption and high boom tracks.
Baijiu is only a rebound in big consumption, and its valuation is not low. Agricultural stocks have a good sustainability in recent days. In addition to the breeding sector, the game is policy expectation; Aviation, airports, tourism and hotels belong to the post epidemic cycle sector, which has been shown before the festival, and now it is a continuation of the pre Festival. Among these defensive sectors, DAGO feels that the agricultural and post epidemic cycle sectors need to wait for a correction opportunity.
It's hard to say the bottom of the high boom track rebound one day. Due to the large decline in these sectors and the large amount of funds covered, it may be difficult to have a large sustainable performance in the short term. At present, it's more about shocks.
So far, the major forces of A-Shares have gradually become clear, including the first team of new and old infrastructure, the first team of big finance, the first team of consumption and the first team of high prosperity. Among the four forces, if they can be divided into at least two teams according to the criteria of undervaluation and growth.
DAGO is still that attitude. He underestimates value and growth. He should grasp it with both hands and be hard with both hands. Undervaluation belongs to defensive strategy, and growth belongs to offensive strategy. The allocation ratio of attack and defense can have personal preference, but the player who can win in the end should be the player with balanced attack and defense.
On the penultimate trading day before the festival, DAGO proposed to choose one of the two bottoming modes of the index. According to the performance of A-Shares today, it's good. The balance is leaning towards the bottoming mode of V-reversal, but there must be a bottom line, that is, the Shanghai stock index should hold above 3430 points in the short term, otherwise it is likely to evolve into a mode of seeing the bottom again after shock.
On the whole, be cautious and optimistic. Wait for the opportunity of correction. You can't be fat at one bite. Take your time.
