On February 9, the A-share communication sector index rose sharply for the first time after the festival, closing up 3.5%. Plate leader China Mobile ushered in the first trading board, with its share price reaching a new high since its listing and a market value of more than trillion yuan. Under the leadership of China Mobile, relevant stocks in the communication sector have performed well.
According to the data, as of February 9, a total of 71 companies in the communication industry issued annual performance forecasts, of which 36 companies' net profits increased year-on-year, accounting for more than half; The performance of the remaining 8 companies is expected to be reduced, and 27 companies have performance losses.
\u3000\u3000 "Most enterprises in the communication industry are in the middle reaches of the industrial chain. In 2021, affected by the shortage of chips, the rise of raw materials, the rise of freight and other adverse factors, it is difficult for enterprises with weak bargaining power to transfer the cost pressure to the downstream in the short term, which leads to their poor performance. With the solution of the problem of chip supply and the stability of the price of raw materials in the upstream, some enterprises with poor early performance Enterprises are expected to recover. " Xia Qingying, chief analyst of TMT of Wanlian securities, told the reporter of Securities Daily.
In terms of data, Zte Corporation(000063) is expected to have a net profit of 6.5 billion yuan to 7.2 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 52% - 69%; Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies Co.Ltd(600498) it is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 219-329 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 115% - 222%; China Bester Group Telecom Co.Ltd(603220) it is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 182-218 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 219% - 282%; Queclink Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(300590) it is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 155-183 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 72% - 102%. Some companies have turned losses into profits.
"The weak overall performance of the communication industry is in line with expectations. The reason for this is that the customers of the communication industry are mainly the three major operators and Internet giants outside China. In essence, these types of customers have passed the stage of rapid development and investment, which is somewhat similar to the development state of public utilities." Wang Sheng, research director of Shanghai jingling Investment Management Co., Ltd., told reporters.
The Ministry of industry and information technology said that it is expected that China will build more than 2 million 5g base stations by the end of 2022. It is reported that by the end of 2021, China has built and opened more than 1.39 million 5g base stations. This means that there will be about 600000 5g base station construction tasks of the three major operators in 2022, which is basically the same as the actual construction number of 650000 in 2021.
"When the number of 5g base station construction in 2022 is basically the same as that in 2021, the total 5g related investment will not increase significantly in 2022, which makes the growth rate of capital expenditure of operators limited. From the perspective of the overall trend development of the industry, it has passed the period of blooming flowers, and the development of sub industries will face differentiation." A researcher in the communication industry of a private equity fund in Guangzhou believes that.
According to the above researchers, according to the plans of the three operators, the total capital expenditure in 2021 is about 340.6 billion yuan, and the 5g related investment is about 184.7 billion yuan; It is predicted that the capital expenditure of the three major operators in 2022 will be about 350 billion yuan, and the 5g related investment will be about 19.4 billion yuan.
Xia Qingying believes that, "From the performance of the performance forecast, the performance of enterprises in high boom tracks such as Internet of things and optical devices is still stable, and these tracks are expected to remain the key areas of investment in 2022. In addition, it is also recommended to pay attention to the operator sector. 5g drives the marginal improvement of operator performance significantly; and with the promotion of 5g, the b-end business will also open new growth space for operators. From the perspective of valuation, The valuations of the three operators are at historically low levels, with high dividend yield and relatively high investment value. "
