The year of the tiger A-Shares continued the fluctuation trend before the festival. After a sharp rebound on February 7, the market fluctuated violently on February 8, and the gem fell into a technical bear market. The Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) limit once triggered all kinds of “Mao” diving in turns, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell nearly 10% at the deepest.
Since 2022, the momentum of northbound funds has been strong. Since this year, the net inflow has exceeded 20 billion yuan, with a significant inflow of 8.741 billion yuan on Monday and a net outflow of 817 million yuan on Tuesday. International institutions are generally more optimistic about A-Shares than local institutions, which is more due to the comparison of stock market valuations between China and the United States and the degree of monetary policy easing. According to choice data, in the past 20 days, the sectors with the largest market value of northward capital holdings were: banks, non bank finance, power supply equipment, financial / non-metallic new materials, etc; According to datayes, the companies that northbound capital has increased the most since the beginning of the year are: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) . A number of institutional sources told reporters that foreign investment is obviously in the new energy sector with high prosperity but deep withdrawal since the fourth quarter of last year, in addition to the traditional financial stocks with high safety margin.
Shanghai Investment Morgan told the first financial reporter that although the trading volume increased slightly on the 8th, it still did not exceed 900 billion yuan, indicating that the market funds have not been fully returned and the market confidence has yet to be established. The distressed and undervalued performance of the target stock in the early stage is expected to be favored by the market.
overweight large financial and bottom reading high boom stocks
As of the closing on the 8th, the main board was stable, but the gem finally fell 2.5%. Compared with the stage high in November last year, the index adjusted by more than 20%, entering the technical bear market area.
In terms of industry, coal rose 5.56% in shenwanyi industry index, followed by comprehensive (+ 3.22%) and social services (+ 2.94%). On the other hand, power equipment (- 3.45%) led the decline, followed by electronics (- 1.82%) and food and beverage (- 1.47%).
Specifically, the 8 day leading pharmaceutical industry, Baijiu, new energy and semiconductor sectors are different from each other. In medicine, it is said that the industry was hit by the “unverified list” released by the Bureau of industry and security of the US Department of Commerce yesterday, including Yaoming biology. Affected by this, YaoMing’s share price plummeted in the morning, and the Hong Kong stock Yaoming biology once fell by more than 30%, while Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) A shares firmly sealed the limit; In terms of new energy and semiconductors, the postponement of carbon peak in the steel industry has a negative impact on the new energy sector, driving the collective weakness of science and technology stocks; In addition, Baijiu, affected by “on the spot”, Baijiu consumption during the Spring Festival is less than expected, causing the stock price to fall.
The reporter sorted out that since the beginning of the year, among the top 20 companies with the largest net purchase of funds from north, four are bank shares, namely: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) ; The non bank financial sector includes: Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) ; Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) are new energy vehicles and photovoltaic concept stocks.
So far this year, bank stocks have been in the limelight. The investment manager of an international asset management institution told reporters a few days ago that he has indeed increased his holdings of high-quality A-shares. Due to the low valuation, loose policy expectations and the logic of large asset management, he currently has a high margin of safety.
All walks of life have also bet that the credit data in January is better. China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) Liao Zhiming, chief banking analyst, told reporters that according to previous laws, new loans are expected to increase year-on-year in January, and the credit supply is expected to increase by 3.95 trillion yuan in January (3.58 trillion yuan in January and 1.13 trillion yuan in December 2021). At the same time, he expects m2 to reach 241.1 trillion yuan at the end of January, with a year-on-year increase of 9% and a social finance growth rate of 10.2%. On January 18, the central bank clearly proposed to “guide financial institutions to effectively expand credit supply” and “move forward”. It can be seen that the current policy clearly guides banks to increase credit supply. Therefore, it is expected that the pace of credit supply throughout the year will be close to “4321”.
In addition, foreign capital is obviously overweight the new energy related sectors with deep correction since the fourth quarter. According to the reporter, under the global trend of “carbon neutrality”, the new energy sector remains unchanged, and this sector is a rare Chinese theme with high consensus among foreign investors. Therefore, after continuous valuation, many foreign investors will choose to buy on bargain hunting.
Meng Ning, director of China equity investment of lubemaker, said in an interview with China business on the eve of the Spring Festival, “From the perspective of new energy track stocks, for companies with 30% compound annual growth rate (CAGR): it may be reasonable to give a valuation of 40 times, but before it was given 50 ~ 60 times, or even hundreds of times, there must be irrational elements, and the possibility of subsequent killing valuation will be increased. As for the current value, it is not Beijing Zhidemai Technology Co.Ltd(300785) , it’s not difficult to judge – the current boom has not changed. If the valuation falls to 30 times, you can get 30% of the possible profit-making space. If it just returns to 40 times, the profit-making space is still limited. “
The sales data of new energy vehicles are also relatively bright. The relevant sectors rebounded sharply on Monday, and the relevant Hong Kong stocks reflected the good news on February 4. For example, in January, 93168 new energy vehicles were sold, compared with 20178 in the same period last year, a sharp increase of 361% year-on-year. The new forces of car making also released the delivery data for the first month of 2022. Xiaopeng had the highest delivery volume, 12922 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 115%, and delivered more than 10000 vehicles for five consecutive months. At the same time, the delivery volume of ideal vehicles in January was 12268, with a year-on-year increase of 128.1%, and the delivery of 10000 vehicles has been achieved for three consecutive months.
Downstream new energy operators are also promising sectors for foreign investment. Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) believes that with a series of policies to eliminate market concerns, the year of green power tiger is expected to continue its high boom. On January 28, the national development and Reform Commission issued the guiding opinions on accelerating the construction of a national unified power market system, which clearly proposed to build a “market transaction and price mechanism conducive to the development of new energy and energy storage” in 2025. In addition, with the huge losses and bad profits of transformation thermal power companies, it is expected that the follow-up will continue to be realized with the implementation of long-term coal price Association and the rise of electricity prices in local market-oriented transactions. Compared with pure new energy operators, traditional energy transformation green power companies have more strategic allocation value.
Key targets of electric energy include thermal power transformation ( Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) , Inner Mongolia Mengdian Huaneng Thermal Power Corporation Limited(600863) ), new energy ( China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Longyuan Power, Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) ), power grid and comprehensive energy ( State Grid Information&Communication Co.Ltd(600131) , Chongqing Fuling Electric Power Industrial Co.Ltd(600452) ).
Coincidentally, Liu Hong, director of stock investment in China of Fullerton investment management, previously told the first financial reporter that he is more optimistic about the new green power station, and the green card transaction will open up profit space in the future, but the “old players” have the problem of giving up subsidies. Since non water renewable energy projects that have been connected to the grid from 2017 to 2020 can usually get national renewable energy subsidies ranging from 0.1 to 0.7 yuan per kilowatt hour, trading green certificates means giving up the corresponding subsidies. From the green card trading platform, the current willing to sell price is basically in the range of 0.12 to 0.7 yuan per kilowatt hour.
the market is gradually approaching the “emotional bottom”
Pessimism is one of the reasons for the continuous correction of the market. Institutions generally expect that the market is expected to stabilize gradually with the introduction of follow-up supporting policies.
Wu Zhaoyin, chief strategic director of AVIC trust, told reporters that the economy is expected to stabilize in the second quarter. The PMI of Zhongcai in January was 50.1, lower than 50.3 in December, and the PMI of Caixin in January was only 49.1, which was not only significantly lower than 50.9 in December, but also a new low since the epidemic in February 2020, reflecting the weakness of the manufacturing industry. At present, the funds are hoarded in the bank, and the bank has no good projects and cannot extend credit. Macro monetary easing, but no funds flow into the stock market. This problem is expected to be gradually resolved in the second quarter. After the two sessions, the financial policy will be strengthened again and the approval of large-scale projects by the national development and Reform Commission, the situation is expected to improve.
On February 8, the people’s Bank of China and the Bank Of China Limited(601988) Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on excluding the loans related to indemnificatory rental housing from the concentration management of real estate loans, which made it clear that the loans related to indemnificatory rental housing projects were not included in the concentration management of real estate loans, and encouraged banking financial institutions to follow the principles of legal compliance, controllable risk and commercial sustainability, Increase support for the development of affordable rental housing. Coincidentally, Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund told reporters: “we believe that the current market is close to the ’emotional bottom’, the main stock indexes and industries have been fully adjusted, and there is a basis for rebound in the future.”
The agency said that in terms of medicine, the United States included only an unverified list, which belongs to the slightest category. Yao Mingsheng also issued a statement this morning saying that the “unverified list” is not the well-known “entity list” or “blacklist” of the United States. The statement said that Yaoming bio has been importing some hardware controllers and some hollow fiber filters of bioreactors. These controllers are subject to U.S. export control, but this has no impact on the company’s business or the continuous service of global partners. Since such equipment is not required after the construction of facilities in Shanghai and Wuxi, the impact on their import is very small. The statement also said that the company is taking temporary measures to remove these subsidiaries from the list before inspection, so there is no need to worry too much. In terms of science and technology, the new energy and semiconductor sectors are still the focus of the market. Driven by the dual carbon goal, the long-term development logic brought by industrial transformation and upgrading remains unchanged; Baijiu, a typical “tower” feature, still takes the structure upgrading as the main line.
JPMorgan said that it is currently in the “bottom seeking” stage. In the environment of continued loose funds, still room for overweight policies, and a high proportion of performance expectations, the future market can still be expected. If there is a major adjustment in the market, it can be regarded as a process of accelerating bottom seeking.
