On Monday, the year of the tiger of A-Shares ushered in a “good start”, but investors were poured with “cold water” on Tuesday, and the trend of the three major A-share indexes was divided. From the disk view, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and other high priced hot stocks staged “mass extinction”. When the market was in the doldrums, the Shanghai Stock Index staged a deep V reversal! For the golden needle bottom, what will be the interpretation of the future market? Let’s see what the top 10 billion private placement leaders say.
the stock index staged a deep V reversal
On Tuesday, the three major A-share indexes opened low and the trend was divided. From the disk view, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and other high priced hot stocks suffered “mass extinction”.
Heavyweights led by banks, securities companies and insurance bucked the trend, and the Shanghai index staged a deep V reversal, while the decline of the Shenzhen Component Index and the gem index further narrowed. As of the close, the gem index fell 2.45%, out of the trend of the golden needle bottoming out.
In this regard, Wu Weizhi, a 10 billion private equity tycoon, told the daily economic news, “The market is falling because of the market’s own laws and the relationship between supply and demand. The recent continuous decline of popular tracks such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic, which have strengthened in the early stage, has greatly damaged the market sentiment. Due to the lack of continuous profit-making effect, the pace of capital entering the market has slowed down, and it can not even be ruled out that many institutional investors have the pressure to reduce their positions due to redemption, risk control and risk avoidance. In the past few years The stock supply accumulated by a large number of IPOs in will be gradually released over time, increasing the pressure on the market. “
For investors to deal with the current market, Wu Weizhi said, “in the policy continues to relax expectations, do not have to be too pessimistic and panic. For reasonable valuation of good companies, short-term emotional impact, there are still strong opportunities. For serious valuation of the bubble of the company, we should pay attention to avoid risks.”
Beijing Xingshi investment told reporters, “At this time, we believe that the market is in a relatively calm and disordered market due to the accumulation of structural sentiment in August. At this time, we believe that the market is in a relatively stable and backward valuation range. Although there are a lot of factors that drive the market to fall, we believe that the market is in a more stable and stable valuation range.”
Hao Xinming, manager of Fangxin wealth investment fund, told reporters, “The recent large decline of the gem is a correction to the huge increase in the previous three years. The main board is relatively resistant to the decline because it has begun to adjust earlier. Compared with financial stocks with reasonable valuation, the cost performance of technology stocks in high boom industries is poor. The market has a rebound opportunity after large short-term adjustment. Don’t be overly optimistic about the rebound expectation. There is a high probability that the middle line will weaken, Appropriately control positions. “
He Jinlong, general manager of Meili investment, said, “a major factor affecting the global market this year is the interest rate hike in the peripheral market, which is unfavorable to overvalued enterprises. However, China is still in a relatively loose environment, and the differentiation market in the future will be highlighted. Industries with high overvalued value and prosperity need performance to digest the valuation.”
Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong times, told reporters, “growth stocks represented by TMT performed poorly. The decline of gem index and gem 50 was significantly greater than that of gem composite, which proved that heavyweights such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) had a great impact on the index. Looking forward to the next half year, the downward nominal interest rate is still favorable for growth, but we need to wait until growth data and fiscal stimulus return to normal.”
probability of independent repair
For the current market, private placement fund manager Xia Fengguang told reporters, “Recently, the gem index is weaker than the CSI 300 and other indexes. I think there are both valuation reasons and changes in the macro environment. From the perspective of valuation, the gem index has the highest valuation among the main broad-based indexes, its price to book ratio has reached a historical high of 7.2, and the average PE is more than 55 times. If the valuation level is too high, it will be more sensitive to changes in market sentiment. From the perspective of changes in monetary policy, the current expectation of interest rate hike in major economies in the United States and Europe is strong, and the interest rate hike has a greater impact on growth stocks. Today, the core heavyweight Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) on the gem fell sharply, which was a significant drag on the index. Since the beginning of this year, although the trend of the main indexes is weak, the big finance is relatively strong, which is also an embodiment of the continued structural differentiation of the market. The future market is still full of opportunities. “
Beijing qinghequan capital told reporters that the main reason for the poor market performance in the beginning of the year was that under the policy pattern of external tightening and internal loosening, the upward yield of US bonds triggered the adjustment of growth stocks of US stocks, which was mapped to the A-share market, while China was still waiting for the transmission from broad currency to broad credit. Therefore, it was generally reflected in the decline of A-share risk appetite and the compression of valuation.
It believes that there is no need to be pessimistic after the market falls in 2022, and the subsequent probability of A-Shares ushers in an independent repair market: first, the periodic adjustment of US stocks has been in place, and the market pessimism has weakened.
Secondly, the expectation of interest rate increase included in the price of overseas assets has been relatively sufficient. During the Spring Festival, the interest rates of European and US Treasury bonds rose, but the stock assets showed a trend of stabilization and rebound. This means that after the correction of asset prices, the current expectation of monetary tightening has been relatively fully included. It is estimated that at present, the prices of US stocks and US bonds imply that the Fed will raise interest rates 4.5 times and 4 times in the next year, respectively.
Third, China has ushered in an important window period. Steady growth is expected to deepen and credit expectations are expected to be repaired. First, historically, A-Shares have a high probability of rising in February, mainly due to policy catalysis and loose liquidity. Second, the inducement of the market decline in the beginning of the year is the sharp decline of US stocks, but the core is the lack of confidence in steady growth. With the implementation and increasing weight of the policy, credit and economic expectations are also expected to be repaired.
The reason for the sharp decline of GEM has been found! The latest interpretation of more than a dozen fund companies
Rare! “Ning nationality” and “Mao nationality” collectively killed 500 billion value leaders, but they reached a new high. What’s the signal?
