Looking back on Tuesday’s A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a differentiation pattern of “strong Shanghai and weak Shenzhen”. The three major stock indexes opened low in the morning, and the Shanghai index maintained a weak consolidation, while the gem index and Shenzhen Composite Index fluctuated and fell all the way, both breaking the recent lows, thus dragging down the Shanghai index; In the afternoon, the large financial support prompted the Shanghai index to get out of the V-shaped reversal trend, and finally the red market closed, while the gem index and Shenzhen composite index also bottomed out and rebounded, and the decline further converged, but the weak pattern throughout the day was obvious.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , affected by overseas uncertainties, the gem refers to the reproduction of irrational killing. The direction of killing is mainly concentrated in new energy, CXO and other tracks with global leading advantages. On the one hand, the early increase is large and the valuation is at a high level. On the other hand, the over allocation of Chinese institutions leads to the overcrowding of some tracks. in the short term, the stability of the gem index mainly depends on the relevant weight, but there is no systemic risk in the market. Under the loose and friendly liquidity environment in China, the valuation of some industries is at a historical low, so we are patient to wait for the stability of the market .
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities believes that the trend of the index was significantly differentiated on Tuesday. The stabilization of blue chips led to the V-shaped reversal of the Shanghai index, while the weak performance of new energy and other sectors dragged down the shock callback of the gem index. However, more than 3600 stocks in the two cities are popular, highlighting the resilience of the market. considering that the current overall A-share valuation is reasonable and the steady growth policy has gradually formed a joint force, the market is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound. Pay attention to the gains and losses of the annual line and the rotation of the sector . In terms of operation, it is suggested to pay attention to finance, steel, coal, household appliances, building materials, building decoration and other industries.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) also said that the current market differentiation characteristics are more serious, and the growth stocks and track stocks with large cumulative gains in the early stage have fallen one after another. Many undervalued heavyweights in the main board market have begun to emerge, and the mentality of investors to abandon the high to the low is more obvious . The trading volume of the two cities is 8.7 billion yuan, and the characteristics of the stock game remain the same. Whether 3350 points can become a recent phased low still needs to be verified.
The agency further analyzed that it is expected that the short-term shock consolidation of the Shanghai index around 3450 points is more likely, and the short-term slight consolidation of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to pay careful attention to the investment opportunities in the financial industry, engineering construction, power and some cycle industries in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
As far as the overnight rally is concerned, 0001 {66} stocks have a strong positive impact. China concept stocks have strengthened in a large area, and e-commerce themes are sought after. China news has formed positive stimulus in the face of cross-border e-commerce, financial technology, infrastructure and other sectors. it is expected that the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets will fluctuate upward on Wednesday, and all indexes will rebound simultaneously; The Shanghai composite index is expected to continue to hit the 10 day moving average and continue to do more kinetic energy to reverse the weak accumulation in the medium term; The gem index is expected to stop falling and rebound and enter the oversold rebound cycle .
In addition, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) mentioned that the deep V of the index bottomed out on Tuesday, indicating that after a wave of sufficient benign differences, a consistent upward trend has been formed. Despite the lack of large ticket performance, the market still has the power to rebound in the near future. There is no need to remain pessimistic and continue to focus on individual stocks rather than the index. In terms of strategy, digital currency is expected to continue to strengthen, which can be paid appropriate attention. At the same time, infrastructure is still a hot spot in the short-term direction . In the medium and long term, China is expected to get out of the independent market and actively pay attention to sectors such as medicine, military industry, new energy and mandatory consumption.
Guosheng Securities believes that the indexes of the two cities have continued to fluctuate and fall recently, falling below all long-term averages, and have formed a short structure. However, after the sharp fall is completed and the risk is fully released, the market is expected to usher in a breathing opportunity and a good opportunity to rebound and do more . In terms of operation, the main decline of small and medium-sized stocks before the festival and the supplementary decline of large cap stocks after the festival have been completed, and the risk has been fully released. After the deep “V” reversal on Tuesday, the market sentiment has obviously warmed up, the superimposed market volume can be enlarged, and the market main line focusing on infrastructure appears. Therefore, the short-term market may welcome the good opportunity of rebound and long, can light the index and heavy individual stocks, Focus on opportunities for small and medium-sized stocks such as infrastructure, power and coal, which are mainly low-priced and undervalued .
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that under the support of fundamentals and the boost of liquidity, the logic of the overall improvement of the market has not changed, while with the recovery of overseas sentiment and the bottom recovery of a shares, the restorative market is worth looking forward to . The financial reporting season began gradually, and some stocks fell sharply because their performance was lower than expected. It is suggested to continue to control their positions, avoid underperforming stocks, appropriately allocate undervalued varieties such as banks and infrastructure, and track individual stocks whose performance exceeded expectations in the new energy industry.
Macroscopically, Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) pointed out that the market fell sharply in January due to concerns about the tightening of liquidity caused by the Fed’s interest rate hike. However, we believe that the adjustment of the current A-share market is nearing the end, and the market situation in February is worth looking forward to . On the one hand, the current market adjustment range has been relatively sufficient; On the other hand, the Fed’s interest rate hike will not necessarily lead to the rise of China’s interest rate. The current market liquidity and policy environment are very friendly to the market. We are optimistic about the market performance of technology growth companies represented by new energy and TMT under the background that the liquidity environment is relatively abundant and friendly, the overall market valuation is not high, and the industrial logic of the zugra cycle of emerging industries is worth looking forward to.
In terms of operational strategy, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that the market has continued to decline since the beginning of the year, but the real estate, banking, securities companies and other sectors are relatively resistant to decline, or even rise against the trend, showing significant relative returns. Since November 2021, we have repeatedly stressed that we should not underestimate or ignore the investment value of the “stable growth” sector. There may be a wave of undervalued structural market similar to “mini version 2014” in the market. the undervalued structural market similar to “mini version 2014” is unfolding. At present, it is still the layout window : 1) the signal of policy relaxation has been clear. 2) At present, financial, real estate and other undervalued sectors are also places with few people. Both valuation and institutional positions are at the bottom of history, and positions have been increased since the fourth quarter. It should be emphasized that similarity is more about structure, and the high probability of index is only the “mini version” of 2014.
In addition, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that the configuration of can be carried out around four main lines: first, the growth style . As the adjustment comes to an end, we will actively layout the upstream energy metal of lithium battery cathode materials and optical and wind storage and other industrial opportunities in the dual carbon chain; Semiconductor direction, focusing on mature process semiconductor equipment manufacturers under domestic alternative logic; In the direction of growth and diffusion, pay attention to the localization 3.0 concept of communication 5g base station and computer basic industrial chain.
main line 2: steady growth chain , focusing on building materials, steel, urban gas / drainage pipeline transformation, new power grid construction and other directions; And the real estate sector with further deregulation and reversal of the boom.
main line 3: financial style , focusing on the securities companies in the market sentiment sector and the banking sector that benefited from the bottom of the economy and the expected blowout of credit scale in the first quarter.
Main line 4 consumption style is still dominated by follow-up. It is suggested to focus on the mandatory consumer goods such as dairy products and condiments whose cost side has fallen in the near future but the price is still rising. Theme opportunities: investment opportunities related to digital economy and state-owned enterprise reform.
