Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : 2022 is the best stage to lay out the pig sector in advance
1) live pigs: 2022 is the best stage to arrange the live pig sector in advance, and the probability of pig cycle in 2023 is reversed. At the same time, meat products benefit from the decline in pig prices, and the profit is expected to be further improved in 2022. Recommendations: Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) , COFCO jiajiakang, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) etc; Attention: Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , Longda food, etc. 2) Yellow feather chicken: the stock of parents in production is at the lowest level in three years, and the trend of elimination is still continuing. It is expected that the profit of yellow chicken breeding will improve in 2022. It is recommended that high-quality breeding targets: Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) . 3) White feather chicken: the whole industrial chain is sinking towards food deep processing. It is suggested to pay attention to the bottom: Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) , Shandong Xiantan Co.Ltd(002746) . []
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) : at present, the pig sector is in a very good configuration window period. The first half of the year is the key period to win excess returns
For the live pig sector, it is still in a very good configuration window period. The first half of the year is the key period to win excess returns. The fertile sows have been falling continuously since July 2021, among which they have fallen more than expected from October to November 2021. The downward trend of fertile sows is very clear. From historical experience, fertile sows have been in a downward relay, In the follow-up, with the intensification of breeding losses and the continuous downturn of column supplement, the de urbanization will be intensified. The decline of fertile sows every month will be catalyzed by the pig sector. The pig price is in the process of the second bottom of the w bottom. At present, the downward space of the pig price is very limited. Factors such as the change of the marketing rhythm of short-term farmers will affect the fluctuation of the pig price. Even if there is a periodic rebound, as long as the loss inventory is cleared, it will continue. In the second half of the year, it is necessary to verify the pig price, but it is a safe period for the first half of the year. Despite the recent rebound in the pig sector, the current valuation of the sector, especially the leader, is still at the bottom, with sufficient margin of safety. Therefore, at present, the pig sector continues to be recommended, focusing on the leading Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , followed by the second tier pig enterprises New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) . []
The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities: after the Spring Festival, the industry may accelerate the reduction of production capacity and continue to be optimistic about the pig breeding sector
1) pig breeding: after the festival, the industry may accelerate the reduction of production capacity, continue to be optimistic about the pig breeding sector, and pay attention to the cost leading enterprises with safe operation and reasonable valuation. During the Spring Festival, pig prices were adjusted at a low level. It is expected that after the festival, as consumer demand weakens, pig prices may fall. According to official data, the speed of capacity removal in the industry has slowed down. It is expected that after the festival, with the decline of pig prices, the speed of capacity elimination will accelerate. We firmly believe that the production capacity of the industry will reach the bottom in the third quarter, and the pig price will enter the channel of cyclical rise at that time. The market value of most enterprises is lower than the historical average, and most of them are optimistic about the safety of the market value. In terms of individual stocks, focus on Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) with leading cost and Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) with obvious improvement in production indicators. 2) Dynamic insurance: on the eve of the new cycle, the prosperity of pig vaccine was under pressure in the short term, but the static PE was at the bottom of history, the safety margin of valuation was high, and the optimistic rating was maintained. The key recommendation of individual stocks is Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) with reasonable valuation and significant growth. []
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: the cycle will not be absent! Pig breeding sector configuration at the right time
Pig breeding sector configuration is the moment, and the cycle will not be absent. The market value of listed breeding enterprises is at a historical low, and the potential space is huge. The investment safety margin of pig breeding industry is high and the downside risk is controllable. We set the starting point of a new round of pig cycle at the time of bottom exploration, that is, October 2021 (the lowest weekly price at that time was 10.78 yuan / kg). The price is basically close to the bottom price in 14 and 18 years, which are 10.45 yuan / kg and 10.01 yuan / kg respectively. However, it should be noted that the breeding costs faced by breeding enterprises in this round of pig cycle have increased significantly, which means that such a bottom price brings an absolute deep loss (greater than the previous two losses) and a great consumption of cash flow. From another perspective, the deep loss mode of pig breeding also means that the upward trend of the pig cycle in the future is more certain. The cycle goes back and forth. We believe that the loss period of the pig cycle is a risk release period, which brings a higher safety margin to the investment.
The perspective of data backtracking points to the allocation of breeding sector again. When it is right to look at the allocation time point from the perspective of data backtracking, we have highlighted it in the in-depth report in November 21. Based on the stock price and quarterly net profit of Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) since 14 years ago, muyuan has made seven quarterly losses during this period. Intervening in individual stocks in the loss quarter of Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) is the best buying point in each cycle, which can maximize the return on investment. We calculate and assume that the positions will be built successively in the first quarter of 2014 and held to the high point in the cycle, with an increase of 207%; Assuming that positions are built successively in the second quarter of 18 years, the increase during this period can reach 446%. Generally speaking, it is the best layout point for long-term funds to intervene in breeding stocks in the loss season. Of course, there must be fluctuations during the period. The suboptimal time point is that before the second bottom of the pig price, it will be a better time point for configuration, that is, what we call the present. Both the logical level and the data backtracking level point to grasp the current configuration opportunity of the pig cycle. []
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : it is expected that the process of capacity removal in China's pig market will accelerate in the first half of 2022
It is expected that in the first half of 2022, the process of capacity removal in China's pig market will accelerate, optimize the sow population structure and eliminate backward production capacity. In the second half of the year, the major traditional festivals will support consumption, which is also better than the slaughter of pigs, and the price of pigs will be significantly improved. According to the prediction of zhuyitong, the number of pigs sold in 2022 may continue to increase year-on-year, with an increase of about 4-5% over 2021. From the current market pattern, the demand for goods preparation during the Spring Festival is less than expected, and it is expected that China's demand may fall significantly after the Spring Festival, while the slaughter volume of farms does not decrease, and the supply and demand pattern may still show a trend of strong supply and weak demand. At the same time, the market is generally pessimistic about the pig price after the year, and the phenomenon of trampling on the pig price cannot be ruled out. For the selection of specific targets, it is recommended in turn: Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.Ltd(000048) . In addition, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) are expected to benefit fully. []
open source Securities: the reversal of the pig cycle in 2022 is imminent, and the price rise is conducted and superimposed with weather disturbance! Planting chain landscape continues
In 2022, the pig cycle is about to reverse, and the layout of production capacity is in the period of de industrialization.
Focus on Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) with leading breeding cost; The recovery of production indicators is accelerated, and the cost is reduced by Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) ; Cycle reversal drives Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) with excellent performance elasticity; Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) with both breeding cost and capital advantages; Relevant beneficiary object Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) .
The safety margin of the dynamic insurance sector appears, and the industry space may usher in accelerated capacity expansion. It is recommended to focus on China's leading animal subunit vaccine enterprise Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) .
Feed sales benefit from the high scale of pig stock, and the increase of column pressure in winter remains unabated. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading feed enterprise Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) with outstanding advantages in product power and service power.
The price rise conduction superimposed weather disturbance, and the planting chain landscape continued. It is suggested to pay attention to the Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) target of grain price increase. Highlight the recommendation of transgenic technology with outstanding advantages Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; And Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) where the fundamentals will improve; Related beneficiary objects Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Syngenta (to be listed). []
AVIC Securities: the game of pig sector has entered the stage of 3.0, and the supply and demand fundamentals of yellow feather chicken will promote the market cycle upward
The game of pig sector has entered the stage of 3.0. The classic cobweb model reflects the market logic of price reduction - > production reduction - > short supply - > price increase - > production increase - > price reduction. From the historical and recent performance of the capital market, the game of the capital market against the pig sector has gradually evolved from the initial "price increase" (stage 1.0) to "production reduction" (stage 2.0) to "price reduction" (stage 3.0). From January 1 to 15, although the price of pigs decreased by 12.95%, the Shenwan breeding sector increased by 3.26%, and the specific pig listed companies increased significantly. Obviously, the capital market has digested the expectation of price reduction at the beginning of the year and formed a certain expectation of production reduction and upward expectation in the future cycle in advance. "The lower the price, the lower the production, and the higher the share price". The game model of "capital chain" moving forward continuously.
In terms of broilers, we believe that the supply and demand fundamentals of yellow feather chicken will promote the market cycle upward. 1) On the supply side, the long-term breeding loss in the early stage makes the industry's production capacity obvious. According to the China Animal Husbandry Association, the stock of parents' generation of yellow feather broilers was 13.4356 million in November, which has been at the low point of nearly four years. We believe that the overall production of yellow feather broilers in 22 years will be at a low level in recent years. 2) On the demand side, as the market of live pigs and other animal proteins bottoms out, the substitution squeeze of yellow feather broiler demand will gradually ease and the margin will be better. In addition, the consumption of live poultry suppressed by the epidemic has been fully digested in the past two years, with marginal improvement; In the short term, it is supported by consumption at the end of the year, boosted by long-term economic recovery, and the yellow feather broiler sector is expected to usher in a business cycle. Pay attention to the relevant targets of Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and other sectors.
In terms of industrial chain integration, we believe that head breeding enterprises extend to downstream slaughtering and processing, food manufacturing and even terminal sales by virtue of their advantages of upstream integration and large-scale, with continuous enrichment of business and continuous improvement of value. Head breeding enterprises are expected to rely on their core advantages to continuously improve their competitiveness and open the performance growth curve. []
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : the commercialization of GM is gradually approaching. Continue to pay attention to the leader of seed industry
The commercialization of GM is gradually approaching, and we continue to pay attention to the leader of seed industry. The commercialization of genetically modified crops is gradually approaching. The Ministry of agriculture and rural areas has carried out industrialization pilot projects for herbicide resistant genetically modified soybeans and insect resistant and herbicide resistant genetically modified maize that have obtained production and application safety certificates. At present, good progress has been made: first, the pilot genetically modified varieties have excellent characteristics and obvious advantages of cost saving and efficiency increasing. The weeding effect of genetically modified soybeans is more than 95%, which can reduce the weeding cost by 50%, Increase production by 12%; The control effect of transgenic maize on Spodoptera meadowi can reach 95%, which greatly reduces the cost of pest control; At the same time, the content of mycotoxin in transgenic maize grain is low and the quality is good; Second, the pilot genetically modified soybeans and corn have no adverse impact on the production environment. Planting GM maize reduces pesticide use and promotes biodiversity. []
