After the Spring Festival when the peak season is not prosperous, the weakness of China's pig breeding market continues. Three weeks after entering the three-level warning range of excessive decline, the specific price of pig grain has further fallen into the two-level warning range.
Supported by the idea of bottom reading, pig breeding stocks with significant pre loss performance once again won the favor of the market. In the morning trading on February 9, the pig related sector rose generally, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) limit, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) and other stocks rose by more than 8% at one time.
However, some analysts believe that the elimination of pig production capacity has slowed down significantly recently, and the removal of production capacity may be shelved.
pig grain ratio fell into the secondary warning range
After a short rebound from mid October to late November 2021, China's pig market ushered in a downward trend in prices again, and the traditional peak demand season of the Spring Festival failed to successfully boost the market.
According to the information released by the National Bureau of statistics, the price of pigs (foreign ternary) fell 6.7% month on month in mid January and 6.3% month on month in early January.
According to the monitoring data of the business society, the price of live pigs in China fell sharply in January, down 13.46% during the month. The market of the breeding industry continued to decline, the whole pig breeding industry entered a loss situation again, and the enthusiasm of farmers to fill the column continued to decline.
After the Spring Festival, the sluggish trend of the pig market remains unchanged.
"After the year, the terminal demand is poor. This batch of inventory of pickles in the early stage of the South has not been digested, but the willingness of upstream marketing is still relatively strong, so the market is still in oversupply." Zhuo Chuang analyst Li Jing told the reporter of securities times · e company that at present, the self breeding cost of the market is mostly about 7 yuan / kg, and the low one is more than 6 yuan / kg. As of yesterday, Zhuo Chuang monitored that the average selling price of pigs across the country was 13.5 yuan / kg, and the average head loss was about 200 yuan.
According to the monitoring of sozhu.com, on February 8, the average selling price of lean pigs nationwide was 13.8 yuan / kg, down 0.01 yuan / kg from 13.81 yuan / kg the previous day and 0.07% in a single day; Compared with 29.62 yuan / kg in the same period last year, it decreased by 16.27 yuan / kg, a year-on-year decrease of 53.75%. The national pig market is still dominated by weak shocks. The average selling price of pigs continues to hover below 14 yuan / kg to about 13.8 yuan / kg. On the same day, only one province's pig price rose, 11 provinces were the same as yesterday, and 16 provinces' pig price fell. Although the decline area increased today, the overall decline range is small, and the decline range is basically 0.01-0.26 yuan / kg, The province with a large decline in a single day was Jiangsu Province, 14.89 yuan / kg, down 0.26 yuan / kg. The current price also reflects that the average head loss under the condition of self breeding and self support has reached more than 200 yuan / head.
On February 8, the national development and Reform Commission announced that according to the monitoring of the national development and Reform Commission, the national average pig grain price ratio was 5.57:1 in the week from January 24 to 28, which was between 5:1 and 6:1 for three consecutive weeks, entering the level II early warning range of excessive decline set in the plan for improving the regulation mechanism of government pork reserves and ensuring the supply and price stability of pork market.
Pig food ratio is the ratio of the price of pigs to the price of corn as the main feed for pigs. According to relevant regulations of China, the ratio of pig price to corn price is 6:1, and pig breeding is basically at the break even point. The higher the pig grain ratio, the better the breeding profit, otherwise the worse. When the pig grain price ratio is 5:1-6:1 for three consecutive weeks, or the number of fertile sows decreases by 5% year-on-year in a single month, or the number of fertile sows decreases by 5% - 10% in three consecutive months, a secondary early warning will be issued.
In this context, the national development and Reform Commission also said that it would start the collection and storage of pork reserves with relevant departments as appropriate, and guide local governments to carry out the collection and storage according to regulations.
pig stocks are on the rise in the period, and be alert to the shelving of production capacity
The sluggish pig market makes the performance of leading pig raising enterprises suffer a large area of deep losses in 2021.
On January 28, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) released the performance forecast for 2021, which shows that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 is expected to be a loss of 18.2-19.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 416.84% - 442.96% over the same period of the previous year. Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) it is estimated that the net profit loss in 2021 will be 13-13.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 275.06% to 285.84%. Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) it is also expected to lose 3.5 to 4 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of more than 200%.
The overall loss of pig breeding industry has boosted the stock market after the festival.
On February 8, 2205, the main contract of pig futures, once rose to the stage high of 14965 yuan / ton. Since the holiday, the main contract has also increased by more than 4%.
In the morning trading on February 9, the pig related sector also ushered in a general rise, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) limit, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) and other stocks once rose by more than 8%.
After the Spring Festival, the stock price of Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) rose by more than 14%, that of Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) by more than 12%, and that of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) by more than 6%.
Pig stocks are popular, or based on the market's recognition of the idea of bottom reading.
Founder medium term futures believes that the number of fertile sows will reach 45.64 million in June 2021, the highest level in the year, and will remain above 45 million from July to August. According to the growth and reproduction law of pigs, the number of fertile sows can significantly affect the supply of pigs after 10 months, that is, the potential supply of sows will reach the peak from March to may 2022. After May 2022, with the reduction of pig supply, pig prices are expected to stabilize gradually.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) also pointed out that the pig price is in the process of the second bottom of the w bottom. At present, the downward space of the pig price is very limited. Factors such as the change of the marketing rhythm of short-term farmers will affect the fluctuation of the pig price. Even if there is a periodic rebound, as long as it is a loss, the stock clearing will continue, and it is still in a very good configuration window period, The decline of fertile sows in the following months will be the catalyst of the pig sector.
However, many market analysts are cautious about the speed of pig production capacity.
GF futures believes that from the perspective of supply, the logic of high-level slaughter of pigs in the medium term remains unchanged. Previously, the elimination of sows was dominated by sows with backward production capacity, and the stock of fertile sows continued to decline. The market is optimistic about the pig market around May. However, the elimination has slowed down significantly in the near future, and the production capacity may be put on hold. We should pay attention to the supplement of piglets and sows after the year. In the long cycle, the cyclical inflection point of pig price may still need to wait.
Huarongda futures believes that from the perspective of the number of fertile sows in 2021, the number of fertile sows peaked in June 2021 and began to decline from July, but the overall production capacity has been reduced slowly. Corresponding to the high number of pigs in the first half of this year, the supply of pork is loose, and it is difficult for pig prices to improve greatly.
According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the number of fertile sows at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021 was 43.29 million, equivalent to 105.6% of the normal number, with a month on month decrease of 2.9% and a year-on-year increase of 4%.
Previously, the market judged that the 2021 pig cycle would reach the inflection point around April and may, but most people in the industry made this prediction based on the fact that the number of fertile sows announced by the state began to stop rising and stabilize in June last year. However, the overall decline of sows last year was not very large. At present, the stock base is still relatively large. There is still a long loss cycle this year to accelerate this elimination.
The rise in pig prices at the end of last year may have an impact on the elimination mentality of retail investors. Li Jing believes that the recent general loss situation in the pig market will exacerbate the clearing of production capacity. However, when the cycle can bottom out, we still need to observe the speed of capacity deconvolution. At present, the average price of pigs in China reached a low of 5.5 yuan / kg in early October 2021, and there is still room for further decline in pig prices. At present, the situation of oversupply in the market is still obvious. The number of sows on hand is still relatively high.
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The national development and Reform Commission said it would start pork purchasing and storage again. The industry said it might stimulate market sentiment, but it is expected to be difficult to change the decline
