Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered the MFL and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, and the monetary easing cycle gradually opened. Under the expectation of abundant liquidity, the market as a whole was still boosted. On the third trading day of the year of the tiger, heavyweights performed stably, theme stocks made intraday efforts, and market sentiment continued to rise. With the support of policy bottom and capital bottom, the market restorative market has been opened, and the spring market is also coming slowly.
On the third trading day of the year of the tiger, the market was relatively stable. After the opening of the two cities in the morning, it was once volatile, and then ushered in the upward trend. Since then, it has kept running above the red market. In the afternoon, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) rose, and the sectors and indexes performed one after another. The strong trading limit of China Mobile also led the market to rise again. As of the closing, all three major indexes rose and ushered in a rebound resonance. On the disk, communications, food and beverage, computers, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery led the increase, while banks fell slightly, and architectural decoration, coal and real estate performed slightly.
On the first three days of the year of the tiger, compared with the sharp fluctuations of heavyweights and indexes on the first day and the second day, today's market performance is relatively stable, heavyweights perform prominently, while theme stocks have also rebounded one after another, and the market ushered in the rise of the whole line. After three consecutive days of rebound, market sentiment basically returned, which also played an important role in boosting the rebound of the index.
Previously, we said that under the tone of economic recovery and steady growth, the "policy bottom" was temporarily issued. With the reduction of reserve requirement last year and the "interest rate cut" at the beginning of this year, the market monetary easing cycle started, and the "capital bottom" basically appeared. However, only the "emotional bottom" was still disturbing the market. Under the disturbance of internal and external emotions, the index ushered in a continuous decline. Now, the overseas market has rebounded continuously during the Spring Festival, and the Chinese market has rebounded continuously after the Spring Festival. The "emotional bottom" has basically appeared. Under the resonance of the "three bottoms", the foundation of market repair and the Spring Festival rally is still relatively solid.
From the perspective of opportunity, since December last year, with the opening of the easing cycle and the of defense attributes, undervalued varieties such as banks have performed well. Under the tone of steady growth, the infrastructure sector also rose periodically, which is basically in line with market expectations. However, with the current rebound in market sentiment, we should also pay attention to the oversold rebound opportunities of growth stocks after continuous adjustment. After all, for many high boom growth stocks, the performance is not poor, and the cost performance is gradually improving after the recent return of valuation.
On the whole, after continuous adjustment, we are not pessimistic about the market. On the contrary, when the emotional bottom is approaching, the periodic multiple "bottoms" of the market usher in resonance, and the restorative market and spring market are expected to kick off. At present, we can consider gradually lurking and configuring the market in the first quarter. In terms of specific opportunities and allocation, it is suggested to explore from three angles: first, the "steady growth" or phased main line from the perspective of policy, and the sectors involved can track building materials, construction machinery, food and beverage and household appliances; Secondly, it can also be superimposed with varieties with high attention to funds in the north, such as financial and other value blue chips, in which the securities sector with undervalued value and good performance can be tracked; Third, technology and new energy are mainly varieties with relatively uncertain growth under the downward pressure of the economy.
