Following yesterday’s sharp rise of 5.27%, the main contract of thermal coal closed at the daily limit of 876.8 yuan / ton, up 10.01%.
Faced with the soaring prices in the futures market, Zheng Shangsuo made a move.
On the evening of February 8, the Zhengshang Exchange issued a notice that according to Article 10 of the measures for the management of futures trading risk control of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, it was decided after research that the trading margin standard of 2205 contract of thermal coal futures would be adjusted to 50% from the settlement on February 11, 2022. If the trading margin standard implemented in accordance with the rules is higher than the above standards, the original provisions shall still be implemented.
Why does the coal price break through the annual long-term association price (725 yuan / ton) and how long can it last?
People in the coal industry said that the rise was mainly affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday. At present, the inventory of the coal market is low and production is still recovering.
In terms of upstream producing areas, the daily coal output of Inner Mongolia Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) city was stable at about 1.83 million tons during the Spring Festival, which was significantly lower than the peak of 2.93 million tons in the previous two months.
“After the Spring Festival, coal prices did rise again.” A person from a coal sales enterprise in Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) City, Inner Mongolia told the Shanghai Securities News that compared with before the festival, the current high-quality raw coal blocks of 5200 to 5600 kcal have increased by 10-20 yuan / ton compared with the previous days.
During the Spring Festival, many places in the South ushered in cold and snowy weather. From January 31 to February 6 (from the eve of the lunar new year to the sixth day of the first month), the load and power of China Southern Power Grid increased year-on-year. The unified dispatching and receiving power of the whole network was 16.634 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 13.73%. During the Spring Festival holiday, the maximum load of China Southern Power Grid was 129 million kW (the sixth day of the first month), an increase of 11.41% year-on-year. From January 31 to February 5 (from the eve of the lunar new year to the fifth day of the first month), the average daily power generation and reception in the operation area of the State Grid increased by 18.13% compared with the same period of the Spring Festival last year.
The increase in power generation means that downstream power plants have a strong demand for active replenishment of coal. However, as an important intermediate link connecting the place of origin and the place of sale, the total coal storage in the four major ports around the Bohai Sea, such as Qinhuangdao port, was 15.39 million tons as of February 8, a decrease of nearly 5 million tons compared with the middle and first ten days of January. At present, the coal inventory level at the port of the Yangtze River estuary is lower. Low inventory has promoted the enthusiasm of traders to raise prices.
In the short term, it is unlikely that the port coal inventory will rise rapidly. Some people in the coal industry told reporters that recently, affected by the upside down shipping and policies, traders’ enthusiasm for shipping was low. In addition, the average daily shipping volume of Daqin was only about 1 million tons, a decrease of 200000 tons / day over the same period last year.
Yang Jie, deputy director of the research department of Yimei Research Institute, said in an interview with the Shanghai Securities News that the rainy and snowy weather in the South increased in the first week after the Spring Festival holiday, and the temperature was lower than that in the same period in previous years. It is expected that the daily consumption performance of the power plant is still high. In the case of low inventory in coastal ports, the rigid replenishment of power coal in some power plants after the festival promotes the strong operation of the short-term coal market.
“Next, the time node that needs attention is late February.” Yang Jie said that first of all, the shutdown period of the Spring Festival will officially end in late February, and the Winter Olympic Games will also close on February 20. After that, the resumption of coal mines in the production area is expected to reach a high level; Secondly, the supply of Indonesian thermal coal after the lifting of the export ban will also be concentrated in late February; Moreover, the temperature is expected to gradually warm up, and the power plant will enter the stage of taking the initiative to go to the warehouse. At that time, we can track and pay attention to whether the passive accumulation of reservoirs can occur in ports and pits during the active warehouse removal cycle of the power plant.
In addition, investors should be reminded that the national development and Reform Commission released a news on February 8 to stabilize market expectations. According to reports, during the Spring Festival holiday, various regions and central enterprises have made efforts to stabilize coal production and supply and scientifically arrange production and sales. The daily output, supply and shipment of coal are higher than the level in the same period of the lunar calendar, effectively ensuring the demand for coal during the festival. Since the third day of the first month, coal production in various regions has rebounded rapidly, and has basically returned to the pre holiday level. The coal storage of national unified dispatching power plants has remained above 165 million tons, an increase of more than 40 million tons over the same period last year. With the accelerated recovery of coal production, the demand for coal in superimposed heating season has decreased, and the guarantee capacity of coal supply will be further enhanced.
