Event: during the Spring Festival, we conducted a grassroots investigation on the super commercial channels of 7 provinces and cities (Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Chongqing, Zhejiang Shaoxing, Shandong Weifang), and conducted some channels research on some Baijiu dealers. Combined with the overall sales situation, we made feedback on the dynamic marketing and promotion of the spring festivals.
Baijiu: regional leaders are booming, and high-end and secondary high-end products are growing steadily. According to the research of grass roots and channels, Baijiu consumption scene has been gradually restored, and the impact of the epidemic has weakened. The goal of the established target is expected to be successfully realized. Regional differentiation: (1) non epidemic areas are better than epidemic areas. For example, Jiangsu, Anhui and other places are popular in the Spring Festival, while Henan, Tianjin and other places are obviously weak, and Hunan, Sichuan and other places are stable; (2) Population exporting provinces benefit from the tide of returning home and the low base effect in previous years, which is generally good; (3) Channel chaos disturbs the market. For example, the performance of Shandong is weak, partly due to the fleeing of products in Henan. Phase differentiation:
(1) the scenario is the key, and the price band that depends on the scenario performs well in the context of scenario recovery; (2) the performance of income dependence is steady, such as high-end Baijiu and so on. (3) The performance of enterprises relying on investment promotion is weaker than that of last year, which is due to the base factor and the serious impact of the epidemic in the investment promotion areas this year, but the overall growth rate is still considerable; (4) The cultivation of some products has achieved initial results, such as mengsan crystal version, Dongzang Series in Hefei, 518 in some parts of Anhui and other products.
Popular products: 1) beer: there are great differences in goods age and display around the country, and the promotion is weakened. According to the sample Ka, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) distributes more goods in North China and East China, and relatively less in South China, Chongqing and other western regions. There are many promotional activities, but the intensity is small. Aogute has piles and counters; Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) there are many goods in North and East China. U8 has a 8-10% discount promotion, and the goods are about 1-8 months old; Budweiser Asia Pacific basically covers the national sample market, the display is close to that of Tsingtao beer, the goods are about 1-3 months old, and the overall dynamic sales are good; China Resources also distributes goods across the country, but there are fewer SKUs and less promotional activities, and the goods are about 4-7 months old; Heavy beer is basically distributed in the western region, with less SKUs in East China, North China and South China, better dynamic sales in the west, and older goods in other regions; Pearl beer is also mainly distributed in South China, with less sales in other regions. 2) Dairy products: promotion efforts have been restored, and the overall dynamic sales are stable. In terms of white milk and normal temperature yogurt, from the perspective of sample Ka, Yili is close to Mengniu in terms of display and goods age. The overall goods age of white milk is 15 days-3 months, and that of normal temperature yogurt is about 1-3 months. The promotion of both is rational. In terms of cheese sticks, Miaoke has a significant advantage in the distribution of Ka samples in East China, which is slightly better than competitive products in other regions. The goods are younger than Yili, and the overall dynamic sales are benign. 3) Condiments: the price increase is gradually implemented, and the inventory dynamic sales are benign. As for the basic condiments, Haitian is the best displayed in the sample Ka, and Chubang, Li Jinji and Qianhe show obvious regional characteristics. The overall selling price has increased slightly, the promotion activities have weakened, and the price increase in the early stage has been gradually and smoothly implemented at the terminal. Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) display has advantages over competitive products. There are few promotional activities and no shopping guides around the country. The price of fresh and crisp shredded vegetables is about 2.5-3.5 yuan, and more than half of the samples have Ka of 3.5 yuan. In terms of stock age, the inventory is relatively benign. The display has advantages over competitive products, the stock age is shorter, and the price increase is progressing smoothly.
The overall competition of compound condiments is fierce. There are many displays in Haojia, Yihai, Qiaotou and Dezhuang. Yihai’s dynamic sales are slightly better than Haojia. The dynamic sales and goods age of compound condiments and hot pot bottom materials are about 1-3 months, and the dynamic sales are benign. 4) Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) : the goods age is short and the price is stable. The price of Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) is slightly higher than that of competitive products. It is distributed all over the country. The age of dry yeast is about 1-2 months, and the overall dynamic sales payment is in place smoothly.
Investment suggestions: we should pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the recovery of consumer scenarios in the context of mass upgrading. In terms of Baijiu, the overall dynamic marketing is better than the pessimistic expectations, far stronger than the expected decline. The regional wine boom is positive, and stability and performance elasticity are all obvious. We recommend Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) and so on. The current valuation of sub high-end leaders is reasonable, and there is a logic to improve the concentration after the impact of the epidemic. It is recommended to Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , and pay attention to Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) . In terms of high-end, the recommended brand is resilient, and there is still a poor expectation of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) . In terms of popular products, it is suggested to keep up with the pace of price increase and performance release, as well as the targets benefiting from the recovery of consumption scenarios. At present, it is recommended to focus on those with smooth price increase and good demand margin, such as Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , and pay attention to Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) . Secondly, it is recommended to recommend high-quality targets in the catering supply chain, such as Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) . Those with large profit elasticity, such as Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) , and pay attention to Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) .
Risk warning: the market is subject to systematic risks, with great economic pressure. The market has too high expectations for regional wine and ignores the outflow of population caused by the resumption of work; Food safety risks; Sample selection deviation risk; Industry competition intensifies risks.
