In the first two trading days of the year of the tiger, only a few undervalued sectors related to “stable growth” can “prosper” in a share. In the two days, the trend of the main board is significantly stronger than that of the gem. The financial and real estate sectors with unsatisfactory performance in 2021 continue to maintain a stronger market than growth stocks.
“Look at Gu ailing, don’t look at the market!” On the morning of February 8, some investors lamented that the sharp decline of the gem and the sluggish performance of various leading stocks dragged down the overall performance of the market. In the afternoon of that day, the market recovered to a certain extent driven by bank stocks, but it could not prevent the gem from entering a technical bear market.
Spring Festival market opening style switching
The market style has switched from overvalued value to undervalued value. In fact, it has been fully opened since the central bank lowered the reserve requirement in December 2021. In the view of some senior insiders, this switching may become the main investment line in 2022.
At the beginning of the year of the tiger, the gem index once fell below 2800 points, and the cumulative adjustment range has exceeded 20% since the recent high, entering a technical bear market.
On the first day of opening on February 7, the Shanghai stock index rose 2.03%, and the gem rose only 0.31%. On February 8, the market continued the trend that the main board was stronger than the gem. At the close of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.67% to 3452.63, and the gem closed down 2.45% to 2846.48 points. The index was significantly differentiated. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750. SZ) fell 6.66%, leading the decline in the new energy sector. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 879.89 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 817 million yuan.
In the view of insiders, the promotion of the spring market or the characteristics of style switching, valuation repair is still the main line of the current market, and value stocks are expected to continue to outperform high valuation growth stocks.
Hu Yu, partner and research director of Shenzhen Chengnuo asset management company, told China first finance and economics that from the market on the 8th, we can see the clue: the collapse of emerging industries across the board indicates that the tide of emerging concept stocks with high valuation has ebbed, and the rhythm of position adjustment and stock exchange of large institutions may further promote the strengthening of this trend. Hu Yu predicted that the probability of further accumulation of funds and undervaluation of sectors will further increase in the future. At present, the Shanghai index has not accumulated large risks, and more risks may come from emerging hot industries.
Fan Jituo, a strategic analyst at Cinda securities, said that the undervalued sector related to steady growth is expected to continue to generate excess returns. Overall, the market is expected to remain biased in value in the first half of the year, and growth stocks will not be able to fully return until the second half of the year. Financial and real estate stocks generally “advance, attack and retreat” in the middle and later stages of the economic downturn, and the steady growth will be gradually strengthened, which can continue to exceed such targets until the second quarter.
Xingshi investment believes that from a longer time perspective, there will be good investment opportunities in the capital market under the background of China’s sustained economic growth. The certainty of “steady growth” in the first half of 2022 is great. The bottom of economic growth may not be far away. It is expected that more industries will have marginal recovery of prosperity, which will support the A-share market from the fundamentals. At present, the market response to the “steady growth” policy may not be sufficient, and there are still structural opportunities in the market that are worth exploring.
Strategy researcher Jiangxi Jdl Environmental Protection Co.Ltd(688057) of the Equity Research Department of Golden Eagle Fund also said that the weakness of film box office and China’s tourism data during the Spring Festival further highlights the current downward pressure on China’s demand. The market holds expectations for the “good start” of credit, the market expectation of the “steady growth” policy is rising again, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to improve significantly in the first quarter, This has also driven the strengthening of new and old infrastructure varieties such as green power and cement after the festival. The overall turnover of the A-share market remains at a conservative level of more than 800 billion yuan before the festival, indicating that the current Chinese market sentiment has not changed significantly. The main line of “steady growth”, i.e. bank real estate chain, new and old infrastructure chain and mass consumption, will still have expectations for the main line and can participate on bargain hunting before the policy is implemented.
Galaxy Securities also said that from the historical law, the market will generally experience a period of decline before the opening of the spring market, and the decline range of the early market determines the rebound strength of the spring market to a certain extent. In addition, the optimistic policy is the sufficient condition for the opening of the market in spring. Over the years, the release of liquidity by the central bank, the recovery of credit data and the maintenance of stability by regulators are the driving forces of the upward market in spring. At present, it is in the stage of gradual development of the steady growth policy.
is there any play for overvalued growth stocks
In less than two months, the adjustment range is more than 20%. Is there any play for the overvalued growth stocks represented by the component stocks of the gem index and the new energy industry chain?
From 2019 to 2021, for three consecutive years, the track stocks represented by new energy have taken the bull, which has also broken the curse of the fund champion of A-Shares for many years. Many fund managers who obtained higher returns in 2019 have continued to make good achievements in 2020 and 2021, but can this continue to the fourth year?
Investors have some differences on the views of A-share growth stocks. Some insiders believe that the current collective interest rate increase by overseas central banks will affect the trend of overvalued sectors in emerging markets in this liquidity inflection point environment, and the transmission effect on A-share related sectors can not be ignored. However, some market participants are relatively optimistic that some sectors will have layout opportunities after substantial adjustment.
Li meicen, a strategic analyst, said that central banks around the world have raised interest rates one after another. The overseas macro environment is facing a liquidity inflection point, and there is great pressure on the overvalued sector. The market trend in recent months also shows once again that we need to pay attention to the transmission of overseas liquidity inflection point to emerging markets. At present, the style of A-share market has been switched and continues to switch to big finance. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to add big finance and stable growth chain (bank and real estate chain).
Li meicen said that after the beginning of the epidemic, the phenomenon of residents waiting for work at home in some overseas countries was serious. After the corresponding contraction tables, interest rates and liquidity contraction policies are launched, the capital market and stock market will probably suffer greater volatility and greater differentiation. The high valuation sector will squeeze bubbles. The global capital market and investment framework system may need to assess the impact of interest rate uplink on asset pricing. This new change may break the old consensus that has been adapted in the past few years. A “new consensus” is being established.
The US interest rate hike in March was basically determined. On February 3, the Bank of England raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.5%, and announced the start of the “table contraction” process. The European central bank stressed that the duration of inflation was longer than expected, and its statement was more “Eagle” than market expectations.
During the period of “stepping on the stock of funds” and “stepping on the stock of funds” in China’s science and technology sector, it further enlarged the main line of “stepping on the stock of funds” and “stepping on the stock of funds” in the upstream sector, especially in the period of “stepping on the stock of funds” in China’s science and technology sector at the beginning of the year. However, looking forward to the future industry configuration, under the balanced configuration, we can pay attention to the technology sector with cost-effective valuation. After the adjustment of the short term technology sector, in the subsequent intensive disclosure period of the quarterly report, the stocks with high performance and cost-effective performance will still be able to act as the current adjustment or is expected to provide a better opportunity for low absorption during the year.
Ma Wenyu, analyst at Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) , said that the Federal Reserve’s opening cycle of raising interest rates has been basically determined. In order to avoid causing severe market fluctuations and systemic risks, the Fed will communicate more actively with the market. Under the backdrop of the current big asset bubble, the spillover risk of liquidity recovery stage is still worth noting. The poor policy of internal loosening and external tightening and the uncertainty risk of the global financial environment will be the core issues that A-Shares need to pay attention to in the first half of 2022. The risk of uncertainty still exists, and the downward pressure on China’s economy is also large. In this context, it is suggested to moderately reduce the position of growth stocks in the track in the short term, and focus on the mandatory consumption sector with defensive attributes and the undervalued sector with high prosperity, waiting for the opportunity to counterattack.
