In the early morning of February 7, Guangxi Baise issued a notice: from 0:00 on February 7, all employees will be isolated at home and the "no entry, no exit" measures will be implemented throughout the region.
As one of the major aluminum producing areas in China, what impact will the above epidemic bring?
On the 7th, the aluminum sector took off, Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) rose by more than 7%. Electrolytic aluminum futures and spot both rose sharply, and the spot exceeded 22000 yuan / ton.
Source: Wenhua Finance
According to institutional research, at present, the production of individual alumina enterprises in Baise is affected, the production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is normal, and the transportation is affected. Although the overall impact of the Baise epidemic on the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, any fluctuation on the supply side may increase the price fluctuation under the background of less than expected inventory accumulation and low global inventory.
transportation blocked
According to the research of Antaike, at present, the production of Baise electrolytic aluminum enterprise is normal, and there is no reduction in production except for the limited activities of employees. However, due to the impact of epidemic prevention policy, the transportation is greatly affected, including the transportation of aluminum ingots and alumina raw materials. At present, the local government is coordinating to handle the pass for the transportation of production materials and issue it to the production enterprises, but the impact has not been eliminated.
At present, there are 9 electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guangxi, with a built capacity of 2.695 million tons / year. Among them, Baise has a total capacity of 2.195 million tons / year, accounting for 81.4%.
In terms of alumina, by the end of 2021, there were 7 alumina producing enterprises in Guangxi, with a production capacity of 12.55 million tons / year, accounting for 13.8% of China's total production capacity. Among them, five alumina enterprises in Baise have a total production capacity of 9.55 million tons, accounting for 76% of the total local production capacity.
According to the research of Antaike, at present, only Huayin Aluminum Co., Ltd. has reduced production due to the epidemic. Three digestion production lines and two roasting furnaces have been shut down, and the production capacity has been reduced by about 1.2 million tons / year. Due to the road blockade, the transportation of ore across counties and cities is blocked, and the supply of raw materials cannot be met. At present, the production and transportation of raw materials are restricted by 4 other factories.
Antaike said that Guangxi, as China's main alumina export province, transports about 500000 tons of alumina every month. Under the control of epidemic prevention, the outward transportation of alumina is blocked, which will lead to a shortage of alumina supply in the Chinese market. In addition, alumina enterprises in Shanxi, Shandong and Henan have reduced production to varying degrees, and the four main alumina production areas have reduced production at the same time. The tightening of China's alumina supply in February has become an established fact. With multiple factors superimposed, the price will continue to rise.
ton aluminum profit continues to rise
Although the agency believes that the overall impact of Baise epidemic on China's electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, the average price of electrolytic aluminum still rose sharply from 620 yuan / ton to 22270 yuan / ton on February 7, according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network.
In terms of electrolytic aluminum market, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) released a research report on February 7 that Chinese electrolytic aluminum enterprises continue to resume production, but the production capacity is still in the climbing stage, and the effective production capacity increment is limited. In January, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 3.194 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. At present, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is about 86.9%.
On the demand side, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) said that although aluminum processing enterprises had holidays one after another before the Spring Festival, and the overall operating rate fell to 56.9%, the demand in the field of new energy remained strong, with the operating rates of aluminum sector, strip and foil being 83.0% and 83.7% respectively.
With the rise of aluminum price, the profit per ton of aluminum continues to improve. Liu Xiaolei, director of big data Department of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, said that on January 28, the cost of electrolytic aluminum was 17864 yuan / ton and the profit per ton of aluminum was 3785 yuan / ton. According to the Research Report on February 7, the profit per ton of aluminum is about 4889 yuan / ton.
nearly 70% of the company's performance is expected to increase
According to statistics, of the 24 aluminum industry companies that have disclosed the performance forecast for 2021, 16 have increased in advance, accounting for nearly 70%.
Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 3.28 billion yuan to 3.4 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 263.41% - 276.71%.
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 3.83 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 100.28%. Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) said that in 2021, under the background of the national dual carbon strategy, the ceiling of electrolytic aluminum production capacity will be further strengthened, and the supply of aluminum ingots will continue to be tight due to the influence of factors such as double control of energy consumption in some key areas and tight power supply; At the same time, the market demand remains strong, and the aluminum industry as a whole maintains a high outlook. In 2021, the average price of aluminum ingots increased by about 33.6% year-on-year.
From the perspective of downstream demand, the demand from new energy vehicles, power grids and other fields is in the ascendant. Industry insiders said that the aluminum price is expected to remain high, and the profits of relevant enterprises are expected to continue to improve.
