On February 7, the first trading day of the year of the tiger, the Shanghai index closed up 2.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index closed up 0.96%, the gem index closed up 0.31%, and the shares of more than 3400 companies rose. The positive factors of a good start deserve attention.
After the Chinese women's football team won the Asian Cup on the evening of February 6, some netizens joked that "the ball has been passed to a shares". Of course, in view of the current complex development environment, it is difficult to determine the trend of doubling the index in two years after winning the women's Asian Cup in 2006. However, today's A-share market, like the Chinese women's football team, is feeling an increasingly warm development atmosphere. Even if it may encounter phased difficulties, it will still strive to move forward towards the set goal.
"Having the foundation, conditions, confidence and ability to maintain stable, healthy and sustainable economic development" - this is the study and judgment made by the relevant person in charge of the national development and Reform Commission on the current economic situation in China, and it is also the realistic basis for investors to expect the tiger power of the A-share market.
The "report card" of China's economy in 2021 is bright: the total economic output exceeds 114 trillion yuan, and the advantage of complete industrial system continues to be highlighted; The volume of foreign trade broke the $6 trillion mark for the first time, reaching a record high; It has contributed more than 30% to world economic growth for many consecutive years and has become the main stabilizer and Beijing Dynamic Power Co.Ltd(600405) of global economic development. At present, although the external environment is becoming more complex and uncertain, and China's development is also facing triple pressure, the characteristics of China's economic development, such as strong resilience, great potential, broad prospects and long-term improvement, have not changed.
For example, in terms of consumption data, although the complete data has not been released, the popularity of the payment industry and logistics industry may be a better window to observe micro consumption: during the Spring Festival, the public's payment business volume continues to grow in shopping, catering, travel, leisure and entertainment and other scenes; Since the beginning of the Spring Festival transportation on January 17, the national postal express industry has collected and delivered express parcels, an increase of 34.1% and 36.94% respectively over the same period of the lunar calendar last year.
The monetary policy of "sufficient force" and "bigger toolbox" is an important factor to support the A-share market.
The central bank said that in 2022, it will strengthen cross cycle regulation, give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, be more proactive and enterprising, pay attention to advancing, guide financial institutions to increase support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development, and stabilize the macro-economic market, Create a suitable monetary and financial environment to promote high-quality economic development. On January 17, the people's Bank of China launched the MLF operation of 700 billion yuan and the reverse repurchase operation of 100 billion yuan in the open market to increase the liquidity supply and hedge the impact of short-term disturbing factors in advance. The bid winning interest rates of both instruments fell by 10 basis points; Driven by it, on January 20, the first phase of LPR in 2022 ushered in a "double drop". Sufficient liquidity will undoubtedly act on the A-share market by stimulating enterprise vitality and activating market trading.
The core of deepening the reform of A-share market is the real traction of A-share market.
In the new stage of high-quality development, China's economy really needs to strengthen the important function of the capital market in promoting the circulation of science and technology, capital and industry. This requires the A-share market to deeply promote the reform of the capital market with the full implementation of the stock issuance and registration system as the main line; Continue to maintain the normalization of IPO and refinancing; Stick to the "hard technology" orientation of the science and innovation board, continue to build the gem, give full play to the service ability of the Beijing stock exchange for innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, and standardize the development of private equity and venture capital funds
The pace of spring is in a hurry, but that doesn't mean that the cold is gone. In the first quarter of this year, China's economy still faced many uncertain factors, but the relevant departments obviously had a relatively clear understanding of this, and stressed the need to move the policy starting point forward appropriately, so as to make early arrangements, start early and achieve early results.
The national development and Reform Commission recently stressed that "we should step up the introduction of a series of policies and measures to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand. We should study and put forward targeted measures to revitalize industrial operation in a timely manner. We should carry out infrastructure investment moderately in advance and strive to form more physical workload in the first quarter"; The central bank stressed that "we should pay close attention to work, forward-looking operation and walk in front of the market curve"; The CSRC also made it clear that "the conditions for the full implementation of the registration system have been gradually met, and the reform plan is being formulated"
The plan of the year is spring. Through the good start of the spring of the year of the tiger, we can see that the endogenous driving force of China's economy and A-share market reform is the system ability formed by policy, capital and micro subjects. In fact, these are more valuable than the good start.
