Baijiu deserves to be the eternal topic of capital market. The first trading day of the year of the tiger, a financial V, Dong Baozhen, “fired off the” Research Institute of the Baijiu company, fired a wave of market concerns. He believes that from the Spring Festival Spring Festival several media field research, Baijiu terminal sales volume is not described by the securities research report so good, and even many places have appeared “busy season not prosperous” pattern. He reiterated his previous judgement that the downward turning point of the Baijiu period has already arrived, which is a tit for tat with the view of many recent research institutions.
What should we think of this divergence of views? I think the first thing to be clear is that whether it is quoted or cited in the media research, it is a partial fact that the whole Baijiu industry is not the whole picture. Brokers and media are the third party outside the industry. The real understanding of the actual situation of the Baijiu industry must be the real people in charge of production, sales and remittance data. The Research Report of securities companies will deviate from the fundamentals, and the research of the media may be incomplete. Even many people in the industry can’t see the whole picture of the industry. This is a basic judgment.
Secondly, no matter how to argue the fundamentals of Baijiu, the positive and negative sides here are all trying to figure out how much the value of Baijiu is reasonable, which is the key. Recently, Baijiu Baijiu insists that the liquor sector can not be said to be without logic: from the perspective of sector rotation, many brokers research reports actually think that there has been a big callback in the liquor sector in 2021, and in the current high tide track, there is a certain opportunity for Baijiu to exist. And in a macro environment of steady growth and consumption promotion, consumption will also benefit Baijiu consumption this year. Subtext is actually: market funds always have to be configured, we think that Baijiu is suitable.
Yesterday, the financial V obviously looked at the problem from another angle. His logic is that inflation and economic slowdown will lead to a decline in income levels, a decline in consumption and a decline in consumption. Historically, it has always been an external incentive for the outbreak of Baijiu bubble. At present, external incentives have come to an agreement. The research of several media on the terminal market during the Spring Festival this year just proves the link of “decline in consumption capacity” in its logical chain. The underlying line is: the value of Baijiu is too expensive now, so don’t worry about it.
In the eyes of a thousand people, there are a thousand Hamlets, and different views are drawn from different angles, which is a very normal phenomenon in the market. So how should we view the prospect of the Baijiu and Baijiu in the listed companies? The author believes that whether the macro environment is the background or the change of the industrial structure, or from the change of consumer behavior, Baijiu, as an industry or company, its final valuation foothold is the real sales volume, which is the most commendable point of yesterday’s V view.
But the question is, how to obtain the real sales data? This is not an easy task. It not only involves the core business secrets of each company, but also because the whole distribution chain is too long to grasp. At present, securities companies rely on dealer inventory data to simulate the whole picture, while media surveys focus on terminal consumption. Strictly speaking, they can not be regarded as perfect substitutes. And before it is finally confirmed, whether the securities companies are bullish or the logic of the financial big V is bearish, it is actually like Schrodinger’s cat, which can not be falsified. Perhaps the greatest charm of investment lies in this.
Doubt about the research and finance, V, Baijiu, the liquor stocks cycle turning point is coming.
Spring Festival Baijiu terminal sales increased slightly compared to the previous year, the brand advantage of the head is obvious, Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) is judged to be cloud and mud.
