Oil prices rose for seven consecutive weeks, reaching a new high in nearly seven years, and oil concept stocks stood in the wind.
During the Spring Festival, the international oil price soared, recorded the seventh consecutive week of rise last week, and the oil price hit a new high of for more than seven years. The crude oil futures on the New York Stock Exchange hit $93.17/barrel, and Brent crude oil hit $94 / barrel.
In the Chinese market, on the first trading day of the year of the tiger, the daily crude oil futures contract of Shanghai International Energy Trading Center fluctuated upward, the transaction was active, and the closing rose sharply by 4.52%.
tension on the supply side boosted oil prices
Winter storms brought freezing rain and snow, which continued to hit many states in the central and eastern United States, resulting in an increase in local demand for heating oil. The continuous cold weather may affect the shale oil exploitation in Texas, and some OPEC + oil producing countries are difficult to meet the production quota, resulting in the deterioration of the gap between crude oil supply and demand. According to EIA data, on January 21, 2022, the US crude oil inventory (including strategic oil reserves) was 1775.47 million barrels, which has decreased for seven consecutive weeks, pushing up crude oil prices.
At the same time, many major oil ports in Europe have been blocked, which has also exacerbated concerns about supply shortage. Oil loading, unloading and transshipment at several ports in Amsterdam and Rotterdam in the Netherlands and Antwerp in Belgium were blocked due to blackmail software attacks. As of February 4 local time, at least seven oil tankers had to wait outside Antwerp Port and were unable to dock. In addition, the geopolitical tension between Ukraine, NATO and Russia has continued the tension in the global crude oil market.
On the Chinese side, China and Russia recently signed another large order, opening up a new situation for mutually beneficial cooperation between the two sides in the fields of oil, natural gas and new energy. According to Rosneft's official website on February 4, Rosneft and Petrochina Company Limited(601857) Natural Gas Group signed an agreement to supply 100 million tons of oil to China through Kazakhstan for a period of 10 years. Factories in Northwest China will process crude oil to meet China's demand for petrochemical products. According to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , as of January 2022, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) has imported more than 300 million tons of crude oil and more than 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from the Russian pipeline.
JPMorgan has pointed out that the geopolitical risk of oil price has increased significantly in the future. If geopolitical risks escalate, oil prices may rise to $120 / barrel . Some OPEC + countries may find it more difficult to increase production because of insufficient investment over the years and it is more difficult to increase production after a significant reduction in production in the past two years.
oil stocks broke out and individual stocks performed well
On the first trading day of the year of the tiger, oil stocks broke out and continued to rise after opening high, Geo-Jade Petroleum Corporation(600759) , China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) , China Petroleum Engineering Corporation(600339) rose by the limit, Tong Petrotech Corp(300164) rose by 9.65% . From the market performance since January this year, Xinjiang Zhundong Petroleum Technology Co.Ltd(002207) and Petrochina Company Limited(601857) share prices have increased by more than 10%.
Yesterday, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) rarely rose by more than 9%. The latest market value was 1003 billion yuan, and the market value soared by 84.2 billion yuan a day. The latest data show that the number of Petrochina Company Limited(601857) shareholders is as high as 600000. Before the Spring Festival, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) just released the performance forecast for 2021. Compared with the same period of last year, the net profit is expected to increase by 71-75 billion yuan, an increase of 374% ~ 395%, the best level in seven years. As for the reasons for the sharp increase in performance, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) pointed out that the international crude oil price continued to fluctuate and rise in 2021, China's macroeconomic recovery was stable, and the demand for oil and gas products increased year-on-year.
From the 24 oil concept stocks that have disclosed the annual report forecast or express report, only 4 stocks are expected to lose in 2021, and the performance doubled to 15 stocks, including Maoming Petro-Chemical Shihua Co.Ltd(000637) , Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) , Sino Geophysical Co.Ltd(300191) , Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(600688) , Xinjiang Zhundong Petroleum Technology Co.Ltd(002207) .
Tong Petrotech Corp(300164) is a leading enterprise in China's composite perforation industry and an international oil service enterprise with oilfield production as the core. The company's performance in 2021 is expected to turn losses into profits year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is expected to be 15 million yuan to 20 million yuan. As for the turnaround of performance, the company said that global economic activities gradually returned to normal, oil demand rebounded, international crude oil prices continued to grow, and the company's foreign businesses rebounded and recovered. At the same time, the company actively took cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures to improve the quality of operation and turn losses into profits.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that looking forward to 2022, China's unconventional oil and gas development is expected to continue, the permeability of new electric drive fracturing equipment may continue to increase, and the overseas markets such as North America will recover moderately. China's high-quality oil and gas industry chain enterprises are expected to fully benefit from the rapid growth of the boom upward cycle and achieve a breakthrough in globalization.
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