Yesterday's A-share year of the tiger "made a good start" Carnival, and today (February 8) investors' enthusiasm was poured with a basin of "cold water". The three major A-share indexes opened low across the board, and the Shanghai index maintained weak consolidation at the beginning of the market, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index fell all the way, especially the hit of popular stocks, which prompted the gem index to further decline, thus dragging down the shock and weakening of the Shanghai index, and the market trend was relatively ugly.
From the disk perspective, the light index heavy stock market has attacked, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and other high-priced hot stocks have staged a "mass extinction", while coal, infrastructure, tourism and hotels, education, retail and other sectors have risen against the trend, and the big finance led by banks, securities companies and insurance are also stupid and ready to move, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Guosheng securities mentioned that compared with the new infrastructure, the traditional infrastructure has more valuation advantages. Under the structural market of the current stock game, its investment value may become more prominent. In the future, we can focus on the sustainability of this sector. In terms of operation, it is advisable to abandon high to low, avoid poor performance stocks, grasp the layout opportunity of securities companies, infrastructure, large consumption and other sectors, or make a good choice under the current market.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme I] coal
Huabao securities mentioned that China's demand for coking coal is expected to decrease by 3% in 2022, and the output of coking coal will increase by about 4 million tons. The overall supply and demand of overseas coking coal is in tight balance. Considering that the import of coking coal is an important factor in adjusting the supply and that coking coal has little impact on people's livelihood, we tend to think that on the supply side, the increase of Mongolia's import will reduce the total import from other regions to a certain extent, and the increase of overseas import is generally cautious. According to the overall calculation, the tight situation of coking coal supply and demand will be alleviated and the supply and demand will be balanced in 2022. Based on 2022, the supply and demand of coking coal is in balance as a whole. It is estimated that the central price of Mysteel China coking coal price index is 1500 yuan / ton, and the central price of Xinhua Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) long-term association price index is 1200 yuan / ton.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) believes that in the medium and long term, under the background of lack of planned investment, the constraints on the coal supply side are strong. Under the background of small annual growth in demand, coal will be a scarce resource in the next few years, and the stock capacity or high profits. The increase of the benchmark price of the annual long-term association also ensures the ability of the industry to continue to make high profits. Under the dual carbon goal, Coal enterprises urgently need transformation. Power investment energy, Yankuang, Shenhua, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) and other major forces are in the direction of new energy operation and hydrogen energy. The coal industry has the advantages of strong cash flow and rich land resources in new energy operation, and has the ability and desire, The transformation in the direction of new energy is conducive to improving the valuation level of the overall sector (the current PE valuation is 5-6 times). Coal assets need to be repriced and continue to be optimistic about the investment value of the sector.
The agency further mentioned that the thermal coal stocks proposed to pay attention to: Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , power investment and energy, Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) . Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
In addition, Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that in the medium and long term, the space for new capacity is limited, the nuclear growth potential of stock capacity has been fully tapped, the coal supply is expected to peak ahead of demand, support the operation of coal prices at a high level, and the coal enterprises may usher in an era of sustained high profitability. We expect the performance of coal enterprises to return to a benign and stable release, which is expected to catalyze the valuation repair. At the same time, we recommend power investment energy, Yankuang energy and Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) as the targets of new energy transformation, and are optimistic about the transformation and growth potential of coal enterprises under the support of high performance. []
[Theme 2] tourist hotel
Dongguan Securities said that the proportion of short distance travel in the spring festival tourism market was further increased, the passenger flow of Spring Festival transportation increased significantly, and the impact of the epidemic was gradually reduced. Guided by the 14th five year plan, 2022 is expected to be the year of tourism recovery. It is suggested to pay careful attention to the leading outbound tourists Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) , Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) benefiting from the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism; Recommended franchisees account for a relatively high proportion of chain hotel leaders Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) with stable performance, and artificial scenic spot leaders Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) with large performance flexibility. They are expected to benefit from Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) of the Winter Olympic effect in the short term.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that judging from the repeated regional epidemics in China, it is suggested to grasp the phased market. China's long-term trend will continue to be firm in clearing cases, strictly preventing overseas imports, accelerating vaccination and research and development of multiple vaccines, and realizing mass immunization as soon as possible. During the Spring Festival, the Winter Olympic Games were held in Zhangjiakou, Beijing. The government continued to take strict covid-19 prevention and control measures, and the restrictions on international flights were extended to at least the first half of this year. China's tourism industry continued to circulate internally, and the flow of outbound tourists continued to be transformed into Chinese tourism. China's tourism industry does not change the recovery trend, and the recovery process is repeatedly disturbed with the possible local epidemic. During this period, with theme investment and hot investment hotspots, the fundamentals of Companies in the industry showed continuous repair. It is suggested to pay attention to: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) .
In addition, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) mentioned that the tourism market recovered weakly during the Spring Festival holiday, and the overall consumer expenditure of residents maintained a steady growth. According to the data of the Ministry of culture, tourism and tourism, 137 million people traveled in China in the first three days of the holiday, which recovered to 71.5% in the same period of the Spring Festival in 2019 according to a comparable standard. The recovery rate was weak compared with 70% in the golden week of November 2021. This was mainly due to the repeated epidemic in many parts of the country since January 2022, and the travel of provinces and cities such as Beijing and Zhejiang was limited. Population mobility has increased, and the overall consumption expenditure of residents is expected to maintain a steady growth. According to Netcom data, in the five days before the Spring Festival holiday in 2022, the Netcom platform handled 6.236 billion inter agency online payment transactions, with an amount of 4.20 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% and 11.6%. []
[Theme 3] architectural decoration
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that recently, the central government mentioned the new special debt, focusing on water conservancy, transportation, municipal infrastructure construction, affordable housing projects and other fields. The Ministry of water resources mentioned the implementation of major projects of the national water network. We expect the construction of underground pipe network and sponge city to bring sustainable increment during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The completion end of the real estate remained resilient, but the new construction and sales remained weak.
In terms of real estate, the easing signal has been gradually released, and the bottom of the policy has been found. We expect that the financing end of subsequent real estate enterprises and consumers is expected to be slightly relaxed. In addition, accelerating the construction of affordable rental housing during the 14th Five Year Plan period will bring some increment. Previously, the valuation of the decoration and building materials sector has been in the lower position of the historical center due to the slowdown in demand, the rise of raw materials and cash flow pressure. With the relaxation of expectations on the edge of real estate, the decline of high raw material costs, and the gradual release of bad debt provision and cash flow risk expectations, the overall sector is expected to usher in performance and valuation repair.
According to China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities, the building materials industry will mainly focus on the following investment directions in 2022: (1) the leading consumer building materials enterprises benefiting from the improvement of industry concentration: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , ad shares. (2) Glass fiber faucet benefiting from the increase of wind power demand: China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) . (3) Glass faucets with multi business layout Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) . (4) Regional leaders of cement industry Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) benefiting from the recovery of infrastructure investment. (5) The production capacity of high-purity quartz sand is Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) . (6) Benefiting from the increased demand for ceramic fibers Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) .
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) pointed out that there are two main lines for investment in the construction industry in 2022 - infrastructure development, new energy infrastructure and fabricated buildings, steel structure. It is suggested to pay attention to the central enterprises of traditional buildings: 1) optimize the central enterprises of new energy infrastructure: China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) . The world's top 2 energy and power construction enterprises have deeply benefited from the large-scale construction of new energy under the "double carbon" strategy. The performance of the "14th five year plan" is high, and the growth is determined to be high. The value of the installed assets of wind and solar power generation in hand is expected to be revalued.
2) optional building steel structure track Faucet: Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) . Under the "double carbon 1 + n" policy system, fabricated steel structure has an advantageous development pattern with lower carbon emission intensity. In 2022, government investment in infrastructure, public construction and other fields is expected to make great efforts. As a leading enterprise in the two major subsidiaries of steel structure manufacturing and Engineering in China, β+α Resonance, optimistic about the performance of Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) and Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) in 2022.
3) pay attention to traditional infrastructure central enterprises: China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) . During the 12th Five Year Plan period and the 13th Five Year Plan period, China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) and other traditional "iron public base" construction central enterprises strategically arranged "big municipal" and "big city construction", landed in cities and realized business structure adjustment and transformation. The above-mentioned enterprises are expected to benefit from the development of urban agglomeration and urban internal infrastructure. []
[theme 4] bank
Huafu Securities pointed out that at present, the overall profitability of the banking industry in 2021 continues to improve compared with that in 2020. Considering that the economic situation still faces many challenges, the regulators have reached a consensus that the policies in the first quarter will be launched one after another to form a positive front-end policy portfolio, including appropriately arranging infrastructure investment in advance, continuously issuing policies to expand domestic demand Strengthen the support for the "three child policy". We have confidence in the overall development of the banking industry in the "year of the tiger". In addition to the gradual mitigation of some risks such as real estate, we see that the future policies will continue to boost the economy. We also see that the banking industry itself is active in the transformation and serving the real economy, with the dual channels of China and the world, With the increase of digital economy and the deepening of wealth management, the banking industry in transition deserves a more flexible valuation comparison system, and the annual profit expectation of the "tiger" of the banking industry is stable and good.
Ping An securities mentioned that from the performance express disclosed before the Spring Festival, under the downward pressure of the economy in the fourth quarter of 2021, the fundamentals of most listed banks remained stable, the revenue growth rate increased steadily, the asset quality was generally stable, the asset negative ends expanded steadily, and the profit growth rate maintained high growth. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2022, the gradual implementation of the steady growth policy is expected to support the fundamentals of banks. At present, the static valuation level of the sector is only 0.64x, which is still at an absolute low in history and has a sufficient margin of safety. We are still optimistic about the valuation repair opportunities of the sector under the excessively pessimistic expectation of the economy and the quality of bank assets.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said that in the short term, when the sector valuation is at a historical low, it is expected that with the steady growth and the implementation of wide credit measures, the banking sector valuation will continue to repair and outperform the market. []
