600 thousand fans V Baijiu questioned the authenticity of the Baijiu market research, making the former “core assets” liquor stocks market trend become the focus of the market.
In February 7th, the financial giant V, “no extreme Thai Dong Baozhen”, who had 612 thousand fans, said that the researchers did not go deep into the terminal research, but only by emphasizing the channel inventory and money back, they valued the Baijiu market, thereby questioning the authenticity of the Baijiu Market Research Report. Analysts say the V is certified as chairman of investment management and no Tai Tai fund manager. The reason why he is doubtful about the research of Baijiu stock may be due to his recent views on Baijiu stock. During the Spring Festival, the big V published Dong Baozhen: Baijiu has entered the turning point of the big cycle. Many securities companies and fund institutions hold a bullish view.
As the former “core assets”, the outlook of Baijiu shares is divided.
finance and economics V questioned Baijiu research
On February 7, an article published by finance and economics V “no extreme Tai Dong Baozhen” on the social platform attracted market attention.
“No extreme Thai Dong Baozhen” said in the above article, “researchers have stressed that there is no problem in channel inventory, and dealers are also very normal in making money to the distilleries, so the researchers say that Baijiu is what is called” Forever God “. In the view of “no extreme Tai Dong Baozhen”, up to now, the research reports of the researchers have not talked about terminal mobile sales, nor have they seen the researchers go to supermarkets and stores to investigate.
“No extreme Thai Dong Baozhen” believes that any Baijiu liquor channel and inventory specific quantitative indicators are inaccurate. The channel inventory can only be comprehensively calculated and observed based on many indicators. Therefore, “no mention of terminal sales status” is based on the “dealer inventory is normal and the funds are normal”, and the conclusion is doubtful.
Source: microblog
According to the TAM, the concept of Baijiu is weak in February 8th. By midday closing, Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) had fallen by more than 6%, while Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) had fallen by more than 4%.
released Baijiu empty view
The big V has been certified as “Lingtong Sheng Tai Investment Management Chairman and no Tai Tai fund manager”. Recently, he issued the viewpoint of Baijiu stock.
Source: microblog
Baijiu (Baijiu) has published “Dong Baozhen: Baijiu has entered a downward turning point of the great cycle” during the Spring Festival (February 5th). It also said that the price cycle of Moutai liquor is the price cycle and operating cycle of the liquor industry, and the price of Moutai liquor is the most intuitive indicator of observing the liquor cycle. The reasonable price of Maotai liquor should fluctuate between 1 / 3-1 / 2 of the urban per capita monthly wage income. If it exceeds 1 / 2, there will be an inflection point due to overestimation. The price of Maotai reached 3500 yuan when it was the highest, which has greatly exceeded 1 / 2 of the per capita monthly wage income in cities and towns, so its downward inflection point can not be avoided and has appeared.
“The Baijiu industry is at a high price and a high inventory level. At present, the price has evolved to a high level, and stocks are beginning to fall, and prices and inventories are strengthening each other, and the downward cycle is coming.” The big V wrote in the article.
Securities companies and funds are generally bullish
Despite the empty voice, the current Baijiu stock market has become the mainstream market view after the continuous callback.
China Securities Journal, the central certificate Taurus reporter found that Baijiu in the Wind research platform has exceeded 5000 copies of relevant research reports and comment articles. There is no bearish view in the relevant research reports and comments displayed on the home page.
Among them, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that a callback year ago has basically released the market’s negative sentiment for the peak season, and the track shows that the Baijiu sales performance has been stable during the Spring Festival season, and the market sentiment is expected to gradually warm up. At present, the high-end Baijiu is still the first to be promoted, and the real estate wine opportunities and secondary high-end marginal changes are concerned.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities said that at present, the Spring Festival dynamic sales has become one of the core factors most concerned by the market. After communicating with some dealers in many places across the country, it is considered that the Spring Festival dynamic sales are stable as a whole, the market performance of Jiangsu and Anhui is good, and the performance of high-end wine is relatively stable. The payment collection of leading liquor enterprises is generally stable, and the payment collection progress of some enterprises is better than that of the same period last year. The mobile sales of Spring Festival are less affected by the epidemic. After the stable implementation, the annual performance of leading enterprises is improved. Considering the continuous improvement of the comprehensive competitiveness of famous and high-quality wine enterprises, the current valuation of high-end and sub high-end leaders has a margin of safety, and Coke will wait for the future.
Many fund agencies also recently issued Baijiu shares.
In February 7th, Hou Hao, deputy director of investment fund quantification investment department, pointed out that the Baijiu sector had been revised down to the allocation interval after recent adjustment. Under the expectation of steady economic growth, consumption resilience is strong. Lengthen the time, the Baijiu sector still has better allocation value under the trend of consumption upgrading and concentration increasing.
Bao Jigang, chairman of Wukong investment, said that after a round of valuation adjustment, Baijiu industry had a relatively high degree of certainty, which had rebounded in a certain range, and the share price was out of the bottom area. However, it also pointed out that if we want to reach a new high in the future, there is still a lack of new catalysts, which may take a long time.
Doubt about the research and finance, V, Baijiu, the liquor stocks cycle turning point is coming.
Spring Festival Baijiu terminal sales increased slightly compared to the previous year, the brand advantage of the head is obvious, Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) is judged to be cloud and mud.
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