Today (February 8), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a differentiation pattern of "strong Shanghai and weak Shenzhen". The three major A-share indexes opened low in the morning, and the Shanghai index maintained a weak consolidation, while the gem index and Shenzhen Composite Index fluctuated and fell all the way, both breaking the recent lows, thus dragging down the Shanghai index; In the afternoon, the large financial market supported the market, and then the Shanghai index rebounded from the bottom, and finally the red market closed. The gem index and Shenzhen composite index also stopped falling in the afternoon, and the decline further converged, but the weak pattern throughout the day was obvious.
In this regard, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) believes that China's market sentiment has been at the historical freezing point. Under the background of stable growth and loose liquidity policies, we remain optimistic about the future market. After the release of short-term panic, the index may have strong room for repair.
At the same time, Guosheng securities mentioned that compared with the new infrastructure, the traditional infrastructure has more valuation advantages. Under the current structural market of stock game, its investment value may become more prominent. In the future, we can focus on the sustainability of this sector. In terms of operation, it is advisable to abandon high to low, avoid poor performance stocks, grasp the layout opportunity of securities companies, infrastructure, large consumption and other sectors, or make a good choice under the current market.
sector:
I. brokerage concept
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that policies are frequent, and they are optimistic about the long-term development of securities companies. ① Recently, a series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) are conducive to the industrial chain of ficc, wealth management and large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center has increased: the wealth management business has continued to grow, and the channels, products and investment advisers have benefited deeply; The scale of derivatives has maintained rapid growth in recent years, new products have been launched one after another, the superposition system has been continuously standardized, and ficc constitutes the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increment. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (2015-2016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies.
Xiangcai Securities pointed out that in terms of policy, it is expected that this year's "steady growth" policy is expected to continue to work, and the liquidity environment is stable and loose, supporting market transactions. The full implementation of the stock issuance and registration system has been steadily promoted, the capital market has continued to expand, and the prosperity of the industry has improved. In terms of valuation, the current valuation of Pb in the securities industry is 1.7x, which is in the 40% quantile of Pb in recent 10 years. The sector still has valuation repair space. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of head securities companies under the transformation of wealth management.
AVIC Securities believes that in the long run, there are multiple positive factors with strong certainty in the securities sector: first, there is a high probability of performance. The annual report performance of 2021 will be announced one after another. From the three quarterly reports, the performance of public funds, market trading volume, the scale of funds raised by investment banks and other market performance, most listed securities companies have a high probability of achieving high growth in 2021.
Second, the main line of "steady growth" is clear. For China's economic development situation in 2022, the central bank, the Ministry of finance, the national development and Reform Commission and other departments will focus on "steady growth", and it is expected that the "steady growth" policy will continue to work in the future. Therefore, we expect that with the support of stable growth policy, the US interest rate hike will not have much impact on China's liquidity environment in the short term.
Third, the wealth management track has a long slope and thick snow, which is still an important focus of the industry in the future. In 2022, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) , Nanjing Securities Co.Ltd(601990) and Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) have successively passed the qualification of fund investment advisory business exhibition. At present, 17 securities companies have conducted fund investment advisory business exhibition.
II. Coal
Huabao securities mentioned that China's demand for coking coal is expected to decrease by 3% in 2022, and the output of coking coal will increase by about 4 million tons. The overall supply and demand of overseas coking coal is in tight balance. Considering that the import of coking coal is an important factor in adjusting the supply and that coking coal has little impact on people's livelihood, we tend to think that on the supply side, the increase of Mongolia's import will reduce the total import from other regions to a certain extent, and the increase of overseas import is generally cautious. According to the overall calculation, the tight situation of coking coal supply and demand will be alleviated and the supply and demand will be balanced in 2022. Based on 2022, the supply and demand of coking coal is in balance as a whole. It is estimated that the central price of Mysteel China coking coal price index is 1500 yuan / ton, and the central price of Xinhua Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) long-term association price index is 1200 yuan / ton.
In addition, Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that in the medium and long term, the space for new capacity is limited, the nuclear growth potential of stock capacity has been fully tapped, the coal supply is expected to peak ahead of demand, support the operation of coal prices at a high level, and the coal enterprises may usher in an era of sustained high profitability. We expect the performance of coal enterprises to return to a benign and stable release, which is expected to catalyze the valuation repair. At the same time, we recommend power investment energy, Yankuang energy and Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) as the targets of new energy transformation, and are optimistic about the transformation and growth potential of coal enterprises under the support of high performance.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) believes that under the background of lack of planned investment, the constraints on the coal supply side are strong. Under the background of small annual growth in demand, coal will be a scarce resource in the next few years, and the stock capacity or high profits. The increase of the benchmark price of the annual long-term Association also ensures the ability of the industry to maintain high profitability. Under the dual carbon goal, coal enterprises urgently need to transform, Power investment energy, Yankuang, Shenhua, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) and other major forces are in the direction of new energy operation and hydrogen energy. The coal industry has the advantages of strong cash flow and rich land resources in new energy operation, and has the ability and willingness. The transformation of new energy direction is conducive to improving the overall sector valuation level (at present, the PE valuation is 5-6 times), Coal assets need to be repriced and continue to be optimistic about the investment value of the sector.
The agency further mentioned that the thermal coal stocks proposed to pay attention to: Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , power investment and energy, Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) . Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
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