On the second trading day of the year of the tiger, the A-share market suffered a frightening day. The bottom of the two cities rebounded, and the gem index fell sharply, once falling more than 4% to 2800 points. In the afternoon, the decline narrowed and closed down 2.45%, creating a new low in this round of adjustment.
After hours, the reporter interviewed more than ten fund companies, including China Merchants, Huaxia, Boshi, Everbright Prudential, Golden Eagle, Cinda Australia Bank, great wall, ChuangJin Hexin, Nord, Jinxin and Hang Seng Qianhai, and interpreted the adjustment of today's market for the first time. It is generally believed that the obvious volatility in the market today is mainly due to the expected pressure of overseas liquidity and the rise of market risk aversion caused by China US relations, the superposition of high and low switching of funds, and the lack of confidence in China's steady growth.
Generally speaking, the public offering believes that there have been many irrational emotions in the market since mid December last year. Today's callback is a concentrated outbreak, so there is no need to worry too much about the market as a whole. The fund company said that the biggest disturbance factor in the short term is overseas supervision. The industries with deep decline in the early stage still have the internal driving force of short-term rebound. It is recommended to hold it patiently at the current time point, and there is no need to worry too much about the external impact.
the shock stems from overseas regulatory and liquidity expectations
superimposed fund high-low switching
On February 8, the three major stock indexes opened slightly lower in the morning, and then dived all the way. As of 11:06 a.m., the decline of gem index expanded to 4%, falling below 2800 points, a new low in 10 months.
The Shanghai Composite Index also lost 3400 points, rebounded higher in the afternoon driven by financial, coal and other sectors, returned to above 3400 points, and finally closed red, and the gem index also rebounded.
As of the close, the Shanghai composite index reported 3452.63 points, up 0.67%, showing a V-shaped trend throughout the day. Shenzhen composite index closed at 13325.41 points, down 0.98%; The gem index returned above 2800 points to 2846.48 points, narrowing its decline to 2.45%.
In terms of sectors, tourism, coal, education and other sectors led the increase; Sectors such as cro and semiconductor led the decline. Overall, stocks in the two cities rose more or fell less, among which "ningwang" fell nearly 10% in early trading, and the market value once evaporated nearly 120 billion yuan. It closed down 66.6% in the afternoon.
A number of fund companies believe that today's market adjustment is mainly due to the bearish sentiment caused by relevant bad news and rumors at the foreign regulatory level, as well as the change of capital level caused by the change of market style.
Cinda Aoyin Fund pointed out that after the festival, the market differentiation was once again extreme, with steady growth, rising related industries and falling prosperity. They believe that the main reasons are as follows: first, under the high peripheral inflation, the European Central Bank, which had previously been the world's most dovish, has also turned to hawks, and the global risk-free yield has increased, affecting overvalued stocks; Second, the United States once again included Chinese biotechnology companies in the "unverified list", which impacted market sentiment and brought institutional passive stop loss; Third, the postponement of the carbon peak target of the iron and steel industry has an impact on market sentiment.
Everbright Prudential Fund believes that at present or still in the stage of "value building", the "growth building" needs the improvement of risk appetite and the effect of policies.
Everbright Prudential fund analyzed in detail that the main reasons for the correction of the gem include but are not limited to: first, the US Department of Commerce included 33 Chinese units in the "unverified list" (UVL), involving affiliated enterprises of some pharmaceutical enterprises, but this UVL is significantly different from the entity list previously feared by the market. Moreover, the expansion of the scope of the sanctions also raised concerns that Chinese manufacturing companies in other fields may be added to the sanctions list, and the decline of some leading power batteries dragged down the new energy power system sector by more than 6%.
Second, the tightening expectation of overseas market policies was strengthened and slightly exceeded the market expectation. During the long holiday, the Bank of England announced that it would raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5% and launched the passive table contraction and corporate bond sales plan. The expectation that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in March and raise interest rates by 50bp at a time could not be falsified. The 10-year US bond interest rate stood at 1.9% driven by the non-agricultural data in January, which was much higher than expected.
Third, the market is worried that the strength of the steady growth policy faces more constraints, which is less than expected. The high-frequency data in January showed that the real estate sales data was further deteriorated compared with the previous period. The introduction of the "price limit order" of some real estate sent a negative signal, and the effect of policy easing was lower than that expected by the market.
Fourth, the "steady growth" transaction is still continuing. In anticipation of the improvement of fundamentals, the recent performance of infrastructure related sectors such as building materials and construction is good, and the market risk appetite is low. At the same time, some funds may switch from the overvalued growth sector to the "steady growth" field with more reasonable valuation, resulting in "negative feedback" in some sectors.
Today, the market reappeared the obvious shock trend. China Merchants Fund concluded that it was mainly due to the superposition of overseas liquidity expectation pressure and lack of confidence in China's steady growth. In terms of structure, the market style switching continues, and the track type direction is still under great adjustment pressure. Among them, power equipment and new energy led the decline due to the change of energy consumption policy.
Huang Xiaohu, investment manager of ChuangJin Hexin fund, said that the heavyweight stocks in the Chinese medicine and new energy sectors, a component of the gem, fell sharply today. On the one hand, the expectation of interest rate hike in the United States continues to rise, and global liquidity is expected to tighten, suppressing the valuation of growth stocks.
On the other hand, some CXO companies are included in the U.S. unverified list (UVL). China US relations have aroused concerns in the market, the risk aversion of funds has increased, and the stock funds flow from hot sectors such as new energy, medicine and consumption to stable growth sectors with greater certainty, forming an obvious seesaw effect.
Kong Xuebing, fund manager of Jinxin fund, said, "today, most of the sectors related to steady growth are stronger, with coal, construction, steel and other sectors leading the rise, and financial, real estate, electricity and oil and other sectors supporting the index; behind the stability of the index, growth sectors such as semiconductor, new energy, food and beverage are leading the decline, and the market sentiment is at a freezing point."
Kong Xuebing believes that since the beginning of the year, the market's expectations of policies related to steady growth have been chaotic. Superimposed on the external tightening effect and a new round of game between China and the United States, the market risk appetite has decreased significantly, the volatility of A-Shares has intensified, and the growth sector has encountered "killing valuation".
It is worth adding that the CXO sector led the decline in early trading today, in which the "Yaoming series" stocks suffered a sharp decline. A shares Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) fell by the limit in one minute at 94.05 yuan per share, and the total market value shrank from more than 300 billion yuan to 278 billion yuan. Shares in the same sector such as Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) and Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) fell. On the H-share market, "Yaoming series" stocks fell sharply, among which Yaoming biology suspended trading, and its share price fell nearly 23% before the suspension; Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) fell more than 15%.
To some extent, this is related to a message.
Boshi Fund pointed out that on the news side, according to U.S. media reports, the Biden government yesterday included 33 Chinese entities in the "unverified list" of the Ministry of Commerce, imposed new restrictions on the acquisition of products by these entities from U.S. exporters, and asked U.S. companies that want to do business with these Chinese companies to conduct additional investigations.
The report said that companies included in this list must accept stricter export controls because U.S. officials are unable to conduct routine verification. After the 33 Chinese entities were included, the total number of entities on the list reached about 175.
Zhu Mingrui, a medical researcher of Nord fund, believes that today's CXO sector has a large decline. It is mainly caused by the entry of a leading company in the industry into the UVL export control list of the United States. The main impact is that the company can no longer import bioreactors and some filters from the United States. The reason for the regulation is that its procurement volume is too large, resulting in a sharp decline in the whole sector.
"For macromolecular production, China is still in the early stage of independent control of raw materials, and is gradually getting rid of its dependence on European and American suppliers. For small molecule production, independent control of raw materials has been realized to a certain extent, so this decline has affected small molecule CXO enterprises to a certain extent." Zhu Mingrui said.
In terms of follow-up investment opportunities, for macromolecular CXO enterprises, since their filters and other consumables are still dependent on the United States, if they cannot be successfully removed from the list in the short term, it may have a certain impact on their subsequent development. For small molecule CXO enterprises, this decline actually has no impact on the fundamentals, because the proportion of small molecules that are independently controllable is higher, which may be a better buying time point. In addition, this event will benefit the medicine machine track to a certain extent. Today
Hang Seng Qianhai fund also said that today's adverse news in the pharmaceutical industry caused panic in the market and hit market sentiment. Some funds chose to sell companies highly affected by industrial policies or overseas to avoid uncontrollable risks, which caused a chain reaction and spread to other growth sectors.
Huaxia Fund said that affected by bad news and rumors, leading stocks of two mainstream popular tracks, innovative drugs and new energy, fell sharply. When the current market risk appetite has not been fully repaired, negative information has been over interpreted and reacted, and pessimism has spread to other growth stocks, resulting in new energy, medicine, semiconductor Electronics and other industries have adjusted, and the decline of gem is deeper, which is significantly weaker than that of the main board.
In view of the sharp decline of the gem, YONGYING fund also believes that the fluctuation is caused by Sino US trade friction, and the overseas liquidity risk has not been relieved at present. First of all, the US Department of Commerce included 33 Chinese units in the "unverified list UVL". Due to the listing of some cdmo pharmaceutical companies, the potential sanctions risk led to significant adjustments in relevant sectors. At the same time, the market was also worried about the weakening of the export competitiveness of other high-end manufacturing industries, which dragged down the performance of the gem.
YONGYING Fund said that after the Bank of England announced the interest rate hike, the European Central Bank was also changing its position in the face of the pressure of high inflation, and the interest rates of major overseas treasury bonds rose one after another. Today, the US bond interest rate rose from 1.92% to around 1.95%. Before the Fed's first interest rate hike in March, liquidity risk or phased disturbance to the market.
In addition to the negative factors in overseas regulation and liquidity, today's market decline is also affected by the switching of capital levels. Boshi Fund believes that the adjustment is mainly due to the high-low switching of funds and the strong bearish sentiment in the market.
Hang Seng Qianhai fund also pointed out that today's market decline may be due to the switching of market style. The market's concern about the economic downturn since the beginning of the year is reflected in the pursuit of funds in infrastructure and other sectors. Since 2020-2021, new energy has accumulated a large increase. Without obvious incremental funds, some funds have been transferred to the field of "stable economy", which has an impact on the growth sector represented by new energy.
In addition, concerns about industry logic are disturbing the market. Recently, the frequent occurrence of favorable policies on the steel industry has made the market worried about the cracks in the new energy logic in the short term.
Golden Eagle Fund also analyzed that during the Spring Festival, under the geo risk premium, the oil price broke through the $90 / barrel mark, and the bulk commodities represented by oil price, power coal and iron ore began to strengthen significantly, triggering a rise in the upstream cycle sector represented by coal and steel in the A-share market after the festival. On February 7, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of ecological environment jointly issued the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of the iron and steel industry. Compared with the exposure draft issued at the end of 2020, the carbon peak schedule of the iron and steel industry was postponed from 2025 to 2030.
In addition, the Golden Eagle Fund said that Henan Province adjusted the caliber of coal energy consumption for raw materials and raised the expectation of coal demand. Optimize the policy support of "carbon reduction cycle" in the upstream sector. At the same time, the market is worried that the improvement of traditional energy will correspondingly suppress the development process of new energy, and to a certain extent, it has also triggered a callback of science and technology sectors such as new energy.
In addition, the weakness of film box office and China's tourism data during the Spring Festival further highlights the current downward pressure on China's demand. Especially in front of the "two sessions" window, the market has maintained expectations for the "good start" of credit, the market expectation of the overweight of steady growth policy is rising again, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to be significantly improved in the first quarter, which also drives the green power The strength of new and old infrastructure varieties such as cement.
At the same time, some fund companies believe that in addition to the disturbance of overseas news, changes in market style, potential changes in industry logic and other factors, the adjustment of the market also represents that the current market sentiment is still fragile.
Great Wall Fund said that the sharp drop in early trading today was unexpected in the market. The "emergency + spark effect" led to the competitive decline of leading stocks in early trading, which led to the collapse of the sector. The sharp decline of the gem index was also mainly due to the collective decline of heavyweights under the impact of the event. Considering the fierce response of the market to rumors and emergencies, the root cause is that although the market has gradually stepped out of the bottom of fundamentals, the bottom of emotion has not been built, and the sensitivity and vulnerability of emotion makes it easy to overreact up and down.
Golden Eagle Fund believes that in the current market environment dominated by A-share stock funds, the strengthening of the traditional upstream cycle and the main line of "stable growth" also formed a diversion to the science and technology sector from the capital side. Especially during the period of institutional warehouse transfer at the beginning of the year, it further amplified the overall overshoot of the science and technology sector and triggered the stampede of Chinese funds.
During the Spring Festival, the global capital markets have improved, and US stocks have stabilized and rebounded, reflecting to some extent that the "tightening panic" in the periphery has been alleviated. Under the background of the stabilization of the RMB exchange rate, the funds going north have returned to A-Shares after the Spring Festival, but the overall turnover of A-share market remains at a conservative level of more than 800 billion before the festival, It shows that the current Chinese market sentiment has not changed significantly.
focus on overseas regulatory risks in the short term
not pessimistic about the future
In the view of fund companies, the current adjustment of A-share market is coming to an end, and the market situation in February is very worthy of expectation. On the one hand, the current market adjustment range has been relatively sufficient; On the other hand, the Fed's interest rate hike will not necessarily lead to the rise of China's interest rate. The current market liquidity and policy environment are very friendly to the market.
Cinda Aoyin concluded that since December 13 last year, there have been many irrational emotions in the market, and today's correction is a concentrated outbreak.
Kong Xuebing, fund manager of Jinxin fund, said that considering the valuation convergence degree of "old infrastructure" and "new growth" and the difference of industry prosperity, they tend to think that the overall valuation center of the A-share market is coming to an end. Under the background of improving liquidity environment, low overall market valuation and no systematic damage to the Growth Logic of emerging industries, Adhere to long-term optimistic about the future performance of science and technology growth companies represented by new energy and TMT.
"In the short term, the growth sector may rebound in a short time or in stages after the oversold. It is recommended to wait patiently for the cumulative effect of the Fed's interest rate increase and the policies related to steady growth, and still pay strategic attention to the industrial trends represented by domestic substitution, new energy and Automotive intelligence, represented by semiconductors and specialized Texin.
”Kong Xuebing said.
Huaxia Fund bluntly said that the reconstruction of market confidence still needs time and process, and the repair of risk appetite is not achieved overnight, but it is not appropriate to be overly pessimistic about the market at present. From the perspective of internal and external factors, on the one hand, the main risk of continuous adjustment of A-Shares before the festival has eased due to the stabilization of overseas markets.
On the other hand, the current concerns about the strength of steady growth policies have been alleviated, and then the effect of continued steady growth has initially appeared, and the fundamental confidence is expected to be gradually reshaped. Generally speaking, under the general trend of continued overweight of policies, improvement of residual liquidity and recovery of risk appetite, the index is also brewing new rebound opportunities after adjustment, shock and bottoming.
Huang Xiaohu, investment manager of ChuangJin Hexin fund, predicted that "after a certain degree of decline in the market, the risk of overestimation in some sectors has weakened. With the strength of fiscal and monetary policies related to steady growth, the macro-economy will gradually stabilize, and the A-share market is expected to usher in a certain repair."
Looking back, Everbright Prudential Fund believes that overseas risks may still be the main risks this year. It is expected that the first interest rate increase in March may bring relief to market sentiment and capital.
However, in the medium term, China's factors are still the key to affecting the market, and the improvement of risk appetite depends to some extent on the strength of "steady growth". Everbright Prudential Fund believes that the "steady growth" policy in the first quarter is still expected to work, and the overall downside risk of the market is limited. However, in the short term, the improvement of risk appetite may require more powerful "steady growth" measures or landing, so as to improve the downward profitability and weak volatility of the overall market. This week, we can focus on the social finance data in January.
Great Wall Fund said that objectively speaking, under the emotional overreaction, the valuation of many targets has been put in place and has the attraction of allocation. After the market sentiment has calmed down, you can pay attention to the opportunities on the right.
Great Wall fund expects that with the landing of substantive means of steady growth, the bottom grinding period of market sentiment will end, and the attitude will return to rationality in the face of event shocks at that time. The opening of the annual report season has brought a series of good news to be expected, and the central government's care for liquidity will gradually take effect. The recent decline caused by emotional factors may build a better participation gap.
China Merchants Fund also said that it was optimistic about the future trend of the A-share market and worked in the direction of undervaluation structurally. Looking back, on the one hand, the Fed's tightening expectation may peak in the first quarter, and the negative impact of overseas liquidity will be gradually alleviated; On the other hand, the positive factors will be gradually repaired, and the market is expected to gradually recover. At present, local governments have strong demands for stable growth. Many local governments have raised the target growth rate of fixed asset investment in 2022. With the approaching of the national two sessions in March, the steady growth policy will accelerate and exert its force.
In the context of steady growth, Boshi Fund believes that all policies serve to promote economic development, loose monetary policy will continue, the overall opportunities of A-Shares will be greater than risks in the future, the market style will be more balanced, there are still structural opportunities, and high-quality industry leaders will be more favored by funds.
Looking forward to the future, Hang Seng Qianhai fund judged that after the emotional venting, the trend of A-Shares may return to the normal track again. We are not pessimistic about this year's a shares. This year's A-Shares may show a "V" shape trend and a slow bull trend for a long time.
The overall goal of carbon peaking in 2030 and carbon neutralization in 2060 will not be reversed. The high-end manufacturing industries represented by new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and electronics have an increasing weight in a shares. These industries have long-term development logic. When the valuation is adjusted back to a reasonable range, they will have investment value in the long run.
optimistic about the main line of "steady growth + new energy + scientific and technological growth"
pay attention to the direction of profit reversal or marginal improvement
In terms of investment direction, the growth sector may rebound in a short term or stage after the oversold. It is suggested to pay attention to the technology sector with cost-effective valuation. In addition, focus on the main line of steady growth with consumption and infrastructure chain as the core.
Cinda Aoyin Fund said that there are three aspects that can be paid attention to in 2022 investment. One is the repair of over falling industries such as transportation / Tourism / breeding / real estate chain. At present, the market is in a chaotic period for this year's economic expectation and is overly pessimistic about the epidemic. Now the probability is the worst time of the epidemic in China, and most companies have enough odds after the decline of systematic risk probability.
Second, in the field of carbon neutralization, such as green power / new energy / wind power photovoltaic, the long-term policy / market space of carbon neutralization sector is still considerable, carbon control continues, and energy consumption control may slow down, but it does not shake the long-term logic;
Third, environmental protection / construction and other counter cyclical sectors. We believe that the certainty of their performance growth will be more fully reflected this year, which is worthy of the current certainty premium.
On the whole, the country's current determination to stabilize growth is obvious, and there is a lack of prosperity this year β In the context of, we will also focus on the mining of subdivided industries, and there is no need to worry too much about the overall market. Cherish the gem below 2800 and the Shanghai index below 3400. The industries with deep decline in the early stage have the internal driving force of short-term rebound. At the current time point, we suggest holding patiently without worrying about external shocks.
In the short term, Kong Xuebing believes that there may be a short-term or phased rebound after the oversold of the growth sector. It is recommended to patiently wait for the cumulative effect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase and steady growth related policies, and still pay strategic attention to the industrial trends represented by domestic substitution, new energy and automotive intelligence, represented by semiconductors and specialized special innovation.
From the perspective of opportunities, Huaxia Fund still maintains the investment main line of "steady growth + new energy + scientific and technological growth". In the short term, the market is more responsive to the rebound and repair of undervalued traditional real estate and infrastructure industry chains under the attitude of steady growth policy, with trading opportunities; While the stock prices of the industries with the highest growth in the early stage generally corrected and the valuation fell, but the varieties with long-term industrial prospects, high prosperity or sustained growth, such as new energy and digital economy, have long-term investment value.
In terms of structural allocation, China Merchants Fund said that the liquidity test in 2022 was not completed, superimposed on the low market risk preference, the market still flowed to the low, and the style accelerated the switch to the undervalued style. In the undervalued sector, we should pay extra attention to the direction of profit reversal or marginal improvement in 2022, and grasp the main line of stable growth with consumption and infrastructure chain as the core. The opportunity of track companies still needs to wait for the recovery of risk appetite.
When the economy is booming, the leading industries such as infrastructure and manufacturing will be favored by higher quality funds.
In terms of industry allocation, Everbright Prudential fund judged that the market may still be in the stage of "building a platform for value", and "growth singing" needs a significant improvement in risk appetite; Focus on the "three low and one high" (undervalued value, low position, low expectation and high dividend) sector. In the case of global tightening, rising interest rates and weak economic expectation, these targets mainly exist in traditional banking, real estate, construction, building materials, mining, steel and other industries. They can also tap the opportunities of undervaluation in other industries. At the same time, for scenic spots with low expectation and reversal of difficulties Trade and other sectors shall be properly configured. In addition, if the persistence of overseas inflation and the belief that the US interest rate hike is weaker than expected, gold can be configured to resist the risk of market decline.
Great Wall Fund said that under the balanced allocation, it pays attention to the technology sector with cost-effective valuation. In the short term, after the adjustment of the technology sector, in the subsequent intensive disclosure period of the quarterly reports, the business direction with high performance and cost-effective performance can still be adjusted. The main line of "steady growth", i.e. bank real estate chain, new and old infrastructure chain and mass consumption, will still be expected by the market before the policy is implemented.
In terms of follow-up investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector, Zhu Mingrui pointed out that for macromolecular CXO enterprises, since their filters and other consumables are still dependent on the United States, if they cannot be successfully removed from the list in the short term, it may have a certain impact on their follow-up exhibition industry.
"For small molecule CXO enterprises, this decline actually has no impact on the fundamentals, because the proportion of small molecules that can be controlled independently is higher, which may be a better time to buy. In addition, this event will also benefit the drug machine track to a certain extent, and the relevant targets of today's drug machine track also have a good performance." He said.
