In January, the sales trading amount of top 100 real estate enterprises was 525.6 billion yuan, and the overall performance scale in a single month decreased by nearly 40% year-on-year, 43% lower than the average level in 2021.
In the first month of 2022, the decline of real estate did not change, and real estate enterprises did not usher in a “good start”.
According to Kerui data, the sales trading amount of top 100 real estate enterprises in January was 525.6 billion yuan, and the overall performance scale in a single month decreased by nearly 40% year-on-year, 43% lower than the average level in 2021.
Among them, China Evergrande fell out of the top 40 and ranked 49th with a trading amount of 2.95 billion yuan. Shimao Group, which has frequently sold assets recently, fell out of the top 20 and ranked 28th with 6.01 billion yuan. Meanwhile, Longguang group and Renheng land rushed to 11th and 12th against the trend.
sales continued to decline, and leading enterprises also halved
The report of Shanghai Shenyin Wanguo Securities Research Institute pointed out that among the top 50 real estate enterprises it tracked, there was no data update for capital real estate, jiazhaoye and Xinli in January. After considering the sales data of insurance real estate enterprises, the actual sales of real estate enterprises in January fell more year-on-year.
In addition, according to the statistics of China Index Research Institute, in January 2022, the average sales volume of top 100 real estate enterprises was 6.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.1%. Among them, there were 15 real estate enterprises with sales of more than 10 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14; There were 22 real estate enterprises with sales of 5-10 billion, down 31 from the same period last year.
The sales growth rate of real estate enterprises in all camps decreased significantly. The average sales growth rate of 15 real estate enterprises (more than 10 billion) in the first camp is – 24.0%, and the average sales growth rate of 22 real estate enterprises (5-10 billion) in the second camp is – 31.3%; There are 20 real estate enterprises in the third camp (3-5 billion), with an average sales growth rate of – 33.8%, with the largest decline.
From the perspective of equity sales, only 9 real estate enterprises exceeded 10 billion in January this year, compared with 15 in the same period last year. The threshold value of equity sales top15 was 6.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.7%. Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Lujin group’s new equity sales top 15 list, China Evergrande, Shimao Group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) fell out.
As for the performance of real estate enterprises, except that the equity sales of country garden, CNOOC real estate, Longhu group and Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) did not decline compared with the same period last year, other real estate enterprises fell year-on-year. Among them, the equity sales of Vanke and China Jinmao in January were halved year-on-year.
In terms of equity sales unit price, among the top 15 real estate enterprises in January this year, except country garden, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) and Jinke group, the average sales price of the other 12 real estate enterprises was more than 10000 yuan. The top three housing enterprises with the most expensive houses are all central enterprises, namely Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , CNOOC real estate and China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) . The unit prices are 42800 yuan / m2, 19400 yuan / m2 and 19200 yuan / m2 respectively. Compared with the same period last year, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) and Jinke group reduced the most, about 8100 yuan / m2, 7700 yuan / m2 and 3800 yuan / m2 respectively.
The weak sales of real estate enterprises is related to the continuous low operation of the real estate market. According to the data of China Index Research Institute, in January 2022, the transaction area of commercial houses in 50 cities was about 24.26 million square meters, down 34.1% year-on-year and 24.0% month on month. The overall market sentiment was low.
In terms of sales price, the cumulative increase of new house price in China in 2021 was only 2.44%, which has been at a low point in recent five years. In January 2022, the average price of newly-built houses in Baicheng continued to decline, to 16179 yuan / m2, down 0.01% month on month; The average price of second-hand houses in Baicheng was 15987 yuan / m2, down 0.08% month on month.
the scale of financing and land acquisition decreased significantly year-on-year
The supply side also remained depressed. In January 2022, among the four first tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen and 16 second tier cities such as Hangzhou, Wuhan, Nanjing, Chongqing, Tianjin and Chengdu, the newly approved listing area of commercial housing was about 9.84 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of more than 40% and a month on month decrease of more than 50%.
Shanghai Shenyin Wanguo Securities Research Institute believes that the sales of real estate enterprises continued to be in the doldrums in January, which has fallen for six consecutive months. Only a few real estate enterprises such as Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) and Renheng land recorded positive growth. It is expected that the sales area of real estate will decrease by 9.1% year-on-year and the sales amount will decrease by 9.1% year-on-year in 2022.
\u3000\u3000 “From the perspective of the old cycle framework, the central bank has continuously stressed the maintenance of stability in real estate and the prevention and control of financial risks. The Politburo meeting and the central economic work meeting have set the tone to support reasonable housing demand, and the government’s warmth of maintaining stability has emerged; from the perspective of the new cycle framework, under the dual role of the industry’s capital difficulties and the deepening of supply side regulation, the clearing of the industry has accelerated the reduction of competition and promoted the industry to roll back from the past The transition from centralized degree improvement to centralized degree improvement of pattern optimization. ” Shanghai Shenyin Wanguo Securities Research Institute said.
From the financing side, the situation of “tight money” of real estate enterprises has not been improved. In January 2022, the issuance scale of credit bonds and overseas bonds of real estate enterprises decreased significantly year-on-year. Among them, the issuance scale of credit bonds was 30.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.85% compared with 64.408 billion yuan in January last year. In January, the issuance scale of overseas foreign debt of mainland real estate enterprises was 9.555 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 88% compared with 79.651 billion yuan in January last year.
The “tight money” of real estate enterprises is transmitted to the land market. According to the data of China Index Research Institute, affected by the Spring Festival, centralized land supply and various financial regulation policies, in January 2022, the investment intensity of 50 representative real estate enterprises decreased significantly year-on-year, the differentiation of land acquisition was significant, and the total land acquisition decreased by 88.8% year-on-year. From the perspective of layout area, real estate enterprises are keen to acquire land in the Yangtze River Delta, accounting for 69.3%.
Chen Wenjing, deputy director of the index division of China Index Research Institute, believes that the market is expected to adjust the channel throughout the year, and the scale may reach the bottom year-on-year in the first half of the year. It is expected that the national sales area will fall throughout the year, the average sales price will operate smoothly, and the real estate investment will grow at a low speed.
