The overall tourism data of the Spring Festival is relatively weak, which is mainly affected by factors such as repeated epidemics and local spring festival. According to the data of the Ministry of culture and tourism, 251 million Chinese tourists traveled during the seven-day Spring Festival holiday in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, and recovered to 73.9% of the same period of the Spring Festival holiday in 2019 according to comparable standards; China’s tourism revenue reached 289.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%, returning to 56.3% over the same period of the Spring Festival holiday in 2019.
The return policy of Spring Festival in 2022 tends to be flexible, and the return passenger flow increases significantly. On January 15, the Ministry of transport estimated that the Spring Festival transportation in 2022 would send 1.18 billion passengers nationwide, with an average of 29.5 million passengers per day, a year-on-year increase of + 35.6% in 2021, a year-on-year increase of – 20.3% in 2020 and – 60.4% in 2019 before the epidemic. Combined with the above tourism person time data, the growth of passenger flow mainly comes from the return passenger flow. Thanks to the relatively flexible return policy this year, except for the medium and high-risk areas and the Northern Winter Olympic region, the control in other areas is relatively normalized and loose.
Short distance local tourism is still the main body, and Hainan and Northeast China are hot. According to the data of the Ministry of culture and tourism, during the Spring Festival holiday in 2022, the proportion of intra provincial tourism and inter provincial tourism is 78.3% and 21.7% respectively. Under the control of the epidemic, short-range local tourism is still the main body. At the same time, the surface of some tourist destinations is bright, such as Hainan and Northeast China, which are relatively hot.
Tax exemption: under the preferential activities, the tax-free sales increased by more than 30%. According to the data of Hainan Provincial Department of Commerce, from January 30 to February 5, the total sales volume of 10 outlying island duty-free stores in the province was 1.983 billion yuan, an increase of more than 30% over the Spring Festival in 2021; Among them, the tax-free sales volume was 1.82 billion yuan; The number of duty-free shoppers was 277800, an increase of nearly 40% over the Spring Festival in 2021; The number of duty-free items purchased was 1651700.
Hotel: the local Chinese New Year and returning home for the Chinese New Year jointly promote the demand of the hotel, and the theme characteristic resort hotel is hot.
According to Ctrip platform data, as of February 5, hotel search popularity continued to rise during the Spring Festival, up 81% year-on-year. During the local Spring Festival, the orders of local hotels account for about 60%; After returning home for the Spring Festival, the order volume of rural hotels has more than doubled compared with that during the Spring Festival last year. The theme characteristic resort hotel is hot, and the reservation volume of destination cities such as Xinjiang, Hainan and Jilin is increasing. During the Spring Festival, theme resort hotels are popular. The orders of hot spring, parent-child and other theme hotels are expected to account for 55% and 12% of the total orders respectively.
Retail & Catering: local Chinese New Year drives offline consumption, and Winter Olympics brings booming ice and snow consumption. Offline consumption in some key provinces and cities recovered during the local Chinese New Year. For example, during the Spring Festival in Shanghai, the city’s offline consumption payment was 37.1 billion yuan, an increase of 28.6% over the same period of the lunar calendar in 2019, of which the offline consumption payment of catering industry was 3.92 billion yuan, an increase of 8.7% over 2021 and 9.7% over 2019. Driven by the Winter Olympics, the enthusiasm for ice and snow consumption is high. According to Alibaba’s Spring Festival consumption trend report in the year of the tiger, from New Year’s Eve to the fourth day of the first month, tmall ski equipment increased by more than 180% year-on-year, and ice sports categories increased by more than 300% year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: during the Spring Festival, the overall tourism consumption is weak. During the local Spring Festival, the hotel demand is stable. Maintain the recommended Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , and focus on Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) and hotel leader Huazhu group-s after the integration of Junlan resort hotel; Continue to recommend tax-free faucets China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ; In the tourism sector, Atlantis, the leading target of Sanya Resort Hotel, and Fosun tourism culture benefiting from ice and snow tourism are recommended, focusing on the Yangtze River Delta Resort and leisure scenic spot Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , the leading performing arts Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , the target of ice and snow tourism Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) , the marine theme park Haichang marine park, and Gubei water town, which may benefit from the Winter Olympics and the local spring festival in Beijing, Focus on China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) .
Risk tips: repeated epidemics, less than expected economic recovery, reduced consumption desire, reduced travel enthusiasm, etc.
