Market review:
From January 24 to January 28, the social service sector (Shenwan) fell by 4.28%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 4.57%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 5.00%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell by 5.24%. The social service sector 01.24-01.28 outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.29 percentage points, ranking 13th among the weekly increases and decreases of Shenwan’s 35 primary sub industries.
Core view:
During the Spring Festival, major duty-free operators seized the opportunity of the spring festival tourism peak and actively launched preferential activities + upgraded their service quality. The duty-free industry flourished and continued to help achieve the goal of 100 billion yuan.
For the Spring Festival holiday, China duty free, Sanya sea travel duty-free City, Haikong global boutique duty-free City, China Service Sanya International duty-free shopping park and Shenzhen duty-free Haikou Mission Hills duty-free city have launched discount packages. Among them, the 600 yuan coupon launched by China free includes 100 yuan high-quality non threshold voucher, 50 yuan Xianghua non threshold voucher and full reduction voucher. It has rich preferential modes and types of preferential products, and the preferential intensity is large. Meanwhile, during the Spring Festival, Hainan’s 10 outlying island duty-free stores continuously enriched the consumption scene of the outlying island duty-free new year by introducing limited new products in the year of the tiger and flash shopping of star items. In order to cope with the restriction of epidemic prevention and control, Hainan also launched online “Spring Festival special area”, including Hainan health code, epidemic situation bulletin, electronic certificates and other service modules. WeChat, Alipay’s small programs and Hai Yi APP have “Spring Festival special area”, facilitated and promoted the one-stop shopping and tourism demand of foreign tourists in Hainan during the Spring Festival. We believe that during the Spring Festival, major duty-free operators have made great efforts to create new year consumption scenes, launch concessions and introduce products, and continuously improve their service quality. At the same time, Hainan has continuously designed and launched convenient and fast online platforms for epidemic prevention and control, so as to promote the more rapid development of tax-free industries on outlying islands, It is expected to form a continuous boost to the tax-free industry in Hainan to achieve the sales target of 100 billion.
Company announcement and industry information:
Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) : the company expects the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 to be 45 million yuan to 65 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses to be 8 million yuan to 12 million yuan; Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) : it is estimated that in 2021, the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be 258 million yuan to 358 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses will be 208 million yuan to 308 million yuan, which will turn loss into profit compared with the same period of last year.
Investment suggestions:
Duty free industry: we are optimistic about the relatively clear recovery trend of the duty-free industry supported by the recovery of passenger flow. Related targets are China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) which is expected to show a recovery in revenue and profit after the recovery of passenger flow.
Hotel Industry: the upgrading of industry structure and chain trend are obvious, the brand, scale and management advantages of leading hotel groups are obvious, and there is good growth space in the future. Related targets include leading enterprises Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , and Huazhu group.
Catering and Tourism: the recovery of the industry under the epidemic is under short-term pressure, and the trend of industry chain is obvious. Pay attention to the expansion and business performance of leading catering enterprises. The relevant targets include seabed fishing, sipping and sipping.
Risk tips:
Repeated epidemic impact; Macroeconomic fluctuations; Policy supervision risk.
