Adjust and provide good opportunities for layout, and actively grasp the comfortable window period of medicine. In January 2022, the pharmaceutical and biological industry fell by 14.9%, and the yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell by 7.6% in the same period. The pharmaceutical sector lost about 7.3% to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, ranking 27th in 28 sub industries. The sub sectors of chemical pharmacy, biological products, medical devices, pharmaceutical commerce, traditional Chinese medicine and medical services all fell, of which the sub sector of medical services fell the most, at 18.60%; The pharmaceutical business sub sector had the smallest decline, at 11.23%.
Affected by the landing of growth hormone centralized purchase documents of Guangdong alliance and the decline of covid-19 thematic investment, the overall adjustment of the pharmaceutical sector was strong in January. At present, the premium rate of the pharmaceutical sector relative to all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) has been at the lowest point since 2015. After the valuation digestion, the track leader gradually enters the adaptation range. In terms of specific investment suggestions, we still maintain the following views: actively grasp the dilemma reversal of the undervalued sector, such as API, chain pharmacies, traditional Chinese medicine, etc; Bargain hunting layout of high prosperity tracks with rapid growth of performance and no risk of fundamentals, such as cro / cdmo, upstream of life sciences, medical services, etc.
The 14th five year plan for the development of pharmaceutical industry was released, with innovation driven and industrial chain development as the key words. On January 30, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the national development and Reform Commission and other nine departments jointly issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of pharmaceutical industry, which put forward systematic guidance for the development of pharmaceutical industry in the next five years. The plan points out that under the background of a new round of technological change and the changing situation of the global pharmaceutical industry, China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) industry still has shortcomings in technological innovation and industrial chain supply chain. Therefore, it focuses on innovation driven and industrial chain development, including: accelerating product innovation and industrialization technology breakthrough, and promoting the industrialization and application of innovative drugs and high-end medical devices; Enhance the stability and competitiveness of the industrial chain, supplement the short board of the industrial chain, but also enhance the advantages of the industrial chain and create the integrated advantage of “API + Preparation”; The supply guarantee system of pharmaceutical equipment was further improved and the internationalization level was comprehensively improved. The plan also puts forward specific objectives for the development of the pharmaceutical industry during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and further strengthens the encouragement for innovation and R & D: 1) the average annual growth rate of the operating revenue and total profit of the pharmaceutical industry remains above 8%, the proportion of added value in the whole industry increases to about 5%, and the concentration of leading enterprises in the industry further improves. 2) The R & D investment of the whole industry has increased by more than 10% annually; By 2025, the proportion of new sales of innovative products in the increment of operating revenue of the whole industry will further increase. As a programmatic document for the development of pharmaceutical industry in the next five years, R & D innovation and industrial chain upgrading have become a deterministic trend. 1) innovative drugs and devices are booming, including innovative drug leaders and biotech, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Xinda biology, Baiji Shenzhou, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) ; Medical device leader Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , innovative device xianruida medical, Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) , Aohua endoscopy, Xianjian technology, minimally invasive Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and so on; 2) Upstream demand explosion brought by new technologies and new therapies, including scientific research reagents Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Jenkem Technology Co.Ltd(688356) , Shanghai Aladdin Biochemical Technology Co.Ltd(688179) , Shanghai Titan Scientific Co.Ltd(688133) ; Cro enterprises Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) ; 3) China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) the globalization trend of high-end manufacturing in the whole industrial chain is optimistic about cdmo / CMO leading pharmaceutical and Ming biology, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , and rapidly expanding Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) ; Be optimistic about characteristic APIs Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) , etc.
In the long run, looking forward to 2022, we are optimistic about “innovation frontier, made in China and consumption upgrading”, and pay close attention to the leading white horse + specialization and innovation. Under the basic construction of the review and approval and centralized purchase negotiation policies, the reform of the payment system is accelerated, and the policy closed loop is expected to be formed.
Deepen industrial upgrading, strengthen industrial chain thinking, be optimistic about the upgrading of innovation Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain and manufacturing industry, and pay attention to the technological iteration and expansion of consumption.
[innovation frontier]: innovation is still the most important direction. In 2022, more attention will be paid to innovation and industrial chain layout.
1) upstream industrial chain services: optimistic about the upstream demand explosion brought by new technologies and new therapies, including scientific research reagents Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Jenkem Technology Co.Ltd(688356) , Shanghai Aladdin Biochemical Technology Co.Ltd(688179) , Shanghai Titan Scientific Co.Ltd(688133) ; Cro enterprises Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) ; Model animals: Nanmo biology, jijiyaokang, baiaosaitu, etc. 2) Terminal products and technological innovation: be optimistic about the leader of innovative drugs and biotech, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Xinda biology, Baiji Shenzhou, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) , Haisco Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002653) ; Innovative instruments include xianruida medical, Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) , Aohua endoscopy, Xianjian technology, minimally invasive Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , etc.
[made in China]: as a traditional manufacturing power, with the deepening of medical reform, China has continuously strengthened the logic of high-end pharmaceutical manufacturing, and is optimistic about global advantages and industrial upgrading. 1) Cdmo / CMO: the double strong track combining innovative service and manufacturing advantages is still in the upswing. In 2022, we focus on performance acceleration and event catalysis. We are optimistic about leading Yaoming biology, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , and rapidly expanding Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) . 2) Characteristic API:
The inflection point is established and the global competitive advantage is clear. In 2022, we are optimistic about Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) based on performance restoration and industrial upgrading. 3) Equipment and consumables: the acceleration of domestic substitution driven by innovation provides a good opportunity for the epidemic. We are optimistic about the leader Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , and pay attention to consumables service providers Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) , Shenzhen Changhong Technology Co.Ltd(300151) , Guangzhou Jet Bio-Filtration Co.Ltd(688026) ; Optimistic about production equipment enterprises Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Sensong international, Maider Medical Industry Equipment Co.Ltd(688310) .
[consumption upgrading]: the expansion of medical services is optimistic about Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , haijiya medical treatment and Jinxin reproduction; The technological innovation and demand growth of domestic vaccines are optimistic about Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) ; And chain pharmacies, brand traditional Chinese medicine, etc.
Omicron became the mainstream strain, and enhanced vaccination was still effective. Omicron has spread rapidly since it was found. According to the data of who, Omicron has become the main strain, accounting for more than 90% in most countries.
According to the research published by the national infectious diseases Medical Center (Huashan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University) on emerging microbes & infections, the virus may still maintain a certain level of transmission after the third injection, but it will improve the group’s protection against Omicron and still have the potential to significantly reduce the proportion of severe cases.
Considering that the influenza trend of covid-19 epidemic is becoming more and more obvious, it is suggested to pay attention to covid-19 vaccine related development enterprises, including Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) – u, Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) . In the long run, each vaccine head enterprise has a large amount of heavy varieties or is about to go on the market. Combined with the improvement of vaccination awareness under covid-19 epidemic, we expect that the vaccination rate of large varieties is expected to continue to increase and gradually approach the level of developed countries. The class II vaccine industry is expected to achieve a compound growth of 20% – 30% in recent 3-5 years. It is recommended that Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) , Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) 。
Key recommendations in February: Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Yaoming biology, Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(605116) .
In January, the average decline of key recommendations of Sino Thai medicine was 15.43%, which was 0.49% lower than that of the pharmaceutical industry, including Yaoming Biology – 17.94%, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) – 11.62%, Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) – 23.68%, Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) – 15.23%, Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) – 25.18%, Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) – 16.30%, Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) – 19.19%, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) – 11.72%, Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) – 13.86%, Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) – 21.79%, Haisco Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002653) – 15.10%, Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) – 0.95%, Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) – 5.46%, Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) – 18.03% Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(605116) -3.45%。
Industry hot spots: (1) implementation of centralized collection scheme for growth hormone and blood products; (2) Five Chinese pharmaceutical companies were shortlisted in the MPP MSD oral covid-19 drug imitation agreement list
Market dynamics: in January 2022, the pharmaceutical and biological industry fell by 14.9%, the yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell by 7.6% in the same period, and the pharmaceutical sector lost about 7.3% to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, ranking 27th in 28 sub industries. This month, the sub sectors of chemical pharmacy, biological products, medical devices, pharmaceutical commerce, traditional Chinese medicine and medical services all fell, with the largest decline of 18.60% in the sub sector of medical services; The pharmaceutical business sub sector had the smallest decline, at 11.23%. Based on the 2022 profit forecast valuation, the current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 26.49 times PE, the P / E ratio of all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) is about 20.44 times, and the premium rate of the pharmaceutical sector relative to all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) is 29.59%. Calculated by TTM valuation method, the current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 29 times PE, which is lower than the historical average (37 times PE), and the premium rate relative to all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) is 34%.
Risk warning: the risk of policy disturbance, drug quality problems, and the risk of delayed information or untimely update of the public data used in the research report.
