Abstract
The commencement of photovoltaic modules is acceptable, and we will continue to pay attention to the production capacity launch progress
Last week, the prices of 2mm and 3.2mm photovoltaic coated glass were 19.2 and 25 yuan / m2 respectively, unchanged month on month. Manufacturers' inventory days were 21.32 days, down 7.85% from last week. Recently, the price of raw materials has risen, the commencement of component end is OK, and the demand is still supported; In 21 years, 12 kV was greatly connected to the grid, and the annual installed capacity reached 53gw. In the medium and long term, if the price of upstream raw materials falls in the future and driven by policies, the demand for photovoltaic installation is expected to continue to improve in 22 / 23 years. On the supply side, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass last week was 41210 tons, down 1.55% month on month. The production plan of photovoltaic glass in 22 years is relatively large, and part of the promotion is general. We believe that the production capacity in 22 years still needs to be observed. Generally speaking, we believe that the average profit of the whole industry is currently or still at the bottom range, and some small kilns are unprofitable under the current price level. We judge that the downward space of price is limited. If the demand accelerates to improve in the future, the price of photovoltaic glass is still expected to rise periodically, and we continue to be optimistic about the logic of simultaneous rise in volume and price of leading companies in the future.
The trading of float glass was good during the week, and the demand for 22q2 is expected to reach a small peak. Last week, the average price of float glass in China increased by 1.58% month on month, with traders mainly preparing goods and limited rigid demand. Last week, the manufacturer's inventory was 35.1 million weight boxes, a month on month decrease of 480000 weight boxes, and the production capacity was flat during the week. Last week, the price rise of soda ash at the cost side was limited, the price of the original film increased slightly, and the profit of float glass rebounded. We believe that the marginal demand of real estate is expected to rebound in the first half of this year, and if the marginal demand of real estate is still expected to rebound in the first half of this year.
Continue to recommend the photovoltaic glass leader. The float glass leader has medium and long-term investment value, and the demand of the photovoltaic industry is expected to improve marginally. The glass leader has significant cost advantages and high growth at the production end. It is recommended to [ Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ] (jointly cover with Dianxin), [Xinyi solar energy], and the corner of dilemma is recommended to [ Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) ]. The price and profit of float glass are still going down in the short term, but the share price of float glass leader has been greatly adjusted. Considering the profit and valuation of its float business in equilibrium and the additional growth brought by new businesses such as photovoltaic, we believe that the current float glass leader has good medium and long-term investment value, and continue to recommend [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ], [Xinyi Glass], [ Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ]; From the perspective of new glass materials, UTG original film breaks through the foreign monopoly, and the production and sales are expected to grow rapidly after domestic substitution. It continues to recommend [ Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ]. Under the logic of domestic substitution of medicinal glass, it is recommended to recommend the head enterprise of China borosilicate medicinal glass [ Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) ].
Risk tip: the general rise of raw materials has delayed the downstream demand for real estate, photovoltaic and other products beyond expectations; Float production capacity and capacity utilization increased more than expected.
