Key investment points
[the installed capacity of China’s offshore wind power in 2021 increased by 452% year-on-year] on January 28, the National Energy Administration announced the construction and operation of wind power in 2021. In 2021, the newly added installed capacity of wind power in China was 47.57gw, a year-on-year decrease of 34%. Among them, offshore wind power has sprung up, with an annual installed capacity of 16.90gw, a year-on-year increase of 452%. The installed capacity of onshore wind power increased by 30.67gw, a year-on-year decrease of 55%. In 2021, the average utilization rate of wind power in China was 96.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year.
[important announcement] Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) : it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.8-2.4 billion yuan in 2021 and 1.27-1.87 billion yuan in 2021q4, with a month on month increase of 186% – 321%, turning losses into profits year on year. Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) : the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.8-5.5 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 368% – 437%. Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) : the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 280-290 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 131% – 139%. Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) : the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 390-420 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 7142% – 7699%. Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) : the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.73-3.06 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 65% – 85%. Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) : the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 5.6-5.8 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 437% – 456%. Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) : the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.8-4.2 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 249% – 286%.
According to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on January 28, the mainstream quotation of electrolytic cobalt in China was 497000-501000 yuan / ton, with the average price falling by 10000 yuan / ton compared with last week. Cobalt sulfate was reported at 107500-108500 yuan / ton, with the average price rising by 35000 yuan / ton compared with last week. Co3O4 was reported at 406-41000 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week. In terms of cobalt, recently, the price of electric cobalt has fallen, the reserve of Chinese electrolytic cobalt downstream enterprises has been completed, and the demand has weakened recently. The superposition of the decline of futures has an impact on market sentiment, and the price has fallen under the joint action of demand and sentiment. Cobalt salt prices jumped slightly this week. During the Spring Festival, both supply and demand will be reduced due to holidays and maintenance, and the price of cobalt salt will remain stable. [lithium] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on January 28, the quotation of metal lithium was 1.9-1.96 million yuan / ton, with the average price rising by 65000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The mainstream price of battery grade lithium carbonate was reported at 368000-368000 yuan / ton, and the average price increased by 15000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The quotation of battery grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particle) is 294000-303000 yuan / ton, with the average price rising by 2000 yuan / ton compared with last week. On the supply side, after the Spring Festival, the supply of lithium carbonate market will rise slightly with the gradual resumption of work of lithium salt enterprises. On the demand side, the 3C digital market tends to be stable. In terms of power, with the increasing support of the new energy vehicle market, the demand for ternary and iron lithium batteries and materials will continue to rise, and the lithium carbonate gap is still. It is expected that the transaction price after the festival may exceed 400000 yuan / ton. [ternary material] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on January 28, the mainstream price of ternary material (type 523) was 275000-284000 yuan / ton, and the average price increased by 7500 yuan / ton compared with last week. The quotation of ternary precursor (type 523) is 133000-135000 yuan / ton, and the average price is 35000 yuan / ton higher than last week. The price of precursor rises with the price of cobalt salt and nickel salt. Ternary materials continue to rise with the price of precursors and lithium salts. [lithium iron phosphate cathode] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on January 28, the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 129000-134000 yuan / ton, and the average price increased by 7000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price of lithium iron phosphate (energy storage type) is 124000-128000 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 7000 yuan / ton compared with last week. At present, the lithium salt shortage in the lithium iron phosphate industry continues. Some lithium iron enterprises still rush to buy near the raw material end, and the cost of lithium iron rises. At present, the mainstream quotation has exceeded 130000 yuan / ton. On the demand side, at present, the downstream terminals have completed the pre holiday goods preparation. After superposition, the terminal demand in February is generally weaker than that in January, and the overall transaction is light. The price of lithium iron phosphate is expected to remain stable in the future. Key recommendations: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) . It is recommended to pay active attention to: Shandong Kaisheng New Materials Co.Ltd(301069) , Anhui Estone Materials Technology Co.Ltd(688733) , Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) .
[the upstream price rises before the Spring Festival and the industrial chain continues to play games] according to pvinfolink data, on January 26, the mainstream quotation of [silicon material] polysilicon compact was 238000 yuan / ton, with the average price rising by 1.7% compared with last week. In terms of supply, the global silicon production increased month on month, but the increase is still limited. Although there is a certain scale of silicon inventory level at the beginning of the period, the supply capacity is still difficult compared with the increase of production capacity on the demand side. [silicon chip] the mainstream quotation of single crystal silicon chip 166mm is 5.150 yuan / PC, and the average price is the same as last week. The mainstream quotation of 182mm monocrystalline silicon wafer is 6.150 yuan / PC, and the average price is the same as that of last week. The mainstream quotation of 210mm monocrystalline silicon wafer is 8.100 yuan / PC, and the average price is the same as that of last week. [cell] the mainstream quotation of 166mm single crystal perc cell is 1.080 yuan / W, and the average price is the same as last week. The mainstream quotation of 182mm single crystal perc battery is 1.100 yuan / W, and the average price is the same as last week. The mainstream quotation of 210mm single crystal perc battery is 1.080 yuan / W, and the average price is 1.9% higher than that of last week.
[component] the mainstream quotation of 365-375 / 440-450w single crystal perc component is 1.850 yuan / W, and the average price is the same as last week. The mainstream quotation of 182mm single crystal perc module is 1.880 yuan / W, and the average price is the same as that of last week. The continuous rise in the prices of the middle and upper reaches of the supply chain has put some pressure on the component end. A few manufacturers expect the spot price to rise by about 2-3 cents per watt after the Spring Festival. However, it is still necessary to consider the post Festival demand and terminal acceptance. [photovoltaic glass] the mainstream price of 3.2mm coating is 25.0 yuan / m2, and the average price is the same as that of last week. The mainstream quotation of 2.0mm coating is 19.2 yuan / m2, and the average price is the same as last week. Key recommendations: Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) . It is recommended to pay active attention to: Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) , Chengdu Guibao Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300019) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) .
Risk tip: the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, the sharp fluctuation of raw material prices affects the industry demand, and other unexpected explosion risks.
