brief description of disk
On the first trading day of the year of the tiger, A-Shares opened higher and walked higher, and the Shanghai index recovered 3400 points. On the disk, mining, petroleum, cement and building materials, coal, iron and steel, engineering construction, chemical fertilizer, energy metals, small metals, motors, nonferrous metals, batteries, photovoltaic, chemical fertilizer, automobiles and other industries led the increase; Decoration, education, tourism and hotels, cultural media, agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishing, real estate, games and other industries led the decline. In terms of subject stocks, combustible ice, oil and gas equipment and services, blade batteries, shale gas, sodium ion batteries, IGBT concept, lithium extraction from Salt Lake, automobile chips, rare earth permanent magnets, hit batteries, natural gas, phosphorus chemical industry, etc. led the rise, while covid-19 drugs, pork concept, longevity medicine, chicken concept, online tourism, aquaculture, prefabricated vegetable concept, film and television concept led the decline.
message plane
post holiday capital Outlook: liquidity is expected to remain abundant
Although the reverse repo funds of the people’s Bank of China will be returned naturally after the Spring Festival, the large amount of cash returned after the festival will also significantly increase the total liquidity of the banking system. Superimposed on the large amount of treasury bonds due in the first week after the festival, it will also increase a certain amount of liquidity. Some analysts pointed out that, on the whole, if it is more common after the Spring Festival over the years, the market capital after the festival will be more relaxed and the liquidity supply will be relatively more than that before the festival.
62! Fund companies pushed new products after the festival!
Although affected by the market shock at the beginning of 2022, a total of 148 new funds were established in January, with a raising scale of only 118.82 billion yuan. A wave of “good start” was somewhat muted. However, it did not affect the enthusiasm of fund companies to actively layout and develop. According to the data, the enthusiasm of fund companies to issue new funds has not decreased. After the Spring Festival, more than 60 new funds have been announced to be issued. On the first trading day of the year of the tiger, there will be “nine arrows at the same time”.
national development and Reform Commission: moderately advance infrastructure investment
Carry out infrastructure investment moderately ahead of schedule and strive to form more physical workload in the first quarter. We will implement policies and measures to boost bulk consumption such as automobiles and household appliances. We will improve the service quality of rural tourism, health care for the elderly and characteristic home stay, and enrich the supply of peripheral tourism, suburban tourism and ice and snow tourism products. Promote the combination of commodity consumption and service consumption, and expand new consumption such as information consumption and green consumption. Accelerate the penetration of the county’s rural e-commerce system and express logistics distribution system.
Jufeng view
Medium term strategy:
Jufeng investment adviser believes that the liquidity at the macro level has been gradually improved, and the central bank has continuously cut reserve requirements and interest rates to release liquidity, indicating that the policy bottom has appeared; The medium-term market is expected to rise, but the construction of the market bottom is more complex and there is a time lag between the market bottom and the policy bottom. We should be more patient.
Pre market judgment: the market has switched to the annual report market. In the short term, the valuation repair market of blue chips has a safer margin than the valuation improvement of growth stocks. During the Spring Festival, the peripheral markets generally rose, the Hong Kong market rose by more than 4%, and the international oil price rose by more than 5%. It is expected that the A-share market will open significantly higher on the first trading day of the year of the tiger, and then continue to shock and bottom. The energy sector is expected to strengthen.
In fact, the A-share index opened higher in the morning, but the market differentiation was obvious. Differentiation is reflected in two aspects: first, the relatively strong concept of pork before the festival, prefabricated dishes, covid-19 drugs and other sectors fell sharply. Meanwhile, oil, coal, lithium batteries, photovoltaic and other energy sectors rose sharply, and cyclical stocks such as steel, cement, nonferrous metals and chemical fertilizers rebounded simultaneously. Second, heavyweights led the rebound on the disk, while small and medium cap stocks showed a sluggish performance. On the time-sharing chart of Shanghai stock index and gem index, heavyweights and small cap stocks formed a huge scissors gap after opening for 10 minutes. Then heavyweights Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) on GEM plunged sharply, and the increase of gem index narrowed from 2.7% to less than 1%. If the market is still the situation that heavyweights protect the market and small and medium-sized stocks generally fall before the Spring Festival, the rebound is likely to have twists and turns.
Investment suggestions:
Before the Spring Festival, A-Shares were corrected continuously, and the overvalued track stocks and growth stocks were significantly adjusted. The undervalued blue chips reflected a certain defensive nature. The make-up decline of blue chips in the last week before the festival was a signal of accelerating bottom building. After spring, the market liquidity will improve, and the spring offensive will be officially launched. It is suggested to allocate four sectors: state-owned assets reform, high annual growth, securities companies and oversold new shares.
