brief description of disk
On the first trading day of the year of the tiger, A-Shares differentiated, and the Shanghai index rebounded and recovered 3400 points; The growth enterprise market opened high and went low, continuing the adjustment trend. On the disk, engineering consulting services, mining, engineering construction, cement and building materials, steel, oil, coal, chemical fertilizer, energy metals, small metals, insurance, nonferrous metals, batteries, photovoltaic, chemical fertilizer, automobile, banking and other industries led the increase; Wind power equipment, education, cultural media, communication services and other industries led the decline. In terms of one belt, one road is the largest in the market, including fuel, underground, water and gas, assembly, water, phosphorus, natural gas, and other areas. COVID-19 drugs, laser radar, longevity medicine, cloud games and film concepts are among the top 10.
hot sector
The oil industry (covering oil and gas equipment, mining and natural gas sectors) strengthened: Haimo Technologies Group Corp(300084) 20% limit, Sino Geophysical Co.Ltd(300191) , Tong Petrotech Corp(300164) rose by more than 10%, Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) , Xinjiang Beiken Energy Engineering Co.Ltd(002828) , China Petroleum Engineering Corporation(600339) , China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Geo-Jade Petroleum Corporation(600759) sector, Landocean Energy Services Co.Ltd(300157) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) , Xinjiang Zhundong Petroleum Technology Co.Ltd(002207) , Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , Sinopec Shandong Taishan Pectroleum Co.Ltd(000554) rose by more than 6%. On the news side, during the Spring Festival holiday, crude oil prices hit a new high in nearly eight years.
The strength of the oil sector led to the strength of coal: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) rose by nearly 7%, followed by Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , and steel, nonferrous metals and other sectors rebounded simultaneously. The steel sector continued to rise in the afternoon, Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) limit, Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) , Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) rose by more than 6%.
Cement building materials rose sharply: Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Yunnan Bowin Technology Industry Co.Ltd(600883) limit, Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Beijing Hanjian Heshan Pipeline Co.Ltd(603616) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , Sichuan Shuangma Cement Co.Ltd(000935) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) , Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) etc. rose by more than 5%.
Engineering consulting services rose by 8%: Shenzhen Institute Of Building Research Co.Ltd(300675) , Hualan Group Co.Ltd(301027) , Henan Provincial Communications Planning & Design Institute Co.Ltd(300732) , Jsti Group(300284) 20% limit, construction research design, Zhubo Design Co.Ltd(300564) more than 10%, and China Haisum Engineering Co.Ltd(002116) , Anhui Transport Consulting & Design Institute Co.Ltd(603357) , Guizhou Transportation Planning Survey&Design Academe Co.Ltd(603458) , Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) limit. On the news, the national development and Reform Commission said it would moderately advance infrastructure investment to stimulate the strength of relevant sectors. In the afternoon, the rise of engineering construction sector expanded to 5%: Xinjiang Beixin Road & Bridge Group Co.Ltd(002307) , Tengda Construction Group Co.Ltd(600512) , Chongqing Construction Engineering Group Co.Ltd(600939) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , Hongrun Construction Group Co.Ltd(002062) , Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Shanghai Geoharbour Construction Group Co.Ltd(605598) , Huitong group, Xinjiang Communications Construction Group Co.Ltd(002941) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , Zhejiang construction and other more than 10 shares rose by the limit.
message plane
post holiday capital Outlook: liquidity is expected to remain abundant
Although the reverse repo funds of the people’s Bank of China will be returned naturally after the Spring Festival, the large amount of cash returned after the festival will also significantly increase the total liquidity of the banking system. Superimposed on the large amount of treasury bonds due in the first week after the festival, it will also increase a certain amount of liquidity. Some analysts pointed out that, on the whole, if it is more common after the Spring Festival over the years, the market capital after the festival will be more relaxed and the liquidity supply will be relatively more than that before the festival.
62 only! Fund companies pushed new products after the festival!
Although affected by the market shock at the beginning of 2022, a total of 148 new funds were established in January, with a raising scale of only 118.82 billion yuan. A wave of “good start” was somewhat muted. However, it did not affect the enthusiasm of fund companies to actively layout and develop. According to the data, the enthusiasm of fund companies to issue new funds has not decreased. After the Spring Festival, more than 60 new funds have been announced to be issued. On the first trading day of the year of the tiger, there will be “nine arrows at the same time”.
national development and Reform Commission: moderately advance infrastructure investment
Carry out infrastructure investment moderately ahead of schedule and strive to form more physical workload in the first quarter. We will implement policies and measures to boost bulk consumption such as automobiles and household appliances. We will improve the service quality of rural tourism, health care for the elderly and characteristic home stay, and enrich the supply of peripheral tourism, suburban tourism and ice and snow tourism products. Promote the combination of commodity consumption and service consumption, and expand new consumption such as information consumption and green consumption. Accelerate the penetration of the county’s rural e-commerce system and express logistics distribution system.
Jufeng view
Medium term strategy:
Jufeng investment adviser believes that the liquidity at the macro level has been gradually improved, and the central bank has continuously cut reserve requirements and interest rates to release liquidity, indicating that the policy bottom has appeared; The medium-term market is expected to rise, but the construction of the market bottom is more complex and there is a time lag between the market bottom and the policy bottom. We should be more patient.
pre market judgment: the market has switched to the annual report market. In the short term, the valuation repair market of blue chips is more safe than the valuation improvement of growth stocks. During the Spring Festival, the peripheral markets generally rose, the Hong Kong market rose by more than 4%, and the international oil price rose by more than 5%. It is expected that the A-share market will open significantly higher on the first trading day of the year of the tiger, and then continue to shock and bottom. The energy sector is expected to strengthen.
In fact, the A-share index opened higher in the morning, but the market differentiation was obvious. Differentiation is reflected in two aspects: first, the relatively strong concept of pork before the festival, prefabricated dishes, covid-19 drugs and other sectors fell sharply. Meanwhile, oil, coal, lithium batteries, photovoltaic and other energy sectors rose sharply, and cyclical stocks such as steel, cement, nonferrous metals and chemical fertilizers rebounded simultaneously. Second, heavyweights led the rebound on the disk, while small and medium cap stocks showed a sluggish performance. On the time-sharing chart of Shanghai stock index and gem index, heavyweights and small cap stocks formed a huge scissors gap after opening for 10 minutes. Then heavyweights Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) on GEM plunged sharply, and the increase of gem index narrowed from 2.7% to less than 1%.
In the afternoon, A-Shares continued to differentiate, and the rise of infrastructure related sectors expanded, surpassing resource stocks and becoming a new leading sector in the market. In addition, banking, insurance and other financial stocks rose relay, and the rise of the Shanghai index expanded. The Shenzhen market is relatively flat. The gem index continued to fall due to diving such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) and once turned down. In addition, the sector rotation phenomenon is obvious, and the persistence of hot sector is not strong. If the market is still the situation that heavyweights protect the market and small and medium-sized stocks generally fall before the Spring Festival, the rebound is likely to have twists and turns.
Investment suggestions:
Before the Spring Festival, A-Shares were corrected continuously, and the overvalued track stocks and growth stocks were significantly adjusted. The undervalued blue chips reflected a certain defensive nature. The make-up decline of blue chips in the last week before the festival was a signal of accelerating bottom building. After the Spring Festival, the market liquidity will be improved, and the spring offensive will be officially launched. From the first trading day of the year of the tiger, the market has not yet come out of the adjustment of overvalued stocks, and undervalued blue chips are still sought after. It is suggested to allocate four sectors: state-owned assets reform, high annual growth, securities companies and oversold new shares.
