Commentary
According to our recent communication with the bank, we update the "good start" situation as follows:
\u3000\u30001。 Banks tend to "invest early and benefit early". Bank loans have obvious seasonality, accounting for about 40% in the first quarter and only about 15% in the fourth quarter. Banks for "early delivery and early benefit"
Considering, the loan project is more likely to be launched at the beginning of the new year than at the end of the year. According to our communication with banks, after the LPR was lowered twice in December last year and January this year, some banks are more inclined to put in loans in advance in the downward cycle of interest rates. Most banks plan to put in loans this year and the growth rate is basically stable compared with last year.
\u3000\u30002。 There is still differentiation among banks. Since September 2021, the lending of large banks has been relatively stable, while the growth rate of loans of small and medium-sized banks has declined, which is mainly affected by the weakening financing demand of the real economy and the reduction of risk appetite related to real estate. According to our communication with banks, some large state-owned banks and Jiangsu and Zhejiang regional banks put in loans faster at the beginning of the year than in previous years due to sufficient project reserves, but some banks are more cautious in terms of price and risk preference.
\u3000\u30003。 At the beginning of the year, the investment was mainly for the public. The structure of new loans is also seasonal. Among the new loans in January / first quarter of the past three years, the medium and long-term public ratio is about 50% / 51%, significantly exceeding 42% of the annual average. The medium and long-term project loans tend to be released at the beginning of the year. According to our exchanges with banks, infrastructure, green and high-tech manufacturing are the main investment areas in the launch at the beginning of this year.
\u3000\u30004。 Mortgage financing conditions may continue to improve. The mortgage lending cycle of the research institute has also been shortened for two consecutive months. According to our communication with banks, considering that the quality of mortgage assets is still good at present, some banks still regard mortgage as one of the priorities of this year on the premise of meeting the requirements of real estate concentration. On the other hand, the investment of development loans is still restricted by the bank's risk appetite.
\u3000\u30005。 On the whole, credit can still achieve a "good start". In January 2021, the new loan was 3.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 240 / 350 billion yuan compared with 2020 / 2019, and the base is not low. On the whole, we still preliminarily expect that the scale of new loans in January can achieve a "good start" of 3-4 trillion yuan. On January 18, the 2021 Financial Statistics Press Conference held by the State Council Information Office mentioned "maintaining total stability and avoiding credit collapse". We believe that it is necessary to maintain stable credit growth under the guidance of the "stable growth" policy. If the actual data is lower than expected, it shows the urgency of policy overweight.
Valuation and recommendations
We continue to be optimistic about the "good fortune" of banking stocks throughout the year, reiterate our recommendation of China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) benefiting from wealth management opportunities, pay attention to Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) and other regional leading targets, benefit from Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) expected improvement in housing related exposure, and BOC Hong Kong with good interest rate increase overseas.
Risk
The economic growth rate fell faster than expected; Risk diffusion in the real estate industry.
