Focus
1) the position data of the fund in the fourth quarter of 2021 has been disclosed, and the position proportion of 2021q4 fund bank shares is 2.91%, which continues to decline slightly compared with Q3.
2) the Fund Industry Association announced the holding scale of public funds of fund consignment institutions in the fourth quarter of 2021. In the holding scale of stocks + mixed public funds, banking channels continue to dominate, and the total scale of national banks + urban rural commercial banks + foreign banks accounts for 58.6%.
3) at present, a total of 19 listed banks have disclosed the performance express in 2021. The overall growth rate of revenue and profit is up month on month, and the non-performing and provision indicators continue to improve.
Industry and company dynamics
1) on January 24, the CBRC held a 2022 working meeting, pointing out that it is of great significance to ensure the stability of the overall economic and financial situation. 2) On January 24, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the guiding opinions on regulating the management of price adjustment in the banking service market. 3) On January 29, the central bank and the safe issued the notice on matters related to overseas loan business of banking financial institutions. 4) Bank Of China Limited(601988) completed the issuance of 30 billion yuan of 10-year fixed interest rate secondary capital bonds with a coupon rate of 3.25%; Zhejiang Shaoxing Ruifeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601528) Zhao yuankuan’s qualification as chairman has been approved by the CBRC; The wholly-owned subsidiary Schroder Bank of communications Financial Management Co., Ltd. was approved to open.
Data tracking
In the week before the Spring Festival (from January 24 to January 28), the A-share bank index fell by 3.47%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.04 percentage points, and the rise and fall of the sector ranked 8 / 30, among which Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) (- 0.85%), Bank Of China Limited(601988) (- 0.96%) and Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) (- 1.31%) fell slightly.
Open market operation: from January 24 to January 30, the central bank conducted a total of 1100 billion yuan of reverse repurchase in the open market, a total of 500 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, and a full caliber net investment of 600 billion yuan in the open market. A week after the festival, 900 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will expire.
Shibor: from January 24 to January 30 Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) , the trend of inter-bank lending rate rose as a whole. The overnight Shibor interest rate rose by 9bp to 2.16%, and the seven-day Shibor interest rate rose by 16bp to 2.27%.
Investment suggestions:
According to the position data of Q4 fund in 2021, the positions in the banking sector continued to decline, which basically reflected the pessimistic expectation of the market for the overall economy and credit risk at the end of last year. Since the beginning of this year, the policy has pushed forward to help the economic repair, protect liquidity and improve market expectations, and the banking sector as a whole has achieved absolute and relative returns. At present, the Pb corresponding to the valuation of the sector is still at a low level of about 0.64 times. In the future, we need to pay attention to the repair trend and rhythm of the overall economy, and continue to recommend: China Merchants, Ping An, Xingye, Ningbo, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) .
Risk tips:
1) the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase, and the credit cost has increased significantly; 2) Business differentiation of small and medium-sized banks, major business insurance of individual banks, etc.
