The main reason for the collective decline of film and television stocks on February 7 was that the box office of the Spring Festival was lower than expected.
Although the box office of Spring Festival films exceeded 6 billion yuan, there is still a gap with last year. The film and television concept stocks in the A-share market also performed poorly on the first trading day after the Spring Festival.
On February 7, the A-share market had a good start. The Shanghai stock index opened sharply higher to close at 3429.58 points, up 2.03%; Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.96%; The gem index rose slightly by 0.31%.
On this prosperous first day, the performance of film and television concept stocks was unsatisfactory, especially Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corporation(002905) (002905. SZ), with a decline of 9.85%.
The box office of the Spring Festival is lower than that of last year
"It's still not as good as last year, more than a billion less!" The person in charge of a cinema in Anhui told times finance and economics that although several films are good during the Spring Festival this year, in fact, the overall sales are not good. "More than half of some scenes are empty, and the impact of the epidemic on the box office still exists."
According to the cat's eye data, the total box office market revenue of the Spring Festival China Film Co.Ltd(600977) in 2022 was 6.039 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.803 billion yuan compared with 7.842 billion yuan in the same period in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 23%, which was lower than the market expectation.
Among them, films with a box office of more than 100 million yuan include "shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake", "the killer is not too calm", "miracle · stupid child", "bear haunt · return to the earth", "Four Seas" and "sniper", reaching 2.532 billion yuan, 1.391 billion yuan, 668 million yuan, 562 million yuan, 473 million yuan and 262 million yuan respectively.
For the reasons for the year-on-year decline in the box office of the Spring Festival, the person in charge of the above cinemas believes that first, affected by the epidemic, the attendance rate of cinemas in some areas of the Spring Festival this year is required to be controlled at about 50%, compared with 70% ~ 75% last year; Second, the film viewing enthusiasm of this year's Spring Festival has decreased. "The originally planned release of" super family "has been temporarily withdrawn, and" shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake "has also been temporarily added. In addition, the high ticket prices of some cinemas have also affected the film viewing enthusiasm."
In the view of the person in charge, another reason is that "there is an emotional release effect at the box office of the Spring Festival in 2021. The demand for film viewing, which has been suppressed for a long time, was suddenly released during the Spring Festival last year, coupled with the stimulation of films such as Chinatown detective 3 and Hello, Li Huanying. But this year's consumption stimulus is gone, so the box office is not as good as last year."
Bohai Securities research report pointed out that the performance of the box office of the Spring Festival in 2022 was slightly lower than the market expectation, which was mainly caused by the disturbance of the epidemic situation in some regions, the increase of average ticket prices, and the reputation of some popular films did not meet the expectation. In addition, consumers' preference for film content has also been switched. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant films with box office potential in the future.
Film and television stocks plummeted in the secondary market
From the secondary market, on February 7, film and television concept stocks with A-share market decline of more than 5%, including Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corporation(002905) , Wuhan Ddmc Culture & Sports Co.Ltd(600136) (600136. SH), Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) (002739. SZ), Shanghai Film Co.Ltd(601595) (601595. SH), China Film Co.Ltd(600977) (600977. SH), Hengdian Entertainment Co.Ltd(603103) (603103. SH), Omnijoi Media Corporation(300528) (300528. SZ), Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) (300251. SZ), H&R Century Union Corporation(000892) (000892. SZ), Ciwen Media Co.Ltd(002343) (002343. SZ), etc.
On the same day, the performance of film and television concept stocks listed in Hong Kong stocks was also unsatisfactory. Reading group (00772. HK) fell 2.72% to HK $48.20, Ali film (01060. HK) fell 3.70% to HK $0.78, and cat's eye entertainment (01896. HK) fell 6.28%.
On February 7, Cultural Investment Holdings Co.Ltd(600715) (600715. SH) became the only film and television concept stock in the A-share market, rising 10.03% to close at 3.18 yuan.
"But its limit does not come from the film, but the concept of the Winter Olympics." Bing dwen dwen, a media analyst from a brokerage company in East China, told Cultural Investment Holdings Co.Ltd(600715) that the concept of "Winter Olympics" is a popular product of the Olympic Games. "Now it's not a hard time to get it." the mascot of the Winter Olympic Games is selling hot and the two tier market reflects this expectation.
The analyst believes that the main reason for the collective decline of film and television stocks on February 7 is that the box office of the Spring Festival is lower than expected. "For no other reason, there are only a few centralized sales periods for films. Now one of the Spring Festival, summer and National Day files is less than expected, so investors are more worried about the sales of film and television stocks this year, resulting in the decline of share prices in the secondary market. Cat eye entertainment is the most typical representative. It is the leader of online ticketing, which must have the greatest impact on it."
However, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) researcher Wang guanran predicts that with the improvement of epidemic control and the improvement of industrial production capacity of the film industry, the film market in 2022 is expected to further recover on the basis of 2021.
Can the price rise of movie tickets stimulate performance
According to the cat's eye data, the total number of tickets issued for the Spring Festival in 2022 was 114 million, a year-on-year decrease of about 28.8% compared with 160 million in the same period in 2021; The average ticket price was 52.8 yuan, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year compared with 48.8 yuan in the same period in 2021.
"It is undeniable that high ticket prices do inhibit some consumption, but I think it is normal for movie tickets to be a little expensive during the Spring Festival. If the price of washing cars rises during the Spring Festival, can't movie tickets rise?" The person in charge of the above cinemas believes that the price rise of film tickets in the Spring Festival is a trend and has a positive contribution to the performance of cinema listed companies.
In terms of single chip performance, "shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake" leads the Spring Festival. With good reputation and family happy positioning, the proportion of film arrangement continues to rise, surpassing "Four Seas" and ranking second in the second place since the second day of the lunar new year.
Then, can the increase in ticket prices and the stimulation of popular films affect the performance of relevant listed companies?
Times finance and economics noted that the listed companies involved in "shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake" include China Film Co.Ltd(600977) , Alibaba pictures, H&R Century Union Corporation(000892) . The listed companies involved in "this killer is not too calm" include reading group, cat's eye entertainment, etc.
"It has little impact on our performance." On February 7, H&R Century Union Corporation(000892) people from the Securities Department told times finance that the company is only one of the co producers of "shuimen bridge of Changjin lake." investors can pay attention to our regular announcements for specific data. "
"Sniper" directed by Zhang Yimou grossed 262 million yuan in the Spring Festival. The film is mainly produced by Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) . On February 7, Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) people from the Securities Department told times finance that the specific investment proportion belongs to trade secrets and will not be disclosed. "It will be disclosed only if its box office revenue exceeds half of last year's revenue."
As for Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) what other films will be released in 2022, the person from the above Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) Securities Department said that the company will generally disclose in the regular report. In the past two years, excluding the impact of the epidemic, the company released about 15 films every year.
The research report points out that the key to the recovery of the film industry still lies in the content supply. Looking forward to the supply side in 2022, a number of high-quality domestic films are expected to be released this year; A number of overseas blockbusters have been determined to be released overseas in 2022 and are expected to be introduced into China. "In terms of cinemas, we believe that the market share of head cinemas with strong financial strength and rich management experience is expected to continue to increase. On the target, pay attention to popular film producers and leading cinemas, including Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) , China Film Co.Ltd(600977) , Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) ."
