Key investment points
Market last week: light industry manufacturing sector index fell. From January 24, 2022 to January 28, 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 4.57%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 5.00%, and the light industry manufacturing index fell by 5.71%, ranking 21st among the 28 Shenwan industries; The rise and fall of light industry manufacturing index sub sectors from high to low are:
Household light industry (- 5.30%), papermaking (- 5.98%), packaging and printing (- 6.43%).
Furniture: Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co.Ltd(002853) disclosure of performance forecast. 1) Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) released the performance forecast on January 29, 2022. The company expects the parent company to lose 240-300 million yuan in 2021, deducting 156-216 million yuan of non loss; In 2021q4, the loss attributable to the parent company is RMB 60-120 million, and the non loss deducted is RMB 91-151 million. 2) According to the performance forecast released on January 29, 2022, the company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 10.02-10.44 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 20-25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 100-150 million, a year-on-year decrease of 91.6% - 87.4%; The non net profit deducted was RMB 20-70 million, a year-on-year decrease of 98.1% - 93.3%. 3) Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co.Ltd(002853) on January 29, 2022, the company disclosed the performance forecast of 2021. It is expected to realize a net profit loss of 710 million yuan to 995 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 460.52% - 584.92%; Deduct non net profit of 719 million yuan – 964 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 483.22% - 613.87%. The company made significant provision for impairment, and the risk was basically cleared in 2021. We are optimistic that the customized furniture sector will be young in 2022, and the valuation will continue to be repaired. In terms of customization, we recommend [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ] and [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] in combination with the proportion of bulk business income, accounts receivable risk and valuation level. We suggest paying attention to [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ] and [ Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ]. In terms of software, it is the first to accelerate the promotion of independent brands and sink the leading [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] in channel construction; Meanwhile, [ Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) ], [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] and [Minhua holdings] are recommended.
E-cigarette: the effect of new tobacco is obvious, and the giant guides the new stage of tobacco development. On January 27, 2022, Altria group, an international tobacco giant, released its annual performance reports for 2021q4 and 2021. In 2021, the company realized a net operating income of US $26.013 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. The company's traditional tobacco business was affected by the downward trend of the traditional cigarette industry, and the shipment volume decreased year-on-year. The company launched a new type of tobacco business. HNB product iqos and atomized electronic cigarette product Juul were disturbed by the regulation for a short time. Juul still ranked first in the U.S. market, with a sales market share of 37.6% from 2021 / 11 / 18 to 2021 / 12 / 18. After we are optimistic about the industry norms, the effect of new tobacco replacing tobacco is obvious, the market of atomized e-cigarette continues to expand, the leader of atomized e-cigarette industry deeply cultivates technological innovation, and the industry concentration continues to improve. We continue to recommend [smore international]; It is suggested that we should pay close attention to the close cooperation with China tobacco, and distribute the flavors and fragrances and evaluate the [ Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) ] with high price performance ratio. Enterprises with thick slurry flake production technology [ Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) ].
Papermaking: in terms of price, as of January 28, 2022, the price of box board paper was 4904 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of corrugated paper was 3900 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of white cardboard was 5871 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of whiteboard was 4905 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; The price of double copper paper was 5380 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of double offset paper is 5700 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 25 yuan / ton. In terms of inventory, as of last Thursday (January 20, 2022), the weekly ratio of inventory of cultural paper and corrugated paper enterprises had decreased slightly. The industry operated stably and waited for the improvement of demand in 2022.
Risk tip: power rationing policy affects production capacity, raw material price fluctuations, intensified Sino US trade frictions, weak downstream demand, etc. Note: except for special notes, all currencies in the full text are RMB.
