Current investment tips:
It is expected that the performance of covid-19 vaccine and R & D outsourcing services will be fulfilled, and the high barrier sub circuit in the upstream will usher in high growth: China will start covid-19 vaccination for key populations at the end of 2020, and all provinces and cities will also start vaccination in September 2021, We expect that the Chinese market of covid-19 vaccine will help relevant vaccine listed companies achieve their performance targets in 2021. At the same time, due to the relatively orderly epidemic prevention and control in China and the continuous increase of R & D investment of pharmaceutical enterprises, we believe that the pharmaceutical R & D outsourcing industry can continue the high-speed growth trend in 2021. In addition to the above two sub sectors, we expect that with the continuous domestic substitution and technology catch-up, some upstream specialized Texin companies are also expected to achieve rapid development in 2021. On the other hand, due to the covid-19 epidemic is still not over, the patient admission has not yet recovered to the historical level, and the impact of medical insurance negotiation price reduction is superimposed, the performance of middle and downstream companies in the industry represented by innovative drugs is still under pressure.
Profit forecast for 2021: we have made a forecast on the performance of 45 listed companies related to the pharmaceutical industry in 2021, of which 9 companies have net profit growth of more than 100%: Novogene Co.Ltd(688315) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Chengdu Olymvax Biopharmaceuticals Inc(688319) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Suzhou Nanomicro Technology Co.Ltd(688690) , Qingdao Haier Biomedical Co.Ltd(688139) , Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) , Jenkem Technology Co.Ltd(688356) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) ; There are 10 companies with a growth rate of 40% ~ 100%:
\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) 、 Eyebright Medical Technology(Beijing) Co.Ltd(688050) 、 Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) 、 Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) 、 Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) 、 Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) 、 Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co.Ltd(688131) 、 Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) 、 Cspc Innovation Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300765) 、 Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688166) ； There are 7 companies with a growth rate of 30% ~ 40%: Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Jafron Biomedical Co.Ltd(300529) , Shanghai General Healthy Information And Technology Co.Ltd(605186) , Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Autobio Diagnostics Co.Ltd(603658) ; There are 7 companies with a growth rate of 20% ~ 30%: Autek China Inc(300595) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Zhejiang Wolwo Bio-Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300357) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Nanjing Well Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603351) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) ; There are three companies with a growth rate of 0 ~ 20%: Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) ; There are 6 companies with negative growth of net profit attributable to the parent company: Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Beijing Balance Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688198) , Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) , Jiangsu Apon Medical Technology Co.Ltd(300753) , Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) , Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) ; One company with narrowed losses: Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) – U; There are {68813} companies with loss and profit.
Investment analysis opinions: (1) affected by the recent introduction of the centralized procurement catalogue of the alliance of 11 provinces in Guangdong, the pharmaceutical sector continued to suffer setbacks in late January. It is suggested to pay attention to the oversold stocks in the early stage; (2) The 14th five year plan of pharmaceutical industry jointly issued by the Ministry of industry and information technology and other nine ministries and commissions
The plan sets a new industry growth target. While stabilizing the expectation, it focuses on the overweight of innovation and R & D investment. It is suggested to pay attention to the long-term growth opportunities of innovation driven companies (including upstream specialized and special new companies that have established strong technical barriers) and foreign export-oriented preparation / device companies. It is suggested to pay attention to: Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Suzhou Nanomicro Technology Co.Ltd(688690) , Jenkem Technology Co.Ltd(688356) .
Risk tip: performance is not as expected, policy risk, innovative drug research and development risk, covid-19 epidemic risk.
