As expected, the year of the tiger made a "good start" and the three major stock indexes rose collectively.
On February 7, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.03%, the Shenzhen composite index also rose 0.96%, and the gem index rose 0.31%.
Stocks in the two cities rose more and fell less. More than 3500 stocks were popular, with a rise to fall stock ratio of 3:1, and a net capital inflow of 5.552 billion yuan to the north.
The capital construction sector is now in the limit tide, cement, rare earth and oil and gas burst, and steel, coal, finance and automobile also rose collectively. Scenic spots, education, communications and other sectors led the decline.
However, at this happy moment, there are differences in the operation of institutions. The 21st Century Business Herald reporter interviewed a number of investment institutions, some of which are considering "reducing positions at high prices" or waiting, and some are considering increasing positions. There is no consensus on the investment direction, and there is a lot of controversy over whether to choose value stocks, growth stocks or cyclical stocks.
Will China's stock market be the brightest in the world?
During the long Spring Festival holiday of A-share, the peripheral markets generally rose sharply, including the U.S. stock market, European stock market and Asian stock market, which provided an opportunity for the A-share market to make a good start.
In the overseas market during the Spring Festival, "the global market looks at the Asia Pacific and the Asia Pacific market looks at Hong Kong stocks".
Among them, the Hong Kong stock market made a good start on the first trading day of the year of the tiger on February 4. The Hang Seng Index rose 3.24% and the whole spring festival rose 4.34%.
At the same time, the negative impact of the Fed's interest rate hike on the future market is gradually reduced. The decline of A-Shares and Hong Kong stocks before the festival is actually an excessive interpretation of this negative factor.
When the negative factors are reduced, A-Shares face many positive factors.
Great Wall Fund pointed out that at present, the most important fundamentals and policies for the A-share market are stable. On the one hand, the earnings season begins, and there are many highlights in the annual report forecast of listed companies; On the other hand, from the perspective of liquidity, under the background of global economic contraction and increasing uncertainty of overseas environment, the looseness and stability within A-Shares make its comparative advantage more and more significant.
Wang Hongyuan, honorary chairman of Qianhai open source fund, said that it is inevitable that the global stock market will enter a risk release period in 2022 under the background of unprecedented water release, rising inflation and the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy. In this context, the Chinese stock market in the year of the tiger will become one of the most beautiful markets in the global stock market. The long-term strategic turning point for global capital to actively pursue China's high-quality stocks and bonds has emerged. Excellent local institutional investors should take action, seize rare strategic opportunities and meet a better tomorrow of China's capital market with global investors.
In this context, the A-share confidence index of Rongzhi · China hedge fund managers released by private placement network in February was 117.70, an increase of 0.24% month on month, indicating that managers are optimistic about the restless market in spring. For the February market, 53% of fund managers are neutral and 45% of fund managers are optimistic.
Mechanism operation: reduce positions at every height and PK increase positions
However, under the general rise of the market on the first trading day of the year of the tiger, market differences are still large.
The reporter found that the operation of many institutions is even very different from that before the festival.
When A-Shares fell sharply before the Spring Festival, many institutions frequently increased their positions. At the same time, more than 20 public offering institutions and more than 10 private placement institutions announced to purchase their own funds.
However, after the Spring Festival, although some institutions believe that the short-term market may rise, they are ready to guard against the ebb tide and reduce their positions at high prices.
Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong times, said that due to the expected contraction of the Federal Reserve and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, most of the bad news has been reflected in a shares, and the high position was maintained at the end of the last trading day before the festival.
Zhao Yuanyuan expects the return of risk aversion funds after the festival to last about half a week.
"As we predict that the new increment of base currency in February will not be higher than that in January, we will bargain hunting and reduce positions in the first week." Zhao Yuanyuan said.
"When the economic data of the first two months are released in late February and early March, the position increase range will be determined according to the predicted short-term monetary easing probability at that time." Zhao Yuanyuan said.
When A-Shares fell sharply before the Spring Festival, Xuanjia finance's investment was to increase its holdings.
However, when the A shares rose sharply after the Spring Festival, Lin Jiayi, CEO of Xuanjia finance, said, "we will be patient and wait for the valuation to be repaired. If there is a big impact and a big drop reaches the set price, we will continue to increase our holdings in a disciplined manner."
His view on the good start of the year of the tiger is that "the return of funds at the beginning of the year is high, which is just a one-time capital purchase."
However, some fund managers are optimistic.
Hu Po, fund manager of private placement network, said that as a fof fund manager, his pre holiday position is at a high level, but the overall allocation is more balanced. At that time, in terms of strategy, he configured some neutral hedging, arbitrage and CTA strategies, so the overall net value fluctuated less.
"This year, the market is still in a changeable structural market, but we are not pessimistic. After the correction before the festival, our attitude will be more optimistic, so we will gradually increase some long positions in stocks and be optimistic about the future performance of the stock market." Hu po said.
Investment direction: value stock PK growth stock
There are also differences in institutional views on the investment direction, and there is no obvious main line at present.
Northbound funds bought a net 5.552 billion yuan on the first trading day of the year of the tiger, of which the Shanghai Stock connect bought a net 6.6 billion yuan, but the Shenzhen Stock connect sold a net 1.1 billion yuan.
On the same day, financial stocks led the net purchase of northbound funds, such as Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) . In addition, many financial stocks such as China stock market news, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) also received substantial purchase of northbound funds.
It is worth noting that the infrastructure sector, which rose sharply on February 7, was not favored by foreign investors, and there were no infrastructure stocks in the top ten transactions.
Zhao Yuanyuan said that the industry still adheres to the style of "cycle + growth" in the first quarter. As the situation in Russia and Ukraine intensifies and commodity prices rise, the current position is slightly off cycle until China's growth data significantly improves, leading to the normalization of monetary and fiscal policies.
Lin Jiayi said that he was optimistic about the "three fools" in ah shares (banking, insurance and real estate) + dilemma reversal caused by the epidemic + Hong Kong stock medicine undervalued and large and whole enterprises + Hong Kong stock medium stock Internet undervalued head enterprises.
He warned that from a three-year perspective, the market will continue to enter the credit crunch from 2022 to 2024, the valuation will continue to shrink, and the asset repricing pattern will continue. Basically, it will be similar to a 2016-2018 year underestimation of the two or three year valuation of the head enterprise because of its excellent industry and very low valuation.
