Chinese New Year's A-share has a good start! However, analysts stressed that the market bottoming to reversal is not achieved overnight. The two major constraints affecting the market, the impact of overseas interest rates and the decline in Chinese demand, are still fermenting. It is suggested that the post holiday mentality is optimistic and the operation is not radical.
On February 7, driven by the strong rise of cyclical stocks, A-Shares ushered in a good start on the first trading day of the year of the tiger as scheduled. More than 3400 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed up, and investors were happy to receive red envelopes.
After a sharp correction in January 2022, investors avoided risks and held currency for the Spring Festival. On the first day of the year of the tiger, the falling performance of the gem also worried the market sentiment. When will the high-profile new energy, semiconductor, military industry, medicine and other tracks stop falling and how should they be configured?
The reporter of the international finance news interviewed several analysts. They believed that the market started well on the first day of the year of the tiger, boosted confidence, generally exhausted the negative factors that suppressed the market in January, and the accelerated tightening of the Federal Reserve has been implemented. Measured by a very short time window, the market is seriously oversold, and it is expected to see some technical rebound, but the technical rebound is often fleeting. Investors need to pay attention to the impact of overseas interest rates and the risk of falling Chinese demand.
cycle stock haosa "year of the tiger red envelope"
Driven by cyclical sectors such as oil and gas, lithium battery, coal, cement and infrastructure, A-Shares opened higher in early trading and ushered in a good start on the first day of the year of the tiger. Investors were happy to receive red envelopes, but from the downward trend, their mood was not high. The stock index rose in shock throughout the day, and finally fell 2.03% to 3429.58 points; Gem refers to that morale did not rise all the way, with an intraday increase of up to 2.7%. After a big correction, it turned green at one time in the late trading, and finally closed up 0.31% to 2917.86 points.
Sectors and individual stocks rose more and fell less. A total of 26 of 31 shenwanyi industries rose. The building decoration sector led the audience with an increase of 5.99%. The petroleum and petrochemical, building materials, coal and steel sectors rose by more than 4%, and banks and non-ferrous metals rose by more than 3%; Computers, media, communications, food and beverage all fell by no more than 1%. A total of 3447 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed up, with 109 trading stocks; 1110 stocks closed lower, with 48 stocks falling by the limit.
From the perspective of market trading activity, affected by the significant decline of A-Shares in the week before the year of the tiger, the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen markets today continued the previous "risk aversion" attitude, with a daily turnover of about 824.3 billion yuan. Today's A-share had a good start, which boosted market sentiment.
The move of going north to buy funds also boosted market confidence, with a net inflow of 5.55 billion yuan today, mainly buying Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , Byd Company Limited(002594) ; Since the beginning of the year, {312024, {600024} have been purchased, with a total of {312024} and {600024} so far.
"The beginning of the year of the tiger is a good omen. We should allocate high-quality leading stocks to cross the bull bear cycle." Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, told our reporter that the negative factors that suppressed the market in January have been digested to a certain extent. The Fed's interest rate increase was expected by the market and its impact on the future market has gradually decreased. It is a good sign that the A-share market has made a good start in the year of the tiger, and the year of the ox has been adjusted for almost a year. This provides a condition for the rise of the year of the tiger.
How to understand the market on the first day of the year of the tiger? He Jinlong, general manager of meimeili investment, said in an interview with the reporter of the international finance news that the A-share index opened higher on the first day of the year of the tiger, and the market differentiation was more serious. The trend of high opening and high going is mainly growth stocks, while low-cost blue chips show a shock upward trend. At present, the peripheral market is gradually stabilizing, but it should be noted that the disturbing factors of interest rate increase expectation will still exist. At present, the growth stocks of Gaojing bearing track are not clear. In the case of different capital inflows, the short-term performance is to avoid high and low, which is also the mainstream market of today's market performance. With the support of the national policy of steady growth, the tone of the pattern of stable and slow rise remains unchanged. After the adjustment, the adjustment sector stops falling and stabilizes, which is an opportunity for investors to get on the bus.
pay attention to peripheral risks
In January 2022, A-Shares showed a significant correction, and the index, sectors and individual stocks all showed "tragic". According to the data of China stock market news choice, since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai index has fallen 5.77% and the gem index has fallen sharply by 12.18%. In terms of shenwanyi industry, eight sectors including media, biomedicine, electronics, food and beverage decreased by more than 10%, and the national defense and military industry decreased by nearly 18%; Only banks, architectural decoration and real estate rose, with a maximum increase of no more than 6%.
Since the beginning of the year, a total of 2077 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen have fallen by more than 10%, of which nearly 500 stocks have fallen by more than 20%. The cumulative decline of "big brother" Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) in Shanghai stock market was 8.88%, and the latest total market value evaporated nearly 230 billion yuan compared with December 31, 2021; During the period of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , it fell by more than 12% and the market value evaporated by more than 100 billion yuan. Shenzhen "big brother" Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) opened high and went low today, closing down 2.22%, down 1.46% year to date; Byd Company Limited(002594) year to date decline of 8.85%.
What are the reasons for the significant adjustment of A-Shares in January 2022? Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) according to the analysis, the main reason is that under the influence of the continuous fermentation of the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates, the valuation of A-Shares and high valuation track stocks such as new energy, semiconductor, medicine and metauniverse have been adjusted in resonance. In addition, the decline of fund issuance scale and certain redemption pressure at the beginning of 2022 are also one of the reasons for the adjustment of a shares.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) in the research report, he said frankly that he is still optimistic about the follow-up performance of the A-share market. On the one hand, because the current negative factors have been largely exhausted, the accelerated tightening of the Federal Reserve has been implemented, the probability of full outbreak of geopolitical risks is low, and the space for further deterioration of market sentiment is limited. On the other hand, the main reason for this round of deep correction mainly comes from overseas markets. There is no sign of further deterioration in China's economic fundamentals, and the overall liquidity environment is also better. With the gradual repair of market sentiment, the A-share market is expected to usher in a counterattack. But at the same time, the risk of uncertainty still exists, and the downward pressure on the economy is great.
BOC International said that there is little suspense about the opening of A-Shares in the lunar new year, but the bottom to the reversal of the market is not achieved overnight. The two major constraints affecting the market, the impact of overseas interest rates and the decline in Chinese demand, are still fermenting. It is suggested that the post holiday mentality is optimistic and the operation is not radical. From the perspective of the whole year, reverse investment at this stage is more valuable than following the trend. From the perspective of industrial chain, we need to pay close attention to and layout the midstream manufacturing industry. Judging from the style, the performance and valuation of the high boom track are cost-effective, and the growth direction affected by sentiment and trading will not continue to decline.
Hong Hao, chief economist of BOCOM international, reminded investors that they should pay more attention to the risks of US stocks rather than potential returns. They are more concerned about how the fluctuations of US stocks will affect the Chinese market. It is more important to identify the larger macro situation. The macro background dominates the longer trading cycle. It is worth noting that the Shanghai Composite Index peaked at 3790 on December 31, 2021 and closed at 3361 before the Spring Festival. Measured by a very short time window, the market is seriously oversold and is expected to see some technical rebound, but the technical rebound is often fleeting and difficult to trade.
Yang Ziyi, research director of Zhongrui Heyin, told the reporter of international finance that in the medium and long term, carbon neutrality, high-end manufacturing and technology are still the core themes of China's economic development, but after continuous rise in recent years, the valuation is relatively high, and the overall continuous rise is difficult to continue. In the context of the epidemic, carbon neutrality and economic structural transformation, China's economy is under temporary downward pressure. National policies such as "stable growth", wide liquidity and "moderately ahead of infrastructure investment" are conducive to the marginal improvement of the fundamentals of infrastructure, finance, steel and other undervalued sectors, and the short-term relative risk return ratio is significantly improved.
it is more important to optimize individual stock competition channel investment
In January 2022, the correction continued, the gem index opened higher and fell on the first day of the year of the tiger, and the market sentiment was still worried. When will new energy, semiconductor, medicine and other sectors stop falling? Banks, real estate and other recent make-up sectors, how should investors layout?
He Jinlong firmly believes that high-tech tracks such as new energy and semiconductors will still be the main trend in the future. For stocks with high scenery and high overvalued characteristics, the volatility in the short term will show differentiation and correction of the market, which is also an inevitable reaction of market sentiment. Medicine has experienced a long-term correction and rebounded today, but the volume energy is still a contraction performance, which may be stabilized and rebounded in the short term, but the subsequent volume energy changes still need to be observed to build the bottom. Banks, building materials and real estate are also one of the main reasons for today's rise in the market. However, from the past performance, banks are often not sustainable, but they still have strong defense. In addition, investors also need to observe the macro changes in the peripheral market to make appropriate adjustments to the impact of different industries and valuation expectations to make investment decisions.
"Simple track investment is no longer the best choice. Choosing individual stocks is more important than choosing track, which tests investors' research ability and asset management ability." Yang Ziyi believes that structural opportunities under multi-dimensional differentiation will continue to appear in 2022. Compared with the differentiation between sectors in 2021, the differentiation between sectors and within sectors is more obvious in 2022. Tracks such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and semiconductors with high overvalued value and infrastructure, finance and other sectors with low overvalued value can not be simply generalized. Stocks with high overvalued value but competitive advantages and continuous performance verification will continue to prosper after a short adjustment, Undervalued stocks without sustained performance support are still difficult to continue to rise. Therefore, style switching depends on the observation cycle, short-term high-low switching, and long-term multi-dimensional structure differentiation market.
Yang Ziyi further said that it is precisely because the internal differentiation of the sector is becoming more and more obvious that it is better to be optimistic about which industry sectors than which subdivided industrial chains. First, the growth sector is optimistic about the military industry sector with obvious comparative advantages in valuation and growth. In the industrial chain, it is more optimistic about the aircraft and missile links with faster short-term growth, and the military electronic informatization direction with stronger long-term certainty. At the same time, we will continue to be optimistic about the new energy vehicle sector with the best absolute growth and new infrastructure attributes, and the diaphragm and power battery links with clear industry pattern and better supply-demand relationship in the industrial chain. Second, the real estate chain is optimistic about the head property and consumer building materials enterprises with better growth space and certainty. The third is the value sector, which is optimistic about some science and network giants with sufficient adjustment space and time, long-term certainty and bottom expectation in policy direction.
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