“A good start”, “double bottom resonance” and “counterattack start”… To welcome the opening of the year of the tiger, the strategic outlook of mainstream securities research institutions is very warm, and public offering, private placement and other buyer institutions have also expressed their optimism about the structural opportunities of the market this year.
Whether it is the “stability” of the macro economy, the abundance of liquidity, the improvement of market funds, the performance of listed companies exceeding expectations and the bright spots in the industry sector have injected confidence into the market institutions.
macroeconomic stability is at the forefront, and the valuation of A-Shares is “reasonably low”
When looking forward to the A-share market after the Spring Festival and the whole year, market institutions regard the “stability” of macro-economy as the primary supporting factor. Institutions generally believe that “stability” will be the key word throughout the year, and the economy will “focus on stability” in 2022.
In the short term, “steady growth” policy is the mainstream expectation of the institution. Dai Kang, chief strategic analyst of Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) predicted that the “steady growth” policy will be intensively implemented from the Spring Festival to the two sessions. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) the latest strategy report also believes that the policy synergy of “stable growth” is gradually taking shape, and the macro economy is expected to “develop in the future” in the first quarter.
Looking forward to the whole year, Huaxia Fund said that the fiscal policy in 2022 is expected to strengthen support for the economy, and the monetary policy will continue to be stable and loose; In terms of industrial policy, some major projects and pipe network transformation may be used as a starting point to promote the moderate recovery of infrastructure investment, while the manufacturing industry focuses on improving expectations and maintaining a certain investment growth rate by increasing policy support in finance and taxation.
The macro strategy Department of GF stressed that “stability” does not mean comprehensive stimulus. High quality development is still the focus of economic growth. This year, the direction of policy regulation may be moderately leveraged, while the direction of policy encouragement is expected to be leveraged.
Deng Xiaofeng, partner and chief investment officer of Gaoyi assets, said that this year’s macroeconomic and corporate profit growth may face certain pressure. However, from a policy perspective, China has more policy space to deal with the pressure of economic growth. When the “steady growth” starts to work, the economy can stabilize and recover, which will also provide a better investment window for the capital market.
In the long run, Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin securities, also expressed optimism. He believes that with the progress of technology and the improvement of income level, China will continue to upgrade and transform to the field of high-end manufacturing and new services, especially in the field of major technological and business model changes, as well as the key areas that need to achieve technological autonomy, such as new energy vehicles, renewable energy, electronic manufacturing, medical and elderly care services, and will be able to maintain rapid growth.
In this context, the current valuation of A-Shares is reasonable. Gao Shanwen believes that the valuation of the benchmark CSI 300 index is currently at a slightly higher level than the median in the past decade. Corresponding to the market’s unanimous expectation of profit in 2022, the dynamic P / E ratio is at a low level of 20% historical quantile. Gao Shanwen said that on the whole, the market is currently in a reasonable valuation range, or even in a “reasonably low” position.
relatively abundant liquidity and effective improvement of capital
For the “liquidity worries” that once harassed the market before the Spring Festival, the mainstream view of institutions is that there is no need to worry too much.
Li Lifeng, deputy director and chief strategic analyst of the Institute, believes that the overseas policy shift will not restrict China’s policy orientation. From the perspective of the time cycle of guiding wide currency to wide credit, China’s macro liquidity is expected to remain relatively abundant in the next quarter or two.
Chen Guo, chief strategist of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) also made it clear that market concerns are expected to subside after the festival. He believes that although facing the pressure of global liquidity tightening, China’s economic fundamentals cycle and policy independence determine that the current easing cycle has not ended. For a shares, the impact of “internal loosening” is greater than “external tightening”.
In addition, from the perspective of market funds, since late January, the issuance of funds has obviously warmed up, and the full launch of self purchase by institutions will effectively improve the short-term liquidity of the market after the Spring Festival.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) statistics show that from January 17 to 28, partial equity funds issued 75.4 billion new shares, and 102.8 billion shares were issued in the month, basically returning to the normal level, providing incremental funds for the market. At the same time, the self purchase scale of the fund has also increased significantly. In December 2021, partial equity funds purchased 523 million yuan, a new high since July 2015. In January 2022, it purchased 455 million yuan from itself again. In addition, a number of private placement and asset management of securities companies have also launched self purchase. Among them, eight private placement companies including Jiukun investment and magic square quantification announced that they would purchase their own products of no less than 790 million yuan.
Zhang Qiyao, chief strategist of China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that although historically, the large-scale self purchase of public funds is not equal to the bottom reading signal, the large-scale self purchase of funds after the sharp decline in the market is often one of the important bottom signals.
outstanding structural highlights and better than expected performance growth
At the meso level of the market, most institutions said that structural opportunities this year are still worthy of attention, and expectations should be appropriately lowered.
Celestica Fund said that looking forward to the whole year, it is expected that the stock market will still be dominated by shocks. In the face of various short-term interference factors, the main strategy is to deal with the short-term uncertainty of the market by investing in excellent enterprises whose performance is expected to continue to exceed expectations and whose medium and long-term core competitiveness also continues to exceed expectations.
CCB believes that the core focus in 2022 is the possible marginal change in economic momentum. On the investment side, the stability of real estate is an “important concern” of all parties; Meanwhile, affordable housing construction and green energy new infrastructure are two structural highlights. “In 2022, under the background of sustained profit growth and stable policy environment, we believe that the A-share market will continue last year’s structural market, and the overall market trend should be stronger than that in 2021.” Said Zhu Chaoping, global market strategist at Morgan asset management.
Yinhua Fund believes that from the annual change law of valuation, the probability of A-share valuation will shrink after two consecutive years of expansion. However, at present, the structural overvaluation of A-Shares has eased compared with the beginning of the year, so it corresponds to the structural opportunities of the market.
In the disclosure quarter of the annual report, the performance data exceeded expectations and also helped to ease the valuation pressure. Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) the latest statistics show that as of February 5, the release rate of performance forecast of A-share annual report has reached 43%, which has a certain representativeness. At present, the growth rate of annual report forecast performance is higher than the previous market expectation. Among them, the enterprises with accelerated annual report performance are mainly concentrated in TMT (electronics, software, media), new energy industry chain (UHV, motor, etc.) and some traditional cycle sectors, such as cement manufacturing, general machinery, etc. Dai Kang said that the higher than expected performance forecast of the annual report will continue to help the market diffusion of low PEG (price earnings ratio relative to profit growth ratio) technology stocks and some undervalued value stocks.
In terms of specific allocation direction, Huaxia Fund said that in 2022, the boom structure and valuation order will be more matched, so the boom investment characteristics will be more obvious, and the growth and stable growth style with better boom will be significantly dominant; At the same time, the main logic of economic development may transition to steady growth. We can pay attention to several important industry clues, including industrial chain investment driven by new energy power investment, military industry with growth certainty, and areas in line with policy incentives, such as network security.
Harvest Fund also believes that in the absence of greater flexibility in earnings and valuation, A-Shares will still be a volatile market dominated by high boom structural opportunities in 2022. Specifically, for the high boom track, it is relatively optimistic about the military industry sector; The new energy industry chain is expected to differentiate under the overvalued value, and is relatively optimistic about the downstream links; On the contrary, it is optimistic about the compulsory consumption and agriculture benefiting from the price rise.
the negative impact “peak” of the overall rise of overseas markets has passed
Then turn your attention to overseas markets. During the Spring Festival holiday, although the world’s major stock indexes fluctuated, they showed an overall upward trend. Since the A-share market was closed, the US Dow Jones Industrial Average Index rose 1.05%, the NASDAQ index rose 2.38%, the Nikkei 225 index rose 2.70%, the Hang Seng Index rose 4.34% and the Hang Seng technology index rose 5.48%.
Chen Xianshun, chief strategist of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) said that from the overall performance of US stocks, the gradual recovery of the market reflects the gradual easing of global investors’ concerns about the Fed’s interest rate hike. Although the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March this year has further increased, and the major central banks around the world have also accelerated the pace of tightening. For example, the Bank of England announced an interest rate increase of 25 basis points on February 3, the “peak moment” of the negative impact of liquidity expectations on the stock market is gradually passing.
Gao Shanwen also said that the US stock index has stabilized and rebounded in the past two weeks, indicating that the drag of external factors has been eliminated for the time being, even if it did have an impact (on a shares).
