The first trading day of the year of the tiger is about to “open”, and more than half of the listed companies have also handed over their “transcripts” of last year. According to the data, as of the latest closing date, 2565 of the 4644 A-share listed companies have issued performance forecasts for 2021, with a performance pre increase rate of nearly 60%.
Although the overall performance prediction rate remains relatively optimistic, the performance of blue chip stocks and poor performance stocks is very different. Taking the upper limit of predicted net profit as an example, 19 listed companies are expected to make an annual profit of more than 10 billion yuan, and China Mobile (60094.1. SH) is “the best” with 116.4 billion yuan; In terms of losses, Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) (002024. SZ) suffered a huge loss of 43.3 billion yuan, and the advance loss of 12 companies reached 10 billion yuan.
The reporter noted that in addition to the sharp decline in performance caused by poor management of individual enterprises, individual stocks from pig breeding, real estate, aviation and other industries are difficult to survive the downturn of the whole industry, recording the first loss or even huge loss of performance.
big winners in new energy and chemical industry
From the annual report performance forecast that has been disclosed, on the whole, the performance growth of the cycle sector is better than that of high-end manufacturing and biomedicine, and the performance growth of high boom track stocks is also significantly better than that of traditional industries.
In 2021, the demand for new energy products in the upper reaches and the demand for new energy materials in the lower reaches continued to rise, especially the demand for new energy products in the lower reaches.
The performance of “two giants of lithium industry” Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (002466. SZ) and Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460. SZ) increased sharply. Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) it is expected to turn losses into profits in 2021 and realize a net profit of 1.8 billion to 2.4 billion yuan; Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) the net profit is expected to reach 4.8 billion to 5.5 billion yuan, an increase of 368.45% ~ 436.76% over the same period of the previous year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction is expected to increase by 621.00% ~ 795.04% year-on-year.
Previously, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750. SZ) released a performance forecast for 2021, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 14 billion to 16.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 150.75% to 195.52%, and the performance exceeded expectations. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) said that the main reasons for the increase in performance over the same period of last year include the increase in the market penetration of new energy vehicles and energy storage in 2021, driving the growth of battery sales; The release of new production capacity, the corresponding increase of production and sales volume, the strengthening of cost control and the reduction of the proportion of expenses in revenue.
The biggest earners are still the Big Mac of several central enterprises. PetroChina and China Mobile respectively predict that the net profit after deducting one-time profit and loss in 2021 will be at least 121.9 billion yuan and 107.2 billion yuan. The pre profit scale of Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) (601919. SH), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) (600028. SH), China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) (601088. SH) is more than 50 billion yuan.
From the perspective of the industries to which the top earning stocks belong, the energy and materials industries have become the most profitable industries in 2021, including coal mining, chemical materials, ferrous metal smelting, nonferrous metal mining and so on. Only in the coal sector, the net profit scale of Yankuang energy (600188. SH), China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) (601898. SH), China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) 3 coal stocks ranked in the top 20; Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) (000932. SZ) and Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) (600019. SH) are expected to make a maximum profit of 9.9 billion yuan and 23.98 billion yuan respectively. In addition, Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) (002493. SZ) and Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (600309. SH) became the two most profitable chemical stocks.
Baijiu Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (600519.SH) and duty-free tap China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (601888.SH) become the only two consumer sector stocks in the top 20 of the pre profit scale, and the latter net profit is the first time to cross the 10 billion mark. In addition, vaccine leader Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) (300122. SZ) is the only biomedical enterprise with a pre profit of more than 10 billion yuan.
real estate, pig and aviation enterprises lose profits for many years in one year
Data show that a total of 409 A-share listed companies issued advance loss announcements, with a total advance loss of 377.2 billion yuan to 449.2 billion yuan. Among them, the top ten listed companies with the highest advance loss amount have a total of nearly 200 billion yuan. The advance loss amounts of Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) and China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) (600340. SH) exceed 30 billion yuan, and the lower limit of net profit is expected to be 39.1 billion yuan and 43.3 billion yuan respectively. The latter has become the “loss king” of the two cities.
As of the latest closing date, Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) has a total market value of 36.4 billion yuan. The advance loss of 43.3 billion yuan not only makes it the “loss king” of the two cities, but also nearly 1.2 times the total market value.
Since 2015, Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) has started diversified transformation. The transformation in recent seven years has not brought performance benefits to the company. The operation of Carrefour, small stores, logistics and other businesses of the company has not improved. From 2020 to 2021, Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) will have a total loss of about 48 billion yuan.
Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) the huge loss of performance is more due to their own poor management, while the pre loss range of relevant stocks ranks first in real estate, aviation, pig breeding and other industries due to regulatory policies, epidemic prevention and control and other factors.
It is worth mentioning that the reporter counted the total loss amount and median of the top ten stocks with the highest performance pre loss amount in 2021, which were 195.2 billion yuan and 14.9 billion yuan respectively. Both data exceeded the level of the same period in 2020, and the performance differentiation momentum was obvious.
Since the covid-19 epidemic occurred two years ago, the aviation industry has suffered a huge impact. At present, the international route investment of major airlines continues to be limited, and the flow of China’s passenger transport market fluctuates sharply, resulting in the inability to achieve breakeven. Among the 13 enterprises with annual losses of more than 10 billion, three companies are from the aviation industry.
According to the announcement, Air China Limited(601111) (601111. SH) is expected to lose 14.5 billion yuan to 17 billion yuan in 2021, the largest loss among A-share airlines.
In 2020, Air China Limited(601111) the net profit attributable to the parent company will lose 14.4 billion yuan, and the total loss in the two years will at least exceed 28.9 billion yuan, and may even exceed 30 billion yuan. From 2016 to 2019, the total net profit of Air China Limited(601111) was 28 billion yuan. This means that Air China Limited(601111) lost four years of net profit in two years.
In addition, China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) (600115. SH) and China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) (600029. SH) also expect the maximum net profit loss to be 13.5 billion yuan and 12.8 billion yuan respectively.
In 2021, the national pig production capacity continued to recover. The oversupply of production capacity led to a sharp decline in pork prices. The pig price below the breakeven point of the whole industry made the industry enter a comprehensive loss. According to the reporter’s statistics, the slaughter volume of pigs in 2021 of the vast majority of top listed pig enterprises significantly exceeded the annual level of the previous year. The sharp decline in pork prices makes pig enterprises lose more and more. Two pig enterprises are expected to have a net loss of more than 10 billion in the whole year.
Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) (002157. SZ) has become a listed pig enterprise with “the best loss”. The company expects to lose 18.2 billion yuan to 19.7 billion yuan last year, a year-on-year decrease of 416.84% ~ 442.96%, and the amount of advance loss is second only to Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) and China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) .
Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) (300498. SZ) expects a net loss of 13 billion ~ 13.8 billion yuan in 2021, a decrease of 275% ~ 286% compared with the same period of last year, and a profit of 7.426 billion yuan in the same period of last year. The initial provision for impairment of biological assets in the reporting period is about RMB 30.8 billion.
At present, all parties in the market still have great differences on whether the inflection point of this round of pig cycle will appear in 2022. In the fourth quarter of last year, with the reluctant sale at the breeding end and the recovery at the demand end, pork prices rebounded periodically, resulting in twists and turns in the process of capacity removal, which means that during the bottom of the pig cycle, listed pig enterprises will still face the pressure of breeding cost this year.
Affected by multiple rounds of epidemics superimposed by the macroeconomic environment, industry environment and credit environment, the liquidity of real estate enterprises was in a stage of tension in 2021, which led to the annual performance loss of half of the enterprises in the industry.
According to the reporter’s statistical announcement, among the 66 A-share listed real estate enterprises that have issued the annual performance forecast for 2021, 30 have forecast losses, accounting for nearly half. Among them, China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) has a pre loss of 33.1 billion ~ 39.1 billion yuan, Sichuan Languang Development Co.Ltd(600466) has a pre loss of 12.037 billion yuan, and Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) (000671.sz) has a pre loss of 4.5 billion ~ 5.8 billion yuan. In addition, Zhongtian Financial Group Company Limited(000540) (000540. SZ), Myhome Real Estate Development Group Co.Ltd(000667) (000667. SZ) and other real estate enterprises also have the same performance pre loss.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) Mingming team believes that from the recent series of policy signals and landing effects, the month on month low point of both sales and investment in the real estate market has come, and the worst time is about to pass. The month on month improvement this year is a high probability event. It believes that real estate investment is more likely to maintain positive growth this year.
