The performance of A-share market was relatively flat in January 2022. The year of the tiger stock market officially started today. Will the market usher in the market of tiger vitality? What do institutions think of the future trend?
after the Spring Festival, the market of A-Shares mostly suppresses first and then rises
According to the statistics of the market performance of A-Shares after the Spring Festival in recent 10 years, the securities times · databao found that the market has a high probability of rising in the trading days after the festival. The data show that in the past 10 years (2012-2021), the Shanghai Composite Index rose only four times on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, respectively in 2014, 2018, 2019 and 2021, with a rise probability of only 40% and an average rise of 1.16%.
However, after the first trading day, the market performance is gradually strong. The data show that in the past 10 years, the Shanghai stock index rose as many as 7 times in the five trading days after the Spring Festival, with a rise probability of 70% and an average rise of 1.83%. The years of decline were 4.86% in 2013, 3.38% in 2020 and 2.49% in 2021.
The rising probability of 10 trading days and 20 trading days after the festival was 70%, and the average increase was expanded to 2.79% and 5.73% respectively.
According to the Shenzhen composite index, the rising probability on the first day after the festival is only 30%, and the rising probability on the next 5 days, 10 days and 20 days rises to 50%, 60% and 60% respectively. Gem refers to the relatively good performance after the festival. The rising probability on the first day after the festival reaches 60%, and the rising probability on the next 5 and 10 days reaches 80%.
It is noteworthy that the time interval will be extended. According to the data of the past 20 years, the probability of the Shanghai composite index rising in February is as high as 75%, significantly higher than that in other months.
Comprehensive data show that in recent 10 years, the probability of A-share market first restraining and then rising after the Spring Festival is very high.
pivoting star sector of each month
In addition to the situation after the festival, what will be the market rate of each month in the year of the tiger?
According to the statistics of the securities times and databao, based on the monthly rise and fall of the market index in recent 20 years, it is found that the rise probability in February is the highest, reaching 75%; The second is November, with an increase probability of 60%.
According to the monthly rise and fall data of Shenwan 31 industries in the past 10 years, among the months with the highest rise probability of the market in February, the rise probability of textile and clothing, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery reached 90%, and the average increase in February in the past 10 years was 4.58% and 5.21% respectively.
In January, July to December, when the market rose by more than 50%, most of the sectors with the highest rising probability were procyclical sectors such as building materials, household appliances, chemical industry, food and beverage, etc.
Holidays and shopping Carnival weeks are usually accompanied by consumer stocks dominated by "drinking and taking medicine". From the data of nearly 10 years, from October to mid December, the average rise probability of food and beverage, household appliances and medical biological index ranked first due to the catalysis of national day, double 11, double 12 Shopping Festival and Christmas.
183 shares outperformed the market for 10 consecutive years
From the performance of individual stocks in the five trading days after the Spring Festival in recent 10 years, 183 individual stocks have outperformed the market for 10 consecutive years. Among them, utilities, pharmaceutical, biological and chemical industries were the most selected stocks, with 21, 19 and 18 respectively. More than 10 stocks were selected in the computer, mechanical equipment, electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and media industries. The average outperformance of individual stocks such as Cecep Environmental Protection Equipment Co.Ltd(300140) , Tianjin Capital Environmental Protection Group Company Limited(600874) , Goldlok Holdings(Guangdong) Co.Ltd(002348) , Cnlight Co.Ltd(002076) , Xinlun New Materials Co.Ltd(002341) exceeded 10%.
Among the 183 stocks, 14 stocks had excellent performance and low valuation in the 2021 annual report. Among them, Guofeng new material, which has outperformed the market by an average of 9.13% in recent 10 years, is expected to achieve a net profit of 280 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 144% and a rolling P / E ratio of 19.99 times. The rolling P / E ratios of Beijing Capital Eco-Environment Protection Group Co.Ltd(600008) , Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) , Shenma Industry Co.Ltd(600810) are less than 10 times.
The latest market research and judgment of organization
At the beginning of the year, the market was calm, and the institutions remained optimistic about the market after the Spring Festival and looked forward to a rebound. Most institutions believe that A-Shares are currently in the process of adjustment, market pessimism is expected to be repaired after the festival, and there is expected to be an "oversold rebound" market.
fund policy and two sessions attracted attention
According to the sorting of data treasure, the opinions of institutions on the research and judgment of A-Shares after the festival mainly focus on the following aspects:
First, the capital is stable and loose. Dongguan Securities believes that in terms of the operation of the central bank, the central bank achieved a total net investment of 400 billion yuan in January and restarted the 14 day reverse repo operation, which reflects the requirements of appropriate policy development and the organic combination of cross cycle and counter cycle policies, promotes the steady decline of financing costs of the real economy, effectively boosts market confidence and contributes to the stable cross-section of liquidity.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that there is little overall pressure on the capital in February, and there may be fluctuations in the issuance volume of some government bonds and the timing of tax payment during the month. In the process of continued economic action in 2022, the possibility of another RRR reduction in the first quarter cannot be ruled out.
Second, policies protect "steady growth". The main line of "steady growth" is still the focus of institutions, and most institutions have some confidence in the introduction of policies to escort "steady growth". Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) believes that in combination with the idea of "effectively assuming the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy and actively launching monetary and financial policies conducive to economic stability" mentioned by the central bank in the 2022 annual work meeting, it means that a series of easing policy operations of the central bank in January is not the end point. Under the goal of stabilizing expectations, confidence and credit, it is still possible to reduce the reserve requirement again in the first quarter.
Bohai Securities believes that without the force of active fiscal policy, "wide currency" is difficult to spontaneously realize "wide credit". The total amount of fiscal expenditure will be strengthened, and the acceleration time point of infrastructure investment will significantly increase the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment by the beginning of 2022. At the same time, it will also significantly increase the year-on-year growth rate of fiscal expenditure.
Third, the themes of the two sessions can be arranged in advance. From the situation of the local two sessions, many institutions believe that the market before the two sessions is worth looking forward to.
Galaxy Securities said that recently, the two sessions have been held gradually. From the hot words mentioned in the two sessions, 5g, new energy vehicles, home appliances to the countryside, wind power photovoltaic and other words are highly popular, which are mentioned in more than 10 provinces. Reviewing the market performance of the previous 30 days before the two sessions, it is suggested to configure the theme opportunities of the two sessions in advance.
two main lines of investment after the festival
Investment strategy after the Spring Festival, "steady growth" + consumption are still the two main lines favored by major institutions. After the main line of "steady growth" was determined this year, there was a wave of rising market in relevant real estate and infrastructure sectors, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that the growth sector with deep decline in the early stage is expected to return to the upward trend.
For the main line of consumption, institutions are optimistic about the valuation repair market of oversold consumer stocks in the early stage. Bohai Securities believes that the consumer sector can obtain significant excess returns due to its defensive attribute and has obvious sustainability.
the latest list of institutional concern stocks is released
Many securities companies believe that 2022 is still a structural opportunity to look for high boom sectors. According to data treasure statistics, a total of 55 shares have received "buy" ratings from more than 10 institutions this year. In terms of industries, the stocks concerned by institutions are mainly concentrated in banking, food and beverage and light industry manufacturing industries, which account for more than 30% of the total.
Performance is usually one of the key factors concerned by institutions. Statistics show that the performance of 47 institutional concerned stocks in 2021 is expected to increase. In terms of the median expected increase in net profit, half of them are expected to increase by more than 50%, of which 11 stocks are expected to double their net profit, including Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) .
Since the beginning of the year, individual stocks in the A-share market have mainly retreated, and some institutional concern stocks have been relatively resistant to decline. The cumulative increase of 14 stocks is positive, Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) rose by more than 10% against the trend.
