On February 7, A-Shares ushered in the first trading day of the year of the tiger. After continuous adjustment before the Spring Festival, many securities companies are optimistic about the trend of A-Shares after the Spring Festival in their latest strategic views. They believe that the rebound in the peripheral market will help boost the risk appetite of a shares, the “bottom of the market” of A-Shares is approaching, and the “good start” of the year of the tiger is expected.
In the context of the sustained development of the “steady growth” policy, how to lay out the future market? Securities companies are more optimistic about the varieties with relatively low valuation and the fields with potential policy support, including new energy, automobile, food and beverage and other industries.
“market bottom” is gradually approaching
Looking back on the trend before the Spring Festival, under the influence of factors such as the “Eagle” of the Fed’s policy statement, the A-share market fell significantly before the festival.
During the Spring Festival, the performance of peripheral markets is undoubtedly the focus of Chinese investors. In terms of liquidity changes that are most concerned about, the European Central Bank recently announced to keep the three key interest rates unchanged; The Bank of England raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.50%, in line with market expectations; Several officials of the Federal Reserve made speeches to further strengthen the expectation of raising interest rates in March. The new employment of ADP in the United States in January exceeded the expectation, which also boosted the expectation of raising interest rates to a certain extent.
According to Qin Peijing, chief strategist of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , the current expectation of monetary tightening of overseas central banks has reached its peak stage by stage. Overseas investors have fully expected the operation idea of the Federal Reserve in the first half of the year, and the Federal Reserve has achieved the purpose of controlling inflation expectation stage by stage. It is likely that there will be no more “hawkish” expression than market expectation. The “emotional bottom” of the market has appeared before the festival, and the “market bottom” is gradually approaching.
Chen Xianshun, chief strategist of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities, also said that during the Spring Festival, with the digestion of the negative impact of liquidity expectations, US stocks stabilized and rebounded. At the same time, considering that A-Shares have gradually priced the changes of liquidity expectations before the festival, the negative impact of overseas liquidity expectations will continue to weaken marginally in the future. Overall, the market is expected to gradually stabilize after the Spring Festival.
It is not difficult to see the rebound of market confidence from the trend of peripheral markets during the Spring Festival. According to wind data, since January 28, the three major stock indexes of US stocks have shown an obvious rebound trend, and the main stock indexes in Europe have also shown a shock upward trend; In the Asia Pacific market, the main stock indexes of Japan and South Korea stopped falling and stabilized, and Hong Kong stocks rebounded strongly on January 31 and February 4.
In the view of Lin Rongxiong, chief strategist of Anxin securities, after the adjustment of the Spring Festival, the negative emotions of the market have been fully released. The external market has generally rebounded during the Spring Festival to boost the risk preference of the A share market. At present, the market has entered the late stage of bottom grinding, the short-term market risk appetite has warmed up, and the probability of further decline is very low. The market after the festival is expected to achieve a “good start” in the year of the tiger.
tap the main line of “steady growth”
Although from the perspective of liquidity, A-Shares face the pressure of tightening global liquidity, Chen Guo, chief strategist of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities, believes that China’s economic fundamentals cycle and policy independence determine that the current monetary easing cycle is not over, and the strong RMB exchange rate will support the independence and flexibility of China’s monetary policy, Have confidence in the stabilization and rebound of the market after the festival.
It is found that it is the consensus of many securities companies to continue the relatively loose situation of China’s liquidity. Whether the “steady growth” policy will be overweight after the festival has become a topic of more concern and expectation.
Wang Hanfeng, chief strategist of China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) pointed out that from the perspective of the economic growth goals set by various provinces and cities, local governments have strong determination to “stabilize growth”, and common prosperity, digital economy and low-carbon environmental protection are also the work priorities of high frequency. The current “policy bottom” of A-Shares has been basically confirmed. The “emotional bottom” may see the strength and rhythm of steady growth policies appear in the near future, and the “growth bottom” is gradually approaching. China’s economic growth is expected to gradually bottom out and pick up in the first half of the year. Under this background, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the A-share market.
Dai Kang, chief strategist of Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) also said that the probability of “steady growth” policy will be intensively implemented after the Spring Festival, which will be one of the important factors supporting the “good start” after the A-share Festival, and will also alleviate market concerns. From the perspective of investment, the undervalued stocks with the intersection of “steady growth” and “double carbon” deserve attention.
Xun Yugen, chief strategist of Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that the market of A-Shares in spring is expected, and the probability of A-Shares in 2022 will be a shock rather than a bear market.
For what kind of market will go out in February, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) chief strategic analyst Zhang Xia predicted that after rapid adjustment, the market is expected to rebound locally around the “stable growth” expectation of old and new infrastructure and the direction of independent prosperity, but after the rebound, it will continue to build a bottom and wait for a new turning point signal.
layout underestimation direction
Based on the current situation, how should future investors choose the layout?
Qin Peijing suggested to actively lay out high-quality blue chips around the “two low positions”: first, the varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be relatively low, including aviation, hotels, and the midstream manufacturing industry suppressed by cost problems in the early stage, such as automobiles and photovoltaic wind power equipment; The second is the varieties with relatively low valuation, including high-quality developers, building materials and home furnishing enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, Hong Kong stock Internet leaders after the impact, and fine chemical enterprises with new business development capabilities such as new materials.
Wang Hanfeng said: “at present, we should pay attention to three directions: first, the areas potentially supported by marginal policy changes, including infrastructure and real estate related industrial chains (construction, building materials, household appliances and home furnishings) , securities companies, etc; Second, the middle and lower reaches of consumer areas, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, the Internet, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, medicine, etc; Third, the manufacturing growth sector with a large increase last year has not yet reached the time to fully intervene, and the potential layout time point may be at the beginning of the second quarter. “
Lin rongxiong, in combination with the performance forecast of the 2021 annual report of listed companies, said that the internal fundamental differentiation of the high boom track has begun to appear. The leading companies with global industrial competitiveness and dominant position in the industrial chain can best benefit from the high boom of the industry. The companies with low valuation and increasingly prominent competitive advantages are the preferred varieties for investment. In February, the industry configuration recommended new energy, electronics, automobiles, food and beverage, computers, chemicals, banks and securities companies.
