Are waiting for the opening of a shares.
A shares are about to usher in the first trading day of the year of the tiger, and the market is looking forward to a “good start”, mainly because the overseas markets are collectively stronger during the holiday, the three major indexes of US stocks have increased by more than 1%, and the performance of Hong Kong stocks is stronger. The Hang Seng Index rose by more than 3% on the first trading day, and other Asian stock markets are also very strong. The cumulative gains of Japan and South Korea stock markets reached 2.7% and 3.3% respectively.
From the perspective of liquidity after the Spring Festival, cash withdrawal after the Spring Festival will greatly increase the liquidity of the banking system. At the same time, on February 5, the national development and Reform Commission set the tone that there were many uncertain factors in the first quarter of this year. We should appropriately move the policy starting point forward, make early arrangements, start early and achieve early results, respond to various challenges with a stable economic operation situation, and speed up the introduction of a series of policies and measures to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand.
It is noteworthy that under the expectation of interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States, the global bond market suffered a collapse during the Spring Festival, and the yield of us two-year Treasury bonds exceeded 1.3%, the highest level since 2020; The yield of five-year US bonds rose to 1.783%, the highest since August 2019. German five-year bond yields once stood above 0, the first time since 2018; The yield of two-year UK bonds was close to the highest level in 11 years.
Specific to the sector, the performance of the trillion new energy track dominated by electric vehicles after the festival may be worth looking forward to. Byd Company Limited(002594) in January 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 93168, with a year-on-year increase of 362%, which alleviated the market’s concern about the decline of subsidies to a certain extent. Affected by this, Byd Company Limited(002594) H shares soared by more than 7% on the first trading day of the year of the tiger, ideal automobile soared by more than 12%, and Xiaopeng automobile soared by 11%.
on the first trading day of the year of the tiger, how do A-Shares go?
During the Spring Festival, the overseas market strengthened as a whole, especially the Hong Kong stock market staged a major counterattack, which brought imagination to the A-shares that are about to open.
First, let’s look at US stocks. During the Spring Festival, US stocks stabilized and rebounded as a whole. Dow Jones industrial, S & P 500 and Nasdaq all recorded increases, with cumulative increases of 1.89%, 1.55% and 1.05% respectively. Popular Chinese concept stocks also rose sharply.
During this period, the technology sector of US stocks fluctuated greatly and differentiated significantly. The performance of Internet giant Facebook (meta) fell by 26.39% in one day, but Amazon and snap rose sharply under the catalysis of strong performance. Under the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s contraction of liquidity, the science and technology growth style of US stocks is changing, and the market pays more and more attention to performance growth.
Looking at Hong Kong stocks, the market was closed for three days after half a day of trading on New Year’s Eve, and the market opened on February 4, ushering in a good start to the year of the tiger. The Hang Seng index opened higher and went higher, closing up sharply by 3.24%, and the Hang Seng technology index also rose by more than 3%. Among them, heavyweights rose significantly as a whole, with ideal car up 12%, Xiaopeng car up 11%, Byd Company Limited(002594) up more than 7%, Alibaba up more than 5%, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) up more than 4%, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and meituan up more than 3%. In terms of sectors, gains were led by automobiles, non essential consumer stocks and financial stocks.
In addition, other Asian stock markets are also very strong. The cumulative gains of Japan’s Nikkei 225 index and South Korea composite index reached 2.7% and 3.26% respectively.
From the performance of peripheral markets, it is worth looking forward to a good start. From the perspective of capital, recently, the US dollar index has continued to decline, and the allocation direction of global funds may be reversed again. With the decline of risk aversion during the long holiday, it is also conducive to the return of two financial funds to the market.
on the news side, there were two important expectations in the overseas market during the Spring Festival holiday. First, the European Central Bank suddenly released a tightening signal, and the Bank of England started raising interest rates; The second expected difference is that the US non-agricultural employment data was unexpectedly strong, with 467000 new non-agricultural employment in January, along with 709000 revised in the previous two months, which greatly exceeded market expectations. It means that the new round of omic velvet epidemic has not hindered the recovery of American employment.
Therefore, with the decline of the omic cashmere epidemic, full employment in the U.S. labor market is just around the corner, which also means that the Fed’s interest rate hike is certain, and the market generally expects that the Fed will raise interest rates four times this year.
Under these two expectations, the overseas markets will still play a game between the recovery of fundamentals and the tightening of policies after the festival, and the risk of upward inflation will not be alleviated in the first half of 2022.
For China, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) it is expected that A-Shares will rebound after the festival, but the trend of the follow-up market still depends on whether the expectation of fundamental improvement or policy overweight can be fulfilled.
the global bond market collapsed
During the Spring Festival holiday, the overseas bond market fluctuated violently, or affected the trend of the follow-up market to a certain extent.
First, as an important benchmark interest rate in the world, the yield of us two-year Treasury bonds rose 11 basis points, breaking through 1.3%, the highest level since the beginning of 2020. In addition, the yield of five-year US bonds rose to 1.783%, a new high since August 2019, and the yield of ten-year US bonds rose to 1.9%, a new high since December 2019.
At the same time, the European bond market also suffered a sell-off. Among them, the yield of German five-year treasury bonds soared by 13 basis points and closed above 0 for the first time since 2018. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond rose 6.3 basis points to 0.227% during the session, approaching the high in January 2019.
In addition, the two-year UK bond yield rose 11.8 basis points to 1.262%, once to 1.283%, approaching the highest level in 11 years. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose 4.3 basis points to 1.411%.
The sharp selling of European and American bond markets may be an early response to the monetary policies of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve.
On February 3, the Bank of England announced that it would raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5%, and began the process of quantitative tightening. This is the first time that the Bank of England has raised interest rates at consecutive meetings since 2004.
On the same day, the European Central Bank hinted at a shift to hawkish positions. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that the inflation risk “tends to rise” and does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates this year. Last month, she also believed that raising interest rates was “very unlikely”.
As soon as this remark came out, the market expected the rate increase of the European Central Bank by the end of this year to 25 basis points from 12 basis points.
In the context of non farm employment data exceeding expectations, the Fed’s interest rate hike in mid March is almost a deterministic event. The market even expects that the Fed will raise interest rates more than five times this year, 25 basis points each time.
Back to China’s policy, the probability will continue to maintain independence and stability. Liu Guoqiang, vice governor of the central bank, pointed out at the press conference of the state information office a few days ago that the current key goal is stability and the policy requirement is force. We should expand the monetary policy toolbox to keep the total amount stable and avoid credit collapse.
In addition, from the perspective of liquidity after the Spring Festival, cash withdrawal after the Spring Festival will greatly increase the liquidity of the banking system.
Therefore, there is no need to worry about the liquidity probability after the market Festival.
trillion track will make a comeback?
Specific to the sector, the performance of the new energy sector dominated by electric vehicles after the festival may be worth looking forward to.
On February 3, Byd Company Limited(002594) announced in the Hong Kong stock exchange that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in January 2022 reached 93168, compared with 20178 in the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of 361.73%.
This report card obviously exceeded market expectations. According to the notice jointly issued by the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology and the development and Reform Commission, the subsidy standard of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile will decline by 30% from 2021 from January 1, 2022. Therefore, the market is worried that the sales growth of new energy vehicles may slow down in 2022. Therefore, this sales report card of Byd Company Limited(002594) is very important and alleviates the market’s concern to a certain extent.
On the second trading day of Byd Company Limited(002594) disclosure announcement, Byd Company Limited(002594) H shares soared by more than 7%, ideal automobile soared by more than 12%, and Xiaopeng automobile soared by 11%. New energy vehicle stocks in the US stock market also rose collectively. During the Spring Festival, ideal vehicles rose nearly 20%, Xiaopeng automobile rose nearly 16%, Weilai rose nearly 15% and Tesla rose more than 9%.
In addition, according to a field visit by the securities times, on the eve of the Spring Festival, new energy vehicles ushered in a wave of sales boom. Xiaopeng P5 can deliver the car 2-3 months after signing the contract, or the limited production capacity and sales volume have soared. Some P5 owners have waited for 4 months without mentioning the car; Byd Company Limited(002594) Qin plus DMI is also hard to find. Many consumers need to wait 4-5 months to pick up the car.
For the sales forecast of new energy vehicles in 2022, the passenger Federation will increase the sales forecast of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022 from 4.8 million to 5.5 million, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022 is expected to reach about 25%.
Song Xinnan, an analyst at Hongta Securities Co.Ltd(601236) , believes that due to the high base brought by the rapid growth in 2021, the growth rate of new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline significantly, but based on the strong demand in the downstream, it may still maintain a high growth rate in 2022.
Whether the trillion new energy track of A-Shares can make a comeback is worth looking forward to.
1600 billion fell sharply, and the meta universe is facing the test
The probability of the yuan universe, which continues to explode before the festival, will face a wave of tests.
The epic slump of American “metauniverse” and Internet giant mate (Facebook) has triggered concerns about the future of metauniverse. According to the latest financial report disclosed by mate, mate’s “Yuan universe business” had a net loss of US $10.19 billion (about 64.8 billion yuan) in 2021.
The performance “Thunderstorm” directly triggered a stock price avalanche. On February 3, after the opening of U.S. stocks, mate’s share price plunged by more than 26%, and the total market value evaporated by about $252 billion (about 1602.8 billion yuan), setting the largest single day market value decline of a single company in the history of the U.S. stock market.
The money burning speed of yuancosmos may be a risk worried by the market. It can be predicted that mate’s yuancosmos business will not contribute net profit for a long time in the future, which will continue to drag down the company’s cash flow. Some Wall Street analysts said that since the meta universe is not clearly defined, meta may need to spend “tons of cash”.
This fear does not rule out the possibility of transmission to a shares. The concept of meta universe, which has been sought after by the market, may face a test. According to the data, there are 50 constituent stocks in the meta universe theme index, with a total market value of 2.7 trillion yuan.
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