Today (February 7), on the first trading day of the year of the tiger of a shares, the three major stock indexes opened higher, and then the Shanghai index maintained a high shock consolidation pattern. After the sharp pull of the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index at the beginning, they plunged back rapidly, and the rise narrowed further. From the disk point of view, oil, natural gas and other sectors led the rise, and the market of “coal flying and steel splashing” reappeared. The infrastructure targets led by cement and building materials also had a strong trend, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that China’s economic prosperity fell slightly, the steady growth policy is expected to continue to rise, the overseas market generally recovered during the long holiday, and the A-share market is expected to stabilize and rebound.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme I] coal
Huabao securities mentioned that China’s demand for coking coal is expected to decrease by 3% in 2022, and the output of coking coal will increase by about 4 million tons. The overall supply and demand of overseas coking coal is in tight balance. Considering that the import of coking coal is an important factor in adjusting the supply and that coking coal has little impact on people’s livelihood, we tend to think that on the supply side, the increase of Mongolia’s import will reduce the total import from other regions to a certain extent, and the increase of overseas import is generally cautious. According to the overall calculation, the tight situation of coking coal supply and demand will be alleviated and the supply and demand will be balanced in 2022. Based on 2022, the supply and demand of coking coal is in balance as a whole. It is estimated that the central price of Mysteel China coking coal price index is 1500 yuan / ton, and the central price of Xinhua Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) long-term association price index is 1200 yuan / ton.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that under the long-term logic, the cycle fluctuation of the coal industry will be weakened and the profit space will be stable. In the long run, the limited factors of coal supply are still, the bottleneck of supply growth is obvious, the enthusiasm of coal enterprises to invest in new mines is weak, and the economy is poor, the long construction cycle of new production capacity and complicated approval procedures restrict the growth of coal production capacity, The dual carbon background determines that the coal supply will remain stable, and Sanxi and Xinjiang regions with excellent resource endowment will be strong. Enterprises with layout in such regions will continue to benefit from the process of increasing resource concentration. At the same time, the stability of coal price is very important to the healthy development of the whole industry, the periodicity of the industry is weakened, and the profit stability is enhanced, The good cash flow situation of coal enterprises in recent years has also laid a solid foundation for the in-depth development of some coal enterprises to new energy, new materials and industries.
In the short and medium term, investment opportunities in the coal sector are prominent. The policy of increasing coal production and ensuring supply is expected to exit after the coal price is stable. Superimposed on the arduous task of six guarantees and six stabilities of macro-economy in 2022, the phased and regional economic stimulus policies may further stimulate the improvement of the enthusiasm of upstream resource products procurement and promote the investment sentiment and return on investment of the coal sector.
In addition, the transformation and development has become a highlight of coal enterprises. Power coal will face the pattern of double increase in supply and demand in the future, so as to achieve a basic balance; Coking coal sector in the future for some time or both supply and demand decline; The coke sector may realize a tight balance between supply and demand on the basis of further contraction of supply. As the basic energy, coal still plays the role of ballast in the process of energy structure transformation, which is indispensable. Based on the solid foundation of coal enterprises and the new direction of material industry transformation in the future, vertical enterprises have become the main direction of new energy industry. []
[Theme 2] steel
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that we calculated that the year-on-year negative growth rate of steel demand in November 2021 once reached 20% (calculated by output after inventory correction). The steady growth policy is expected to make the growth rate of steel demand rise periodically, and promote the price of steel industry chain to continue the oversold rebound since the end of 2021. The trading window is mainly in the first half of the year. From the perspective of the supply side, there is great uncertainty in the administrative production restriction of iron and steel after the first quarter. Therefore, under the background of demand repair, the elasticity of iron ore may be better. We can pay attention to iron ore companies Hbis Resources Co.Ltd(000923) , Inner Mongolia Dazhong Mining Co.Ltd(001203) in the first half of the year. From a longer time dimension, after the steady growth pulse in spring, the demand may weaken again. In terms of time and amplitude, this round of real estate downward cycle still needs to be completed. Pay attention to the industrial callback risk in the second half of the year. In the long run, the concentration of ordinary steel industry shows an upward trend, and the industry leader Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) benefits from the long-term rise of the industry’s bargaining power. In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to some stocks that have the logic of increasing market share or need to benefit from emerging industries, such as Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) .
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that the recovery of manufacturing demand superimposes the background of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the profit logic of the steel industry has been reconstructed, and the steel enterprises have further benefited from the cyclical rotation. We are still optimistic about the steel sector for a long time. The national defense, military industry and aerospace industry have a broad domestic substitution space, and products such as superalloy, special stainless steel and ultra-high strength steel occupy an absolute dominant position. It is suggested to focus on the performance of the interim report and the special steel leader who can fulfill the high-profile of the industry: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; Traditional field leaders + popular emerging business targets are more favored by the market. It is suggested to focus on stainless steel rods and wires and mica lithium extraction leaders: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ; And the high growth leader in the field of cold rolled stainless steel: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) . []
[Theme 3] colored
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said that as the demand of new energy industry continues to improve in 2022, the central probability of lithium price will remain high in the whole year of 22 years. When the market sees that the price of lithium salt continues to be strong and gradually expects the price formation, it will focus on the performance improvement brought by the enterprise’s expansion of its own alpha. This is also the logic that we have always mentioned that the lithium sector is “volume” rather than “price” in the long term. We are still firmly optimistic about the allocation value of lithium sector in the whole year of 22, and we suggest paying attention to the performance forecast period in 2022.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that the gap between supply and demand widened again at the end of the year, and the price of cobalt and lithium accelerated upward. (1) Lithium: some manufacturers shut down for maintenance at the end of the year, the output of lithium carbonate fell for nine consecutive weeks, and the gap between supply and demand is still widening. Since the beginning of the year, the lithium hydroxide inventory has continued to decline. The retail of new energy vehicles and the production scheduling of cathode materials in November show that the demand side maintains a high boom and maintains the bullish view of lithium price; (2) Nickel: the purchase demand of nickel salt downstream factories is poor, and the increase of quotation further affects the purchase enthusiasm. The market is mainly wait-and-see, and the upward space of nickel sulfate price is under pressure; (3) Cobalt: the precursor and four cobalt manufacturers may have some replenishment due to the adjustment of production plan. The rhythm of goods collection in the downstream years ago is gradually rising, and the superimposed head enterprises reduce output, and the cobalt price is expected to continue to rise. []
[theme 4] oil price related
Minsheng Securities said that the supply and demand of the global crude oil market will maintain a tight balance in 2022: (1) supply side: the idle capacity is limited, and the supply increment is less than expected.
(2) Demand side: the impact of the epidemic has been effectively controlled, and the demand is expected to exceed the pre epidemic level. According to OPEC’s monthly report in January 2022, the global demand for crude oil is expected to reach 100.79 million barrels / day in 2022, exceeding the demand of 100.10 million barrels in 2019. To sum up, we believe that in 2022, the fundamentals of global crude oil supply and demand are expected to continue to maintain a tight balance, which will continue to drive the upward fluctuation of crude oil prices.
The agency further analyzed that the crude oil price may continue to fluctuate upward in 2022 and remain at a medium high level throughout the year. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to the upstream crude oil mining industry whose profitability benefits from the rise of crude oil and the oil service industry which benefits from the increase of capital expenditure under high oil prices. We suggest paying attention to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) with new crude oil mining and sales business.
In addition, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that CNOOC Energy Economics Research Institute released China’s marine energy development report 2021, which pointed out that China’s marine crude oil production increment exceeded 80% of the national increment, and the output will continue to increase in 2022; CNOOC released its business strategy for 2022, proposing that the net output in 2021 will reach 570 million barrels of oil equivalent, and the net output target in 2022 is 600-610 million barrels of oil equivalent. Marine energy will become a new bright spot in China’s energy output growth. []
