Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) : the risk of bad debt provision in the industry is released, and the infrastructure sector is expected to usher in performance and valuation repair
We expect the infrastructure chain to grow steadily and counter cyclical adjustment to boost demand. Recently, the central government mentioned that the new special debt focuses on water conservancy, transportation, municipal infrastructure construction, affordable housing projects and other fields. The Ministry of water resources mentioned the implementation of major projects of the national water network. We expect the construction of underground pipe network and sponge city to bring sustainable increment during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The completion end of the real estate remained resilient, but the new construction and sales remained weak. In terms of real estate, the easing signal has been gradually released, and the bottom of the policy has been found. We expect that the financing end of subsequent real estate enterprises and consumers is expected to be slightly relaxed. In addition, accelerating the construction of affordable rental housing during the 14th Five Year Plan period will bring some increment. Previously, the valuation of the decoration and building materials sector has been in the lower position of the historical center due to the slowdown in demand, the rise of raw materials and cash flow pressure. With the relaxation of expectations on the edge of real estate, the decline of high raw material costs, and the gradual release of bad debt provision and cash flow risk expectations, the overall sector is expected to usher in performance and valuation repair. It is recommended to pay attention to Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , and China Liansu, Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) . []
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: in 2022, the building materials industry mainly focuses on six investment directions
Cement production will decline in 2021. In 2021, the cumulative output of cement in China was 2.363 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%. In 2021, the investment in infrastructure construction increased by 0.4% year-on-year, the investment in real estate development increased by 4.4% year-on-year, and the new construction area of houses decreased by 11.4% year-on-year. Due to the support of national policies for infrastructure construction, it is expected that the investment in infrastructure construction will rise in 2022, which will benefit the cement market demand.
Glass production will increase in 2021. In 2021, the annual output of flat glass reached 1.017 billion weight boxes, with a year-on-year increase of 8.4%. In 2021, the completed area of houses increased by 11.2% year-on-year, providing strong support for the demand of the glass industry. With the arrival of spring after the year, the completion end will pick up, the glass market demand is expected to increase, and the glass price will resume the upward trend.
From the perspective of investment suggestions, the building materials industry will mainly focus on the following investment directions in 2022: (1) leading consumer building materials that benefit from the improvement of industry concentration: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , ad shares. (2) Glass fiber faucet benefiting from the increase of wind power demand: China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) . (3) Glass faucets with multi business layout Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) . (4) Regional leaders of cement industry Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) benefiting from the recovery of infrastructure investment. (5) The production capacity of high-purity quartz sand is Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) . (6) Benefiting from the increased demand for ceramic fibers Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) . []
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : two main lines of investment optimization in the construction industry in 2022
In 2022, there are two main lines for investment optimization in the construction industry – capital construction, new energy capital construction and steel structure for prefabricated buildings. It is suggested to pay attention to the central enterprises of traditional buildings: 1) optimize the central enterprises of new energy capital construction: China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) . The world’s top 2 energy and power construction enterprises have deeply benefited from the large-scale construction of new energy under the “double carbon” strategy. The performance of the “14th five year plan” is high, and the growth is determined to be high. The value of the installed assets of wind and solar power generation in hand is expected to be revalued.
2) optional building steel structure track Faucet: Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) . Under the “double carbon 1 + n” policy system, fabricated steel structure has an advantageous development pattern with lower carbon emission intensity. In 2022, government investment in infrastructure, public construction and other fields is expected to make great efforts. As a leading enterprise in the two major subsidiaries of steel structure manufacturing and Engineering in China, β+α Resonance, optimistic about the performance of Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) in 2022.
3) pay attention to traditional infrastructure central enterprises: China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) . During the 12th Five Year Plan period and the 13th Five Year Plan period, China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) and other traditional “iron public base” construction central enterprises strategically arranged “big municipal” and “big city construction”, landed in cities and realized business structure adjustment and transformation. The above-mentioned enterprises are expected to benefit from the development of urban agglomeration and urban internal infrastructure. []
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : the upward expectation of “steady growth” often raises the cement valuation in stages
The valuation of short-term cement stocks may usher in repair, a game of certainty and uncertainty. Certainty: 1) in 2022h1, the capital construction investment will be determined, or contribute to the demand increment; 2) Investment growth in areas such as affordable rental housing, education investment and health investment is highly deterministic, which can also contribute to the increase of demand. 3) By the end of 2021, the national po42 5. The average price of cement is 560 yuan / ton, the highest level in the same period since 2015. Entering the off-season at a historical high price means that if the price level of 22q2 peak season is further improved, the profits of cement enterprises will have greater upward space.
Uncertainty: real estate is the most important downstream demand area of the cement industry, and the pressure trend of new construction area of real estate is relatively clear; However, there is still a large demand for cement in the construction of the main structure. Under the dual factors of the current high construction area and the constraints of the “guaranteed delivery building” policy, the demand for cement still has a certain support. Overall, real estate has a negative impact on cement demand, but there is limited downward space for demand.
From the perspective of investment suggestions, the expectation of “steady growth” is expected to rise. From historical experience, the expectation of “steady growth” will often raise the cement valuation stage by stage. It is suggested to arrange short-term valuation repair opportunities for cement stocks. Subject recommendation: Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ; Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) 。 []
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) : it is recommended to focus on the sectors of cement, waterproof early cycle and pipe related to the advance of beneficiary finance and the investment of special bonds
It is recommended to invest in the relevant cement, waterproof early cycle and pipe sectors with the benefit of financial advance and special bonds. The special bond investment focuses on the construction of water conservancy pipelines. The demand for pipes is expected to rise in 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to the upward logic of the bottom of the industry and recommend Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) .
At present, the valuation of the cement sector is in a low position. It is suggested to focus on grasping the bottom layout opportunity.
Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) cement leader in East China, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) improved corporate governance, and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) industry leader. The logic of increasing the concentration of water reducing agent has been strongly confirmed, which is expected to benefit from the recovery of infrastructure construction. It is recommended to Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) . In addition, waterproof and concrete products also deserve attention. []
Huachuang Securities: it is expected that the infrastructure is expected to achieve good growth in the first quarter, and pay attention to the building materials related sectors downstream of the infrastructure
We believe that real estate chain building materials are expected to benefit from the marginal improvement of real estate demand and the accelerated construction of affordable housing. We will continue to recommend real estate chain consumer building materials companies, and the market share will continue to focus on leading companies in the future. We recommend Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , which have strong anti risk ability, expanding business boundary and increasing market share. We suggest paying attention to Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) 、 Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) ； Changxing infrastructure is expected to increase steadily. At the end of 2021, the central working conference proposed that the economy in 2022 should “take the lead in stability and strive for progress while maintaining stability”. In terms of rhythm, 1.46 trillion local special bonds have been approved in advance in December 2021. It is expected that the physical workload will be formed in the first quarter of 2022, driving the commencement of infrastructure construction in early 2022. It is expected that the infrastructure is expected to achieve good growth in the first quarter, Pay attention to the building materials related sectors downstream of infrastructure construction, and continue to recommend cement, water reducing agent and pipe materials.
Guosheng Securities: focus on the main line of steady growth! Recommended undervalued blue chip and business elasticity direction
Recently, a series of management policies have continuously demonstrated China’s determination to stabilize growth. Infrastructure, as a government led investment field, is expected to take effect in a short term and play a pillar role in stabilizing growth. The infrastructure boom is expected to improve. The key points are: 1) undervalued blue chips: the current overall valuation of infrastructure blue chips is at the lowest range in history, and the expected improvement of infrastructure is expected to promote valuation repair, Focus on recommending central construction enterprises China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , and infrastructure design leaders China Design Group Co.Ltd(603018) ; 2) Four directions with high business elasticity: a) affordable housing: the development of affordable rental housing is expected to enter an accelerated period, with emphasis on Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , Shenzhen Ridge Engineering Consulting Co.Ltd(300977) ; b) Steel structure: steel structure continues to benefit from the accelerated investment in infrastructure, manufacturing and affordable housing. At the same time, the development of bapv / BIPV brings incremental demand to the industry. It is recommended that Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) ; c) New power system: the new infrastructure represented by new energy infrastructure has great demand and high investment efficiency, and is expected to become the focus of the follow-up. It is expected to recommend and pay attention to the leaders Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) of central enterprises in power infrastructure, the leader of private distribution network EPCO Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) , and the expert of enterprise energy efficiency control Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) ; d) Urban pipe network: the demand for energy-saving transformation of urban heat supply network is expected to accelerate, and the leader in heating energy saving Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) is recommended. []
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) : at present, the valuation of the building materials industry is relatively low and the safety margin is high
Current key recommendations: (1) cement sector: under the current background of steady growth, local bonds are issued in advance, infrastructure investment is moderately advanced, and cement demand is expected to be better. At the macro level, the national development and Reform Commission emphasizes efforts to expand effective investment in the manufacturing industry, encourage moderately advanced infrastructure investment, and accelerate the transformation of energy conservation and carbon reduction in the traditional construction industry, which will help to optimize the supply pattern of the industry and enhance the competitive advantage of leading industries. (2) Glass fiber sector: in the short term, the demand for alkali free yarn and electronic yarn maintains stable operation, and there is little room for market price adjustment before the Spring Festival. In the medium and long term, the macro level will continue to promote the large-scale and high-quality development of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation, and the future demand for wind power will be better. From the supply side, the growth of medium and long-term glass fiber production capacity is limited, and the high prosperity of glass fiber industry is expected to continue. (3) Glass sector: under the background of double carbon policy, photovoltaic glass ushers in demand support. At the same time, the continuous improvement of double glass penetration also brings new growth rate to photovoltaic glass. However, affordable Internet access promotes industrial cost reduction and efficiency increase, puts forward higher requirements for enterprise technology and cost control, and benefits industry leaders with technology and cost advantages. At present, the valuation of the building materials industry is relatively low and the safety margin is high. []
