Today (February 7), A-Shares welcomed the "good start" of the year of the tiger. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened significantly higher across the board. The Shanghai index opened directly at the 3400 point integer mark and fluctuated upward, then maintained a high shock, while the gem index rose and fell, dragging down the performance of the Shenzhen composite index. However, on the whole, it still closed in red.
In this regard, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that China's economic prosperity fell slightly, the steady growth policy is expected to continue to heat up, the overseas market generally warmed up during the long holiday, and the A-share market is expected to stabilize and rebound.
At the same time, the agency further analyzed that in early March, the "two sessions" paid attention to agricultural issues as usual, and factors such as policy, weather and cost were favorable for the rise of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices. After the epidemic factors gradually subside, the prosperity of tourism and transportation industries is expected to rebound. China's policy of stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand is conducive to the marginal improvement of the real estate and automobile industries. It is suggested to maintain a position of 80%, focusing on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, consumer services, transportation, automobile, real estate and other industries.
sector:
I. infrastructure
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that recently, the central government mentioned the new special debt, focusing on water conservancy, transportation, municipal infrastructure construction, affordable housing projects and other fields. The Ministry of water resources mentioned the implementation of major projects of the national water network. We expect the construction of underground pipe network and sponge city to bring sustainable increment during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The completion end of the real estate remained resilient, but the new construction and sales remained weak. In terms of real estate, the easing signal has been gradually released, and the bottom of the policy has been found. We expect that the financing end of subsequent real estate enterprises and consumers is expected to be slightly relaxed. In addition, accelerating the construction of affordable rental housing during the 14th Five Year Plan period will bring some increment. Previously, the valuation of the decoration and building materials sector has been in the lower position of the historical center due to the slowdown in demand, the rise of raw materials and cash flow pressure. With the relaxation of expectations on the edge of real estate, the decline of high raw material costs, and the gradual release of bad debt provision and cash flow risk expectations, the overall sector is expected to usher in performance and valuation repair.
According to China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities, the building materials industry will mainly focus on the following investment directions in 2022: (1) the leading consumer building materials enterprises benefiting from the improvement of industry concentration: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , ad shares. (2) Glass fiber faucet benefiting from the increase of wind power demand: China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) . (3) Glass faucets with multi business layout Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) . (4) Regional leaders of cement industry Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) benefiting from the recovery of infrastructure investment. (5) The production capacity of high-purity quartz sand is Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) . (6) Benefiting from the increased demand for ceramic fibers Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) .
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) pointed out that there are two main lines for investment in the construction industry in 2022 - infrastructure development, new energy infrastructure and fabricated buildings, steel structure. It is suggested to pay attention to the central enterprises of traditional buildings: 1) optimize the central enterprises of new energy infrastructure: China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) . The world's top 2 energy and power construction enterprises have deeply benefited from the large-scale construction of new energy under the "double carbon" strategy. The performance of the "14th five year plan" is high, and the growth is determined to be high. The value of the installed assets of wind and solar power generation in hand is expected to be revalued.
2) optional building steel structure track Faucet: Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) . Under the "double carbon 1 + n" policy system, fabricated steel structure has an advantageous development pattern with lower carbon emission intensity. In 2022, government investment in infrastructure, public construction and other fields is expected to make great efforts. As a leading enterprise in the two major subsidiaries of steel structure manufacturing and Engineering in China, β+α Resonance, optimistic about the performance of Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) and Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) in 2022.
3) pay attention to traditional infrastructure central enterprises: China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) . During the 12th Five Year Plan period and the 13th Five Year Plan period, China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) and other traditional "iron public base" construction central enterprises strategically arranged "big municipal" and "big city construction", landed in cities and realized business structure adjustment and transformation. The above-mentioned enterprises are expected to benefit from the development of urban agglomeration and urban internal infrastructure.
II. Oil and gas
Minsheng Securities said that the supply and demand of the global crude oil market will maintain a tight balance in 2022: (1) supply side: the idle capacity is limited, and the supply increment is less than expected. (2) Demand side: the impact of the epidemic has been effectively controlled, and the demand is expected to exceed the pre epidemic level. According to OPEC's monthly report in January 2022, the global demand for crude oil is expected to reach 100.79 million barrels / day in 2022, exceeding the demand of 100.10 million barrels in 2019. To sum up, we believe that in 2022, the fundamentals of global crude oil supply and demand are expected to continue to maintain a tight balance, which will continue to drive the upward fluctuation of crude oil prices.
The agency further analyzed that the crude oil price may continue to fluctuate upward in 2022 and remain at a medium high level throughout the year. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to the upstream crude oil mining industry whose profitability benefits from the rise of crude oil and the oil service industry which benefits from the increase of capital expenditure under high oil prices. We suggest paying attention to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) with new crude oil mining and sales business.
In addition, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that CNOOC Energy Economics Research Institute released China's marine energy development report 2021, which pointed out that China's marine crude oil production increment exceeded 80% of the national increment, and the output will continue to increase in 2022; CNOOC released its business strategy for 2022, proposing that the net output in 2021 will reach 570 million barrels of oil equivalent, and the net output target in 2022 is 600-610 million barrels of oil equivalent. Marine energy will become a new bright spot in China's energy output growth.
We expect that the overall pattern of crude oil supply and demand will be good in the future. China will continue to enhance China's energy production guarantee capacity and accelerate the development and application of advanced exploitation technologies for oil and gas and other resources. Therefore, we continue to be optimistic about the prosperity of the oil and gas sector. It is suggested to pay attention to the following subscripts: first, the upstream sector, PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) ; Second, oil service sector, China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) , Cnooc Energy Technology & Services Limited(600968) , Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation(600871) , Bomesc Offshore Engineering Company Limited(603727) ; Third, large private refining and chemical sector, Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ; Fourth, light hydrocarbon cracking sector, satellite chemistry and Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) ; Fifth, coal to olefins, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ; The sixth and third largest chemical white horse, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) and Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) .
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