The long Spring Festival holiday is drawing to a close, and the year of the tiger market of A-Shares will officially start tomorrow. At the market level, investors have predicted the probability of a “good start” through the performance of the peripheral market stock index during the long holiday and the market after the A-share Festival over the years; Falling on individual stocks, the monthly gold stocks of securities companies also received high attention. However, gold stocks did not seem to perform very well in January this year.
01
gold stocks fell in January
Due to the slightly depressed market performance, the performance of securities companies’ gold stocks in January was generally unsatisfactory. In the same month, the Shanghai stock index fell 7.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 10.29%, the gem index fell 12.45%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 7.62%. Under the influence of the market, almost none of the gold stock portfolios of China’s major securities companies has achieved positive returns. According to the report data of gold stock income of securities companies in each city, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) gold stock portfolio ranked first with – 3.01% income, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) and Huachuang securities ranked second and third with – 5.36% and – 7.32% income respectively, successfully outperforming the Shanghai stock index.
According to the data of China stock market news choice, from the industry track where the top ten securities companies’ gold stocks are located, institutions prefer power equipment, food and beverage, automobile, electronics, medicine and biology. From the performance of individual stocks, the top three increases were Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) (21.32%), Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) (12.69%) and Three’S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) (11.52%). Among them, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) gold stock portfolio successfully bet on Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) and Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) , and China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) bet on Three’S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) . The first three stocks that fell were Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) (- 36.17%), Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) (- 32.99%) and Shinva Medical Instrument Co.Ltd(600587) (- 32.64%).
In terms of popularity, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , which was recommended by many brokerages, dropped 7.95% in January, and lost 10.90% of the Shanghai stock index, while the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) of the same Baijiu group. From the traditional Baijiu sales season this year, the demand for customers visiting and giving gifts is decreasing. Baijiu market is flat. According to Baijiu Baijiu, Xiao Zhuqing, a Baijiu expert, believes that the consumption of liquor market is relatively stable after the Spring Festival. The consumption concept of Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) is changing from impulse consumption to rational consumption. It also shows that the liquor industry is full of supply throughout the year, and the concept of consumption nodes such as Spring Festival is gradually fading.
Nevertheless, the agency’s performance in Baijiu market is still generally promising. Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) the research report pointed out that the epidemic situation in many places “broke out in scattered places”, the feedback from mobile sales channels during the Spring Festival was “flat”, and the sentiment in the capital market cooled down. But in recent years, the consumption habits of Spring Festival are very high. Consumers often buy products before gifts and drinks. The changes of Baijiu consumption are more and more dispersed.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) believes that in 2021, the higher base of Baijiu will slow down the growth of liquor enterprises in 2022, but still take the structural upgrading as the main line to achieve double profits. After investigation, it is believed that the liquor market will be stable and stable, and there is no need to be pessimistic.
02
how much “gold” does the gold stock of securities companies contain?
The overall return of the gold stock portfolio in January was lower than expected, which naturally made investors question the amount of “gold” contained in the gold stocks of securities companies. Many investors try to determine the reference value of gold stocks for ordinary investors by clarifying the screening logic of gold stocks of securities companies.
Generally speaking, analysts in various industries should first recommend 1 ~ 2 stocks with strong fundamentals, good profit space and great rising potential in the future, and then the brokerage strategy team should conduct secondary screening on the stocks recommended by the industry in combination with market research and judgment and industry comparison, select the best from the best, and launch the final monthly brokerage gold stock portfolio.
Given that the release time of gold stocks of major securities companies in China is not unified, and there is no standard paradigm, it is difficult to study the data of gold stocks of securities companies. In this regard, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) quantitative Ren Tong’s team, referring to the monthly recommended gold stock portfolio data of 43 securities companies since 2018 collected and sorted by Meishi technology, studied the characteristics of securities companies’ gold stock portfolio, income, the effect of securities companies’ gold stock release events, the correlation with fund heavy positions, and the application of securities companies’ gold stocks in industry rotation strategy. The team pointed out that since 2018, the gold stock portfolio of securities companies has significantly outperformed the broad-based indexes such as CSI 300, CSI 500 and CSI 1000, and the gold stock portfolio of a single securities company also shows a high winning rate compared with CSI 300. The portfolio income can be improved through the characteristics of gold stock pairs of securities companies.
In the 60 days before the release of securities companies’ gold shares, gold shares can obtain a very significant excess return on average, and can obtain an average excess return of 2.98% 60 days after the event, which can improve the event effect according to the different characteristics of gold shares.
In addition, the gold stocks recommended by the seller will attract the attention of the buyer’s organization for a period of time and become the heavy positions of some funds; For the stocks that appear in the gold stock portfolio for the first time in nearly a year, they are more likely to become heavy warehouse stocks of the fund in the next fund periodic reporting period.
The industry rotation strategy designed according to the gold stock portfolio can significantly beat the benchmark portfolio, which shows that the gold stock portfolio of securities companies has a certain indicating effect on the industry configuration.
03
February gold stock outlook
According to the data of China stock market news choice, among the gold stock targets of the top ten securities companies in February, Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) has become the common choice of Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) , open source securities and Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) . Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) pointed out that the gold boom has risen since the second half of 2020 due to the stimulation of risk aversion + aesthetic demand; The industry is in the stage of accelerating brand concentration; The breakthrough of gold technology has driven the increase of brand and product premium. The popularity of gufajin has triggered the trend of transparent pricing from piece to gram, which is expected to accelerate the industry into the stage of improving brand pricing power. At the company level, grasp the trend of accelerating the liquidation of the industry, Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) provincial agents, optimize the channel mode and enter a new expansion period; As a highly enterprising jewelry enterprise, it has been paying attention to product R & D and store management output in recent 10 years, strengthening brand characteristics and competitive differentiation; The provincial agency mechanism at the channel side is adjusted to improve the distribution of gold and establish scale advantages. The product side is based on the experience of inlaid distribution model to speed up the layout of gold serialization. The establishment of the advantages of gold products is expected to exceed the market expectations.
In addition to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , this ancestral “sweet cake” is still favored by major securities companies in China, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) and Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) escort Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) at the same time; The Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) of traditional Chinese medicine was recommended by Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) and Kaiyuan securities; Individual stocks such as Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) have also been recommended by two securities companies.
It is worth mentioning that the presence of the financial sector in the February gold stock list is not low. In addition to Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) are also recommended by different securities companies. According to the judgment of Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) , the liquidity environment in 2022 is generally stable and structurally broad. Continue to recommend 1) retail banks with better development of asset management business, mainly in a wide credit environment. This kind of bank asset management business is expected to achieve leapfrog development; 2) For banks suppressed by real estate credit risk in the early stage, under the policy correction, the valuation repair can be expected.
For the future market, Bohai Securities pointed out that reviewing the performance of the stable growth sector in the process of seven rounds of “wide credit” in history, the consumption sector can obtain significant excess returns and has obvious sustainability because of its defensive attribute; At the same time, stable investment mainly focuses on the transformation from real estate to infrastructure. Under the background of the recent two rounds of “wide credit”, infrastructure has also obtained a certain excess return, but we need to pay attention to the rhythm; In addition, in view of the pessimistic expectation of the market on the real estate policy, the “policy bottom” has been gradually confirmed since September last year. Under the expectation of “steady growth”, the real estate is expected to usher in the valuation repair market.
