In 2021, China's high-quality economic development achieved new results and achieved a good start in the 14th five year plan. In 2022, how should we view the macroeconomic situation? How to treat the hot issues concerned by the market?
Relevant experts interviewed by Xinhua News Agency recently believe that China's macro-economy has not changed, the steady growth policy is expected to continue to be introduced, more investment opportunities will emerge in China's high-quality economic development, the real estate market will maintain steady and healthy development, and the development prospect of China's capital market will be good for a long time.
the trend of China's macroeconomic stability and improvement has not changed
Q: at present, the difficulties and challenges facing economic development have increased. How should we view the macroeconomic situation this year?
Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China: Although China's economy is facing the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation, the trend of macroeconomic stability and improvement has not changed this year. The continuously decreasing unemployment rate, basically stable price level, stable macro leverage ratio, continuously strengthened scientific and technological innovation, continuously improved international competitiveness and comprehensively strengthened human capital all determine that China's economic growth potential is continuously strengthened. China's economy is still expected to maintain rapid growth in 2022.
Peng Wensheng, chief economist: in the medium and long term, we still have confidence in China's economic development potential. At present, China's economic development does face some challenges. However, the central economic work conference put forward the idea of "keeping stability at the head and seeking progress while maintaining stability", emphasizing "taking economic construction as the center", which shows that relatively sufficient preparations have been made at the policy level. Generally speaking, there is a time difference from the introduction of policies to the appearance of effects, but it will not be too long. Therefore, the approximate rate of economic growth in 2022 is low before and high after.
Shen Jianguang, chief economist of JD group: in the second half of 2021, with the interweaving of multiple shocks, the downward pressure on China's economy increased, but China still achieved an economic growth of 8.1% throughout the year, ranking among the top among the world's major economies, demonstrating great development vitality and resilience. Looking forward to 2022, exports, foreign investment, green investment, high-tech investment and digital economy will still provide solid support for China's high-quality economic development. In the medium and long term, with the in-depth promotion of the important reform and opening-up tasks deployed in the outline of the 14th five year plan and the acceleration of the construction of a new development pattern, China's economic vitality will continue to increase and achieve steady improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity.
the policy of steady growth is expected to continue
Q: at present, the market pays more attention to the introduction of policies in the economic field. How should we treat it?
Liu Yuanchun: the central economic work conference stressed that the adjustment of policies and the promotion of reform should grasp the timing and efficiency, and adhere to the principle of standing first and then breaking down, steady and steady. Judging from the current policy introduction, the signal of "stability" is obvious: first, the connotation of prudent monetary policy has been moderately adjusted, policies such as reducing reserve requirements and interest rates have been implemented, and Inclusive Finance has been further strengthened; Second, the proactive fiscal policy was launched ahead of schedule, and the new special debt limit of 1.46 trillion yuan in 2022 was issued to all localities in advance; Third, at present, the investment growth rate in 2022 announced by most provinces and cities in the local government work report is higher than that of GDP, and the scale of infrastructure investment is moderately advanced; Fourth, the general office of the State Council issued the opinions on doing a good job in cross cycle regulation and further stabilizing foreign trade. The Ministry of Commerce determined 2022 as the "year of foreign trade consolidation and improvement", and further issued relevant policies to stabilize foreign demand.
Peng Wensheng: the probability of monetary policy will be adjusted flexibly according to the economic operation, and there is still room for further reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates. Active fiscal policy and policy finance are the focus of steady growth this year. In addition to traditional infrastructure, green investment, tax reduction and fee reduction and transfer payment are also important directions for policy development. It is believed that policies conducive to economic stability will continue to be introduced and effective. The introduction of contractive policies will be cautious, and the possibility of overlapping regulatory policies in relevant industries will be greatly reduced.
Shen Jianguang: under the guidance of firmly adhering to the "two unwavering" and correctly understanding and grasping the characteristics and behavior laws of capital, the platform economic supervision system with equal emphasis on standardization and development will be gradually improved, which will contribute to the long-term and healthy development of the platform economy and boost the expectation and confidence of enterprises.
more investment opportunities will emerge
Q: as China's economy continues to move towards high-quality development, what new investment opportunities will all parties usher in?
Liu Yuanchun: first, China's scientific and technological self-reliance and self-improvement must break through various "neck sticking" problems and focus on scientific and technological innovation and basic research and development; Second, the construction of a new development pattern needs to make up for the shortcomings of China's industrial chain and supply chain; Third, the outline of the 14th five year plan has identified 102 major projects, which will be implemented in an orderly manner; Fourth, during the "14th five year plan" period, China will cross the middle-income trap, and the demand in the consumption field characterized by high quality, new varieties and emphasis on services will rise rapidly; Fifth, the vast central and western regions will further complete industrialization and urbanization. These aspects are pregnant with strong investment demand.
Peng Wensheng: as China moves towards high-quality development, industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading are investment opportunities worthy of attention. Driven by scientific and technological innovation, China's manufacturing industry will continue the momentum of industrial upgrading and gradually move from low and medium value-added industries to medium and high value-added industries. There is a broad space for "double carbon" investment; Under the policy framework of common prosperity, residents' income has increased more evenly, and the trend of Rural Revitalization and consumption upgrading deserves attention.
Shen Jianguang: in recent years, the investment in high-tech industry has maintained a good growth momentum. The investment in new infrastructure such as 5g base station construction, UHV, intercity high-speed railway and urban rail transit, new energy vehicle charging pile, big data center, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet will continue to increase, and the transformation of digital economy and informatization and intelligence will accelerate, Investment in advanced manufacturing is expected to continue. For example, in the field of digital economy, investment opportunities in digital infrastructure construction, data element sharing, industrial digital transformation, digital industrialization upgrading and smart city construction will continue to emerge.
the real estate market will maintain steady and healthy development
Q: how should we view the risk situation and future development of the real estate market?
Liu Yuanchun: in 2022, China's real estate will stabilize under the readjustment of a series of policies. The real estate market based on the long-term mechanism will maintain stable and healthy development. The rigid demand for housing is still strong, the demand for improvement is relatively strong, and the long-term stable and healthy development of real estate has fundamental support.
Peng Wensheng: since the fourth quarter of last year, the financial support of real estate has been increasing, the normal financing needs of real estate enterprises have been met, the investment of housing mortgage has been significantly increased and accelerated, the decline of housing sales has shown signs of stabilizing, and the month on month decline of house prices has also narrowed. There are various signs that the policy is helping the healthy development of the real estate market. The credit default events of individual problem real estate enterprises will not have a systematic impact, and the risks are being cleared out in an orderly manner.
Shen Jianguang: "housing without speculation" will still be the main line of China's real estate policy. In the future, the policy regulation will better coordinate the steady growth and risk prevention, and implement policies according to the city to promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of real estate.
capital market development opportunities outweigh challenges
Q: in 2022, the uncertainty of global financial market operation will increase. What is the development prospect of China's capital market?
Liu Yuanchun: in 2022, although the global financial market has strong uncertainty, China's capital market still has the basis and conditions for relatively independent, sustained and healthy development.
First, the stable and positive situation of China's economy has laid the foundation for the healthy development of the capital market. According to the prediction of some institutions, China's GDP growth rate will still be 5.2% to 5.6% in 2022, 1.3 to 1.5 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of developed countries; Second, the liquidity support in 2022 will be abundant, and the overall liquidity environment of the capital market is expected to be better than that in 2021; Third, the continuous reform has laid a solid institutional foundation for the smooth operation of the capital market; Fourth, China's macroeconomic and financial cycles are not synchronized with those of the United States, and China's macroeconomic and financial markets will remain relatively independent.
Peng Wensheng: we judge that opportunities outweigh risks in China's capital market in 2022. China's steady growth policy has been gradually strengthened and growth has been gradually improved, which is opposite to the cycle of tightening overseas policies and downward growth; The overall valuation of the stock market is not high, and the liquidity environment is relatively abundant; Policies such as encouraging scientific and technological innovation and vigorously developing the capital market will help stimulate vitality and unleash potential. At the same time, under the capital market reform and opening-up measures, the proportion of household financial asset allocation has increased, which is conducive to the long-term and healthy development of the capital market.
Shen Jianguang: in recent years, with the continuous implementation of the policy of "building systems, non intervention and zero tolerance", the market ecology has been continuously improved and institutional investors have been increasing. Among them, there are many foreign investment institutions. In the future, China's market conditions and institutional environment will be further improved, China's capital market will be more attractive for investment, and RMB will become a more valuable asset in the world.
