I. global market:
before and after the Spring Festival holiday, the world's major stock indexes generally rose
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global stock markets: this week (January 31 to February 4), US stocks rose first and then down. US stocks Nasdaq, S & P 500 and Dow Jones rose 1.58%, 1.55% and 1.05% respectively.
Hong Kong stocks rose sharply on the first trading day of the year of the tiger: in the Asia Pacific stock index, the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng Index rose 2.70% and 4.34% respectively this week. February 4 was the first trading day of the year of the tiger for Hong Kong stocks. The Hang Seng index opened higher and closed up 3.24%.
around the Spring Festival holiday, the world's major stock indexes generally rose
Data source: wind, open source Securities Research Institute
commodities: from January 31 to February 4, in terms of crude oil, WTI crude oil price rose 4.15% to US $91.81/barrel, and gold rose slightly by 0.63% to US $1808.8/ounce.
around the Spring Festival holiday, WTI crude oil prices rose
Data source: wind, open source Securities Research Institute
before and after the Spring Festival holiday, Comex gold prices rose
Data source: wind, open source Securities Research Institute
II. Overseas events & data
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(1) the number of non farm payrolls in the United States increased by 467000 in January, far exceeding expectations: the number of non farm payrolls in the United States increased by 467000 in January, the largest increase since October last year, estimated at 150000, up from the previous value of 190000 to 510000. On February 4 local time, the Federal Reserve announced the appointment of Jerome Powell as interim chairman to wait for the approval of the US Senate on Powell's nomination for re-election as chairman of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve said in a statement on the same day that the appointment will take effect on the 5th, which will enable Powell to continue to perform his duties after the end of his first four-year term as chairman of the Federal Reserve.
(2) the European Central Bank predicts that the inflation rate in the eurozone will fall to 3% this year: the quarterly professional forecast survey report released by the European Central Bank shows that the overall inflation rate in the eurozone will fall to 3% this year and further fall to 1.8% next year, reaching the standard of 2% set by the European Central Bank.
(3) the Bank of England raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.50%: the Bank of England raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.50%. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee unanimously agreed to end corporate bond purchases.
(4) euro zone CPI hit a new high in January: euro zone CPI in January increased by 5.1% year-on-year, another record high, with an expected increase of 4.4% and a previous increase of 5%. In January, the CPI of the euro zone increased by 0.3% month on month, with an expected decrease of 0.4% and a previous increase of 0.4%.
(5) global manufacturing PMI fell continuously: according to the data released by China Federation of logistics and procurement on February 6, the global manufacturing PMI in January 2022 decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 54.7% compared with the previous month, and fell month on month for two consecutive months. In terms of subregions, the manufacturing PMI in Europe was the same as that in the previous month, the manufacturing PMI in Asia and Africa decreased slightly compared with the previous month, and the manufacturing PMI in the Americas decreased significantly compared with the previous month. From the change of global manufacturing PMI, the index remains above 54%, indicating that the recovery trend of global manufacturing industry is still continuing.
III. China events & data
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(1) the total box office of 2022 Spring Festival new films (including point shows) exceeded 5.5 billion: according to the cat's eye professional microblog, the total box office of 2022 Spring Festival new films (including point shows) exceeded 5.5 billion at 11:00 on February 6, 2022. At present, the top three at the box office are: shuimen bridge of Changjin lake, 2.147 billion, the killer is not too calm, 1.121 billion and miracle stupid child, 551 million.
(2) in January, the PMI of manufacturing industry decreased by 0.2 percentage points, the domestic demand on the demand side decreased, and the external demand rebounded offline. compared with December, new orders decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3%, new export orders rebounded by 0.3 percentage points to 48.4%, and the supply-demand gap measured by new orders and inventory indicators rebounded slightly. In January, supply expansion slowed down, the pressure of insufficient demand was still on, prices rebounded significantly, and the overall economic activity decreased.
(3) national development and Reform Commission: it is expected that CPI will continue to rise moderately in 2022, and PPI growth may gradually decline. on February 6, the price department of the national development and Reform Commission issued a document pointing out that looking forward to 2022, the exogenous epidemic impact may gradually weaken, and the price operation is expected to depend more on economic endogenous factors. Internationally, high global inflation may remain for some time, but with the shift of monetary policy in major economies and the narrowing of the gap between supply and demand, international commodity prices continue to rise sharply, the momentum is insufficient, and the inflationary pressure is expected to weaken marginally. From the perspective of China, China's economy has continued to recover and develop, the supply of industrial and agricultural products and services is abundant, the supply of important livelihood commodities such as grain, oil, meat, eggs, milk, fruits and vegetables is sufficient, the guarantee of basic energy such as coal, oil and gas is strong, and the ability to effectively deal with abnormal market price fluctuations has been significantly enhanced. According to the comprehensive research and judgment, there is a solid foundation for the stable operation of China's prices in 2022. It is expected that the CPI will continue to rise moderately, the increase of PPI may gradually decline, and the price trend of upstream and downstream will become more coordinated.
(4) according to the statistics of the data center of the Ministry of culture and tourism, three days before the Spring Festival holiday, the demand for short-range travel, rural travel, ice and snow travel, urban leisure, visiting relatives and friends and other tourism gradually released, and the passenger flow in historical and cultural blocks, tourism and leisure blocks and major urban cultural venues increased. the total number of Chinese tourists in China is 137 million, which is restored to 71.5% in the same period of the Spring Festival holiday in 2019 according to a comparable standard; China's tourism revenue reached 167.849 billion yuan.
IV. open source gold stocks, recommended in February
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On March 2, 2020, the financial engineering team of open source securities released a special report: "fine structure of momentum in A-share industry", which cut the industry momentum from vertical and horizontal dimensions. The core issue raised in the report is: the momentum effect of the industry is weak, while the golden law model cuts vertically on the time axis, separating two contradictory components: intraday momentum and overnight reversal, and taking "intraday return overnight return" as a new proxy variable.
The answer of the leading stock model is to cut horizontally in the constituent stocks and split two contradictory components: the momentum of leading stocks and the reversal of common stocks, and take "the return of leading stocks - the return of common stocks" as the new proxy variable. According to the golden law factor and leading factor, grade the primary industry index with equal weight, and select the 9 industries with the highest scores as the multi industry portfolio every month, and the benchmark portfolio is the equal weight portfolio of 28 industries. based on the data as of January 26, 2022, it is estimated that the industry bulls in February are: commercial retail, real estate, household appliances, medicine and biology, building materials, coal, computer, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery.
open source gold stocks, recommended in February
Data source: wind, open source Securities Research Institute
The content comes from "open source gold stocks, recommended in February - special topic of investment strategy"
Risk warning: the macro environment, industry development or company situation is not as expected; Model calculation error.
V. list of important research contents during the Spring Festival holiday
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[total perspective]
[Financial Engineering] transaction behavior factor performance monthly report (January 2022)
[Financial Engineering] monthly report on asset allocation (February 2022)
[small and medium-sized] three board hierarchical management measures were revised, and the first share transferred to the board of Beijing stock exchange was born
[medium and small cap] stock transfer system hierarchical management measures were revised, and the capacity expansion accelerator of Beijing stock exchange was turned on
[industry stocks]
The purchase amount of [non bank finance] has a greater impact on ownership, and the market share of independent third parties continues to increase
[Medicine] the traditional Chinese medicine sector is expected to enjoy policy dividends for a long time, and is optimistic about the prospects of pharmacies and devices
[business retail] several e-commerce platforms released annual goods Festival reports to highlight the new consumption trend
[food and beverage] Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) (600779. SH): the high growth of the whole year ended, and the marketing reform made a phased breakthrough
[Medicine] Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600535) (600535. SH): disposal of i-mab equity, net profit increased significantly
[Computer] Piesat Information Technology Co.Ltd(688066) (688066. SH): net profit is growing rapidly, and 2022 is worth looking forward to
[small and medium cap] Ju Guang Technology (688167. SH) achieved high performance growth, which was in line with expectations, and lidar promoted performance take-off
[food and beverage] Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) (600872. SH): the performance forecast is higher than expected, and we will make steady progress in 2022
