A shares will make their debut in the year of the tiger tomorrow!
China Securities News · China Securities Taurus reporter found that at present, a number of head securities companies, including Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) , Anxin securities and China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , have released the latest strategic views. They are optimistic about the trend of A-Shares after the festival. They believe that the tightening of overseas currencies is expected to pass the peak stage by stage, and the rebound of peripheral markets has boosted the sentiment of A-share market The gradual approach of the “bottom of growth” and other factors will jointly promote A-Shares to usher in the year of the tiger.
How should February be arranged? Relevant securities companies believe that varieties with relatively low fundamental expectations or valuations and areas with good policy margins deserve attention, and the subdivision direction is optimistic about new energy, automobile, food and beverage, etc.
the market is expected to gradually recover after the festival
During the closing of A-share market during the Spring Festival, major events and market performance in the peripheral market are undoubtedly the focus of Chinese investors. In terms of the most concerned liquidity changes, the European Central Bank recently announced that the three key interest rates would remain unchanged, and the Bank of England raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.50%, in line with market expectations; A number of Fed officials made speeches to further strengthen the expectation of raising interest rates in March. The higher than expected number of new jobs in ADP in January also boosted the market expectation of raising interest rates to a certain extent.
According to Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , the current expectation of overseas currency tightening has reached its peak stage by stage. Overseas investors have fully predicted the operation idea of the Federal Reserve at least in the first half of the year, and the Federal Reserve has achieved the purpose of controlling inflation expectation stage by stage. It is likely that there will be no more hawkish expression than market expectation. The “emotional bottom” of the market has appeared before the festival, and the “market bottom” is gradually approaching.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities pointed out that during the Spring Festival, with the digestion of the negative impact of liquidity expectations, US stocks stabilized and rebounded. At the same time, considering that A-Shares have gradually priced the changes of liquidity expectations before the festival, the negative impact margin of overseas liquidity expectations will continue to weaken in the future. Overall, the market is expected to gradually recover after the Spring Festival.
It is not difficult to understand the trend of the peripheral market during the Spring Festival and read the recovery of market confidence. The data show that since January 28 local time, the three major stock indexes of US stocks have shown an obvious rebound trend, and the main stock indexes in Europe have also shown a shock or slight upward trend; In the Asia Pacific market, the main stock indexes of Japan and South Korea stopped falling and stabilized, and Hong Kong stocks rebounded strongly on January 31 and February 4.
In the view of Anxin securities, after the adjustment of the Spring Festival, the negative emotions of the market have been fully released. During the Spring Festival, the external market has generally rebounded to boost the risk preference of the A share market. At present, the market has entered the late stage of bottom grinding, the short-term market risk appetite has warmed up, and the probability of further decline is very low. The market after the festival is expected to make a good start in the year of the tiger.
steady growth and overweight boost a good start
Although from the perspective of liquidity, China is facing the pressure of global liquidity tightening, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities believes that China’s current easing cycle is not over due to China’s economic fundamentals cycle and policy independence, and the current strong RMB exchange rate will provide greater support for the independence and flexibility of China’s monetary policy, We also have confidence in the stabilization and rebound of the market after the festival.
It is found that the continuation of China’s relatively loose liquidity situation is the consensus of many securities companies, and whether the “steady growth” policy will be overweight after the festival has become a more noteworthy and expected topic compared with the change of peripheral monetary policy.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) pointed out that since January, local governments have held two local meetings to deploy government work in the new year. From the economic growth targets set by provinces and cities, local governments have strong determination to “stabilize growth”, and common prosperity, digital economy and low-carbon environmental protection are also the work priorities of high frequency. At present, the “policy bottom” of A-Shares has been basically confirmed, and the “emotional bottom” may see the strength and rhythm of steady growth policies appear in the near future. The “growth bottom” is also gradually approaching, and the overall economic growth is expected to gradually bottom out and pick up in the first half of the year. Under this background, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the Chinese market.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) also pointed out that the intensive implementation of the “steady growth” policy from the Spring Festival to the two sessions will be one of the important factors supporting the successful start of the A-share Festival, which will also alleviate market concerns. The undervalued value stocks with the intersection of “steady growth” and “double carbon” deserve attention.
Under the steady growth policy, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that the spring market of A-Shares can be expected. Referring to the market law over the years, spring may also be a better window period; The probability of A-share market in 2022 will be a volatile market rather than a bear market.
Nuggets undervalued value and policy support direction
Based on the current situation, how should future investors choose the layout?
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is suggested to actively lay out high-quality blue chips around “two low positions”: first, the varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be relatively low, including aviation and hotels, as well as the midstream manufacturing industry suppressed by cost problems in the early stage, such as automobiles and photovoltaic wind power equipment; The second is the varieties with relatively low valuation, including high-quality developers, building materials and household enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, Hong Kong stock Internet leaders after the impact, and fine chemical enterprises with the ability to launch new businesses such as new materials.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that at present, we should pay attention to three directions: first, the areas with potential support for marginal changes or force of policies, including infrastructure, industrial chains related to stable demand of real estate (construction, building materials, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.), securities companies, etc; Second, select stocks from bottom to top in the middle and lower reaches of consumption, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, Internet, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, medicine, etc; The opportunity for the full growth of the manufacturing sector in the first three quarters of last year may not be the time for the full growth of the market.
Combined with the performance forecast of the 2021 annual report of listed companies, Anxin Securities pointed out that the internal fundamental differentiation of the high boom track has begun to appear. The leading companies with global competitiveness and dominant position in the industrial chain can best benefit from the high boom of the industry, and the companies with low valuation and increasingly prominent competitive advantages are the primary varieties of investment. In February, the industry configuration recommended new energy, electronics, automobiles, food and beverage, computers, chemicals, banks and securities companies
