Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : A-share overshoot brings a better time point for the layout in the first half of the year
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the collapse of the high-level group in January triggered a capital chain reaction, and the peak of market liquidity pressure before the festival has appeared; The credit inflection point still needs time to be verified. There are many highlights in the annual report forecast. At present, it is the bottom of the fundamental expectation; The effect of the long Spring Festival holiday is superimposed on overseas risk concerns. There is an excessive release of risk concentration before the festival, and the bottom of sentiment has also appeared. The policy bottom has long been clear. Under the resonance of “emotional bottom” and “market bottom”, the overshoot of A-Shares has brought a better time point for the layout in the first half of the year. It is suggested to actively layout around two low positions to meet the starting point of the market. Specifically, it includes: 1) varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be relatively low, focusing on midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems in the early stage, such as automobiles, photovoltaic wind power equipment, aviation and hotels whose fundamentals are expected to be still low; 2) For the varieties whose valuation is still relatively low, it is recommended to pay attention to the high-quality developers, building materials and home furnishing enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, the Internet leaders of Hong Kong stocks after the impact of medium concept stocks, and the fine chemical enterprises with the ability to develop new businesses such as new materials.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: the negative factors before the festival have been weakening, and the position was actively increased in the beginning of the year
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that the A-share tiger year is about to start, and the negative factors before the festival have been gradually weakened. The market will gradually recover with the upward revision of positive factors and actively increase positions at the beginning of the year. 1) At the current time point, the negative factors before the festival have been significantly weakened. Before the holiday, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates continued to increase, and the global equity market continued to adjust. However, during the Spring Festival, with the digestion of the negative impact of liquidity expectations, US stocks stabilized and rebounded. The adjustment of US stocks on Thursday was mainly due to the drag on the performance of heavyweights rather than the change of liquidity expectations. At the same time, considering that A-Shares have gradually priced the changes of liquidity expectations before the festival, the negative impact margin of overseas liquidity expectations will continue to weaken in the future. In addition, in terms of risk appetite, the geopolitical conflict between overseas Russia and Ukraine is alleviated, the credit risk of China’s real estate will also be gradually implemented, and the negative factors at the denominator end are significantly weakened. 2) Positive factors will be gradually revised upward. In January, the local two sessions were held one after another, with strong demands for steady growth. Many governments raised the target growth rate of fixed asset investment in 2022, and infrastructure and manufacturing will become an important starting point. With the approach of the national two sessions in March, the steady growth policy will be accelerated and put into force. 3) In addition, from the perspective of calendar effect, it can also be observed that the market performance after the Spring Festival over the years is significantly better than that before the Spring Festival. On the whole, the market is expected to gradually warm up after the Spring Festival and actively increase positions at the beginning of the year.
industry configuration: grasp consumption and infrastructure. According to the order of growth and the marginal improvement of profitability, the industry configuration recommends: 1) consumption: accelerate the expected bottom, recommend the direction of pig, household appliances, furniture, social service / tourism, Baijiu and so on with supporting performance and negative expectation. 2) Infrastructure: improve infrastructure investment, help “revitalize infrastructure” exceed expectations in the future, and recommend building materials, construction, power operation and other directions; 3) Finance: securities companies and banks; 4) Consumer electronics.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: market concerns are expected to subside after the festival, and “internal loosening” is greater than external tightening
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) believes that this year’s market will usher in a year in which economic fundamentals will go down first and then up, and the steady growth policy will be high before and low after. The fluctuation of policy and profit expectation may lead to wide fluctuations in the market. Factors such as tightening global liquidity, downward pressure on profits and fulfillment of policy stimulus expectations may suppress the market in the first half of the year. However, with the stabilization and recovery of the economy, the gradual improvement of the epidemic and the inflow of incremental funds into the market, A-Shares are also expected to rise again. Throughout the year, it is expected to defend first and then attack, and the opportunity in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half of the year.
At present, the market sentiment has reached the lowest point in nearly three years, the main stock indexes and industries have been fully adjusted, and there is a rebound foundation in the follow-up. Although the current China US monetary policy cycle is in a “dislocation period” and China is facing the pressure of global liquidity tightening, China’s current easing cycle is not over due to China’s economic fundamentals cycle and policy independence. For a shares, we believe that the impact of “internal loosening” is greater than that of “external tightening”, The current strong RMB exchange rate will provide greater support for the independence and flexibility of China’s monetary policy. Therefore, although the current market has a lot of worries about the future market, we are still confident in the stabilization and rebound of the market after the festival.
it is suggested to grasp the three lines of counterattack: 1) wide currency and wide credit continue to increase, and the stable growth market will continue to deduce; 2) At present, the high prosperity of some high-quality growth stocks is still supported by fundamentals, and the valuation contraction is expected to come to an end. The market began to respond to the expectations of the first quarterly report, and ushered in a counterattack after further verification of fundamentals; 3) The global Omicron epidemic has ushered in an inflection point. Some consumer varieties currently greatly affected by the epidemic are expected to benefit from the improvement of the epidemic and the support of China’s policy of expanding domestic demand. Focus on industries: new energy, food and beverage, electronics, banking, real estate, construction, etc.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the spring market is just late and will not be absent
Since new year’s day, the expected spring market has not appeared, but the market has fallen continuously. So far, wandequan a has fallen nearly 10%, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen 8%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has fallen 8%, and the gem index has fallen 12%. Some investors are worried about whether the spring market is gone and whether the whole year will move towards a bear market. Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that the probability of this year’s whole year is to shake the market, and the market in spring is just late and will not be absent.
① compared with the beginning of 2008, 11 and 18, the current stock market valuation is low and the policy is loose. This year’s probability is not a bear market, but more likely a rest year in a long bull, which is a volatile market. ② The market decline in January was due to concerns about China’s steady growth, overseas interest rate hikes and tense relations between Russia and Ukraine. The disturbance is dissipating. The market in spring is just late and will not be absent. ③ Steady growth spring market tends to grow after value, such as undervalued financial real estate and high prosperity hard technology (new infrastructure).
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : after the A-share Festival, it is recommended to lay out low peg technology + the intersection of “steady growth” and “double carbon”
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) said that the changes of three major factors will support the A shares to make a good start. (1) the short-term market has fully priced the expectation of the Fed’s interest rate increase; (2) From the Spring Festival to the two sessions, the “steady growth” policy will be implemented intensively; (3) The “negative feedback” of judging the position reduction of absolute return products is basically over. It is suggested to actively layout the A-share market after the festival: in addition to the real estate / infrastructure chain that we prompted in the early stage and obtained significant excess returns, we can also focus on low peg technology stocks and value stocks with the intersection of “steady growth” and “double carbon” (the traditional capacity of state-owned enterprises “low-carbon transformation” plus leverage).
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : the four conditions for a good start have been met
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that at present, the four conditions for a “good start” have been met: first, the release of overseas risks is coming to an end, and the global resonance of the holiday is upward.
Since the beginning of the year, the sharp decline in overseas markets has continued to inhibit the performance of a shares. However, during the Spring Festival holiday, the overall performance of the overseas market is good. The market gradually digested the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates, and the overall risk appetite rebounded. For a shares, the pre holiday market has been significantly corrected, the trading volume has shrunk significantly, the risk aversion has been fully released, and the strong performance of peripheral markets is expected to boost the risk appetite of Chinese investors after the holiday. Condition 2: China’s loose policies continue to be implemented. Recently, the national development and Reform Commission said that it would “firmly implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand” and called for “efforts to release consumer demand” and “promote rational growth of investment”. Condition 3: fund issuance has warmed up, institutions have fully started self purchase, and the pattern of stock game has improved. Since late January, fund issuance has been picking up. From January 17 to 28, partial equity funds issued 75.4 billion new shares, with a total of 102.8 billion issued in the whole month, basically returning to the normal level to provide incremental funds for the market. At the same time, the self purchase scale of the fund has also increased significantly. Although historically, the large-scale self purchase of public funds is not equal to the bottom reading model, the large-scale self purchase of funds is often one of the important bottom signals after the sharp decline of the market. Condition 4: the congestion of popular tracks falls back to a low level. Combined with the five congestion indicators of transaction proportion / transaction volume, turnover rate, the proportion of individual stocks on the 30 day moving average, financing buying sentiment and the number of research reports, the congestion degree of the new energy sector has dropped significantly in the “new half army”, and most of the congestion indicators have been significantly lower than the lower limit of the threshold; The congestion degree of semiconductor sector has also been greatly reduced, and the congestion index has been lower than or close to the lower threshold; The trading congestion of the military industry sector has also dropped significantly compared with the previous period, and most indicators have also dropped to above and below the average.
therefore, we judge that after the festival, with the gradual mitigation of risks at home and abroad, the continuous implementation of loose policies, the gradual improvement of the stock game pattern, and the congestion of popular tracks falling below the low level, the market will usher in a “good start”.
Investment strategy: on the one hand, grasp the undervalued repair market of Finance and real estate, on the other hand, lay out “small high-tech” with long-term fighting short and bargain hunting. For a long time, focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) Biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : A shares will develop first and then restrain. Look at this round of spring market rationally
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that A-Shares are gradually digesting negative factors and are expected to rebound after the festival. 1) Overseas, the tone of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in January is “Eagle”, but the current market expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase is relatively sufficient, and the overseas policy shift will not restrict China’s monetary policy orientation; 2) In terms of micro liquidity of the stock market, public funds have started self purchase since January. At the same time, the purchase restrictions of popular fund products have been gradually liberalized, and the incremental funds after the festival are expected to flow into a shares; 3) During the Spring Festival, the overseas stock markets are in danger, China’s steady growth policy will continue to work, and the risk appetite of the A-share market will also be repaired; 4) At present, the overall valuation of A-Shares is reasonable. The valuation of most Shenwan class industries is below the median since 2010, with a certain margin of safety.
February A-share investment suggestion: A-share deduces “developing first and restraining later”, and rationally looks at the current round of spring market. since the beginning of the year, the risk appetite of the A-share market has continued to weaken under the expectation of tightening overseas monetary policy and the disturbance of risk aversion factors before the capital holiday. During the Spring Festival, overseas stock markets were in danger, and most of the world’s major stock indexes rose. At the same time, China’s policy level repeatedly called for “steady growth”, and the market sentiment after the festival is expected to be repaired. In addition, the recent public offering to open self purchase and the liberalization of purchase restrictions of popular funds will help the inflow of incremental funds into A-Shares after the festival. A shares are expected to meet the “oversold rebound” in February. In view of the current hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve and the strong expectation of contraction of overseas monetary policy, the global risk assets will still be disturbed before the landing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in March. It is expected that A-Shares are still dominated by structural market. It is suggested to treat this round of spring market rationally. In terms of allocation, we should pay attention to three main lines: 1) real estate and its upstream and downstream industrial chain benefiting from the marginal improvement of real estate policy; 2) Strong themes that benefit from policy (support), such as new energy (vehicle), digital economy and seed industry; 3) Pig breeding sector reversed at the bottom of pig cycle, etc.
Guosheng Securities: there is no agitation, but there is no need to be pessimistic. The market of the Lunar New Year may open
Guosheng Securities believes that, first, the recent fluctuations in US bond interest rates have converged, overseas risk appetite has stabilized and warmed up, and the peripheral shocks have been basically released; Secondly, with the successive landing of interest rate and reserve requirement cuts in recent years, macro liquidity has been further abundant; The amount of public offering has stabilized and rebounded since mid January, and the lack of incremental funds in the short term is expected to be alleviated; Moreover, with the recent decline in the interest rates of the stock market and treasury bonds, the equity risk premium of the broad-based index has risen to + 1 times the standard deviation area, and the cost performance of stock bond allocation has gradually emerged; Finally, historical experience shows that the market risk appetite has improved significantly from the Spring Festival to the two sessions, and the overall performance of A-Shares is not poor. considering all factors, it is expected that the decline of the market in the short term has entered the final stage, and the market will open in February for the lunar new year.
The short-term style may enter the balance period, and the high and undervalued values are expected to usher in a resonant rebound. In the medium term, steady growth is still the main line at the quarterly level. In the short term, growth stocks are expected to usher in a weekly oversold rebound, and the market style has entered a balance period. In the medium-term dimension, with the stabilization of the credit environment, the upward repair of the m1-ppi scissors gap, and the expected warming of policy sustainability at the time of increasing growth pressure in the first half of the year, under the fundamental pricing logic, steady growth will still be the largest beta main line in Q1, and value stocks are expected to continue to lead.
Strategic suggestions and industry recommendations: (1) credit conditions have been stabilized in a real sense, m1-ppi continues to be repaired upward, there is room for further easing policies, and steady growth is still the largest beta main line in Q1. High quality banks, state-owned enterprise developers and buildings / building materials are recommended; （2） After the festival, the market risk appetite is expected to improve, and the short-term dimension recommends the communication and computer driven by the concept of digital economy in the direction of new infrastructure development; （3） Home appliances with reversed upstream costs and airports benefiting from the opening-up policy.
Minsheng Securities: waiting for the upward force of the market, looking forward to spring
Minsheng Securities said that there must be a “time lag” in the steady growth and wide credit policy itself, and the trading logic of the market is the expectation run – the verification of fundamentals, which caused the fluctuation of stock price. The total amount of financial data in December has improved, but the structure is poor. However, it should be recognized that the stabilization of the total amount will be the verification of policy promotion, and the optimization of future structure is the source of new consensus. Investors can “follow the general trend and counter the small trend”: the current difference in inflation levels between China and the United States makes China finally able to exchange upward inflation for the recovery of economic growth. At present, it is more to wait for positive signals after adjustment and the formation of a new consensus in the market. It is worth noting that the performance resilience of the financial and middle and upper reaches sectors in the fourth quarter is different from the sharp decline in performance in the past during the economic recession. Under the change of trend, we should pay attention to the performance elasticity in the process of future demand recovery.
The contraction of credit, economic downturn and overseas inflationary pressure have deeply troubled investors in the whole market since 2022. Whether it is value or growth, few people are “alone”.
In the future, the probability of China’s demand recovery and inflation recovery is still increasing. There will be no contradiction between long inflation and long demand in the short term, and the longer-term perspective may be differentiated. Recommended: nonferrous metals (copper, aluminum, gold), banks, crude oil (oil and gas exploitation, oil transportation), coal, real estate and steel. On the theme, Rural Revitalization (digital government, county consumption) is recommended.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : after oversold, it may rebound in a short term or in stages, and continue to layout the “three lows”
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that there may be a short-term or phased rebound after the oversold, but looking forward to February to March, we think it is not a good opportunity to attack. We will patiently wait for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and continue to explore the stable growth chain and travel chain with the characteristics of “three lows”, At the same time, reserve new growth chains represented by science and Innovation Board (domestic substitution represented by semiconductors and specialized special innovation, intelligent driving, industrial intelligence represented by industrial software, etc.). Among them, for the “three low” direction, in terms of steady growth, pay attention to banks, real estate, construction, household appliances, roads, etc; In terms of travel chain, it pays attention to airports, airlines, hotels, etc.
On February 4, the US non farm payrolls released in January, further enhancing the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates. Earlier, at the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in January, Powell released hawkish signals. In this context, we believe that we should pay attention to the disturbance of the Fed’s interest rate hike in the first half of the year.
During the Fed’s interest rate hike cycle since 1990, the trends of US stocks, A-Shares and Hong Kong stocks can be found: (1) US stocks often adjust in the early or late stage of interest rate hike; (2) During the period of US stock adjustment, A-Shares and Hong Kong stocks are often affected by stages, but the impact is different.
Annual report forecast and Q1 forward-looking clues: in terms of the forecast of the 21st Annual Report, from the perspective of exceeding expectations, the proportion of exceeding expectations companies in non silver, beauty care, coal, environmental protection, household appliances, medicine and other industries ranks first. Looking forward to the first quarter report of 22 years, combined with our calculation caliber, the industries with the highest year-on-year growth rate and month on month improvement include transportation, non-ferrous metals, coal, media, automobile, communication, commerce and retail, medicine, non bank, etc.
